Iran s Missiles Current and Future Implications for Europe

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Iran’s Missile: Current and Future Implications for Europe Uzi Rubin 12 th Space and Missile Defense Conference, Huntsville Alabama • Iran’s armament policy. • Highlights in Iran’s missile and space programs. • Analysis of the recent East. West Institute report on Iran’s missile capabilities. • Conclusions. Based on open source material. Copyright Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 1 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Iran Army Day Parade April 2008 Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 2 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Iran Army Day Parade 2008 - IAF Flyby Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 3 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe ” “Musudan/BM 25 ? Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 4 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Iran’s Achievements in Missiles and Space From Unguided Rockets to PGM: The Fatah 110 Heavy Guided Rocket Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 5 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Iran’s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology From 1300 Km Shahab 3 to 2000 Km Kadir 1 2007 Shahab 3 1998 Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 6 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Iran’s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology From Land Mobility to Silo Basing Credit: Jane’s Missile Review Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 7 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Iran’s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology From Single Stage Ballistic Missiles to Multi Stage Space Launch Vehicles Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting Safir Space Launch Vehicle Kavoshgar test vehicle 8 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Iran’s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology Iran’s SLV Achieves Earth Orbit, February 3 rd 2009 Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 9 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Iran’s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology From Scud Era Technology to Modern Solid Propellant Technology • Novermber 2007: “Ashura” test announced by Iran’s Mo. D, no images released. • November 18 th 2008: “Sejjil” test announced by Iran’s Mod, Images released and interviews granted. • Declared range: “More than 2000 Km” Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 10 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe The East. West Institute Report of May 19 2009 “There is no reliable information at present on the state of Iran’s effort to develop solid propellant rocket motors and therefore no basis on which to make an assessment…. ” (3. 3) Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 11 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Key Claims On Iran’s Missile Program • “Iran does not have the infrastructure of research institutes, industrial plants or the scientists and engineers that are needed to make substantial improvement in the basic rocket components it used from the start” (3. 15) • “The major problems that have to be solved in building IRBM and ICBMs: a. The development of powerful rocket motors. b. Flight controls, guidance systems and telemetry. c. Reentry vehicle heat protection. d. Construction material. e. Flight testing. Each of these areas would pose major problems for Iran”(3. 20) • "Iran does not now have a missile capable of delivering a 1000 Kg payload to a range of 2000 Km“ (3. 21) • Iran’s longer range missiles “Will probably need a first stage consisting of a cluster of (liquid) rocket motors” and hence “large, visible, cumbersome. . fired from above ground, anchored to their launch sites and will take days to prepare for launch” (3. 22 and 3. 23) Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 12 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Sejil’s 3 rd Flight Test, May 20 th 2009 • “The missile will have a range of approximately 2000 to 2500 Km” (Robert Gates, Sec. Def) • “The test involved a solid propellant system which apparently they developed on their own” (Garry Saymor, NSC) Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 13 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Estimated Dimensions and Weights of Sejjil First Stage: 14. 720 ton (12, 5 tons of propellant) Second Stage: Warhead: 5. 78 ton ( 4, 9 tons of propellant) 1. 0 ton Take off weight: 21. 5 ton (Credit: Dr. T. Postol, Addendum to the EWI report) US 1 st generation solid propellant ballistic missiles: Polaris A 1: 1. 25 m Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 14. 5 ton Minuteman I: 33. 0 ton 14 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Pace of Development: Solid Propellant Missile November 2007: 1 st flight test of two stage solid propellant missile (Failure) May 2005: Iran’s Mo. D announces the successful development of two large solid propellant motors 2005 2006 2007 30 Months Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting May 2009: 3 st flight test (Success) st flight November 2008: 2 test (Failure) 12 Months 15 2009 2008 6 Mnths August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Pace of Development: Space Launch Vehicle July 2005: Iran Mo. D announce a forthcoming satellite launch “Within one year from green light” 2005 August 2008: 1 st Launch of “Safir” SLV (Failed in 2 nd stage) February 2008: Unveiling of “Safir” SLV, Launch of “Kavoshgar” vehicle (Failed in 1 st stage) 2006 2007 31 Months Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting February 2009: 2 nd Launch of “Safir” SLV (Success) 6 Mnths 16 2009 2008 6 Mnths August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Assessing Iran’s Current Proficiency • The development of powerful rocket motors: Demonstrated existence of infrastructure and skilled human resources to develop manufacture and test 10+ ton composite solid propellant rocket motors. • Flight controls, guidance systems and telemetry: Demonstrated capability to guide, control and successfully launch an indigenous SLV to earth orbit. • Reentry vehicle heat protection: Demonstrated capability of RV heat shielding both for Kadir 1 and Sajeel. • Construction material: None seem to be lacking, MTCR notwithstanding. • Flight testing: completed 6 major flight tests in 18 months (!) Impressive recovery from flight test malfunctions – evidence of ample telemetry, competent system engineering and energetic program management. Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 17 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Technical Addendum to the EWI Report, May 31 2009 Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 20 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Key Claims in the Technical Addendum • “The May 19 th report did not provide analysis of Iranian solid propellant missiles…(because) the available data was insufficient for serious analysis. ” • “On May 20 th Iran successfully tested a solid propellant missile… (which) makes it possible to provide detailed assessment. . ” • “The Sejjil should be able to carry a one ton warhead to a range of about 2200 Km. ” • To threaten Northern and Western Europe, Iran will need a 5000 Km missile with 1 ton warhead. Such a missile will require a first stage of 45 tons and will have a take off weight of 65 tons or more. • “The weight of US Minuteman III and Russia’s SS 27 is about 35 ton”. The large weight of the postulated Iranian IRBM will prevent it from being mobile. • The Sejjil technologies could not rapidly evolve into ballistic missiles with ranges that could threaten Europe of the continental United States. • The recent Sejjil test does not alter any of the EWI report’s main conclusions. Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 21 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Assessing Iran’s True Capabilities • Computations using the EWI Addendum figures for the Sejjil dimensions, weights and ISP figures yield a maximum range of 2500 Km. • This result was independently derived by US and Israeli teams. • Accordingly, Iran has already achieved the capability to target to 6 EU/ NATO member states Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 23 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Assessing Iran’s Potential Capabilities Using the EWI estimated ISP and Mass Fractions of Sejjil, two independent teams in the US and Israel calculated a significantly smaller 5000 Km “Super Sejjil” First Stage: Third Stage: 31. 83 ton 5, 78 ton Warhead: 1, 0 ton Take off weight: 38. 61 ton (Credit: D. Wilkening, CISAC, Stanford U) This missile will be 9 tons lighter than Russia’s fully mobile, 47. 2 ton SS 27 Topol M Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 24 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Relevant Ranges for Europe Threatening Missiles Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 25 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Relevant Ranges for Europe Threatening Missiles Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 26 August 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Conclusions 1. Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile and space programs at an almost feverish pace with impressive achievement. 2. In spite of the MTCR and in the face of sanctions, Iran has succeeded to acquire the needed infrastructure and to raise a cadre of proficient scientists and engineers backed by academy and research institutes. 3. The solid propellant Sejjil signifies a breakthrough. This missile is already a threat to a meaningful number of European Union countries. 4. Based on its demonstrated achievements in solid propulsion and staging, Iran will face no significant hurdle in upscaling the Sejjil into a compact, survivable IRBM. A range of 3600 km will be sufficient to put most of the EU under threat. 5. The EWI report estimates that it will take Iran six years to fit a nuclear warhead to a missile. If true, the time to start deploying missile defense in Europe is now. Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting 27 August 2009