Iran in 2030: The Future Demographic February 2011
Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Iran in 2030 Population Past, Present and Future Population Shift Ageing Men and Women in Iran Births and Deaths Diversity Population by Citizenship Cities Data 2
Iran in 2030 Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Summary Population: 89. 9 million Median age: 37. 5 years Life expectancy: 76. 1 years Fastest-growing major cities: 2010 -2030 1. Karaj 2. Orumiyeh 3. Mashhad 3
Iran in 2030 Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Population past, present and future Age Structure of the Population at a Glance: 1980 -2030 (Each dot represents a single-year age group) • In 2030, the population of Iran will reach • • Reading the chart: This “heat chart” depicts changes in the age structure of the population over time. Each dot represents the number of people in a specific (single year) age group in a given year. Accordingly, a dark red dot shows the largest concentration of people, by age, in a particular year while deep blue dots refer to the lowest concentrations. The areas of red therefore represent a large potential market in demographic terms. 89. 9 million, an increase of 19. 8% from 2010. This growth will be driven by huge increases in the population aged 40 and above which will expand by 108%. In 2030, the biggest opportunities will lie in targeting those aged between 35 and 50 as identified by the red “hotspot” on the chart. In 2030, there will be 26. 2 million Iranians in this age range accounting for almost 1 -in-3 of the population. There will also be a smaller but still important concentration of people aged between 15 and 20. Two age segments will be smaller in size in 2030 than they were in 2010 – the 0 -7 s and the 16 -34 s. These complex trends are the result of several factors including: a baby boom in the 1980 s and the subsequent fall in the number of births in the 1990 s, and an increase in the number of births in the 2000 s when the baby boomers of the 1980 s reached childbearing age. Iran’s large number of emigrants and immigrants further complicate the country’s demography. 4
Iran in 2030 Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Population shift • The population is expected to top 80 million in 2016. This will represent a doubling of the population since 1980. • Nevertheless, the rate of growth of the population is decelerating sharply decade by decade. In the 1980 s, it averaged 3. 9% per annum but by the 2020 s the rate of growth is expected to decelerate to 0. 8% per annum. • As birth rates fall, the number of those aged 0 -7 is expected to fall between 2010 and 2030. There should also be fewer Iranians aged 16 -34 in 2030 than there were in 2010. This decline is due to the sharp fall in the number of births in the 1990 s. The number of births in 2000 was 30. 8% lower than the figure in 1990. • Conversely, there will be an increase in all age groups over 34 in 2010 -2030; with a particularly sharp increase in those aged 40 -50. This is due to a baby boom which occurred in the 1980 s. During the 1980 s there was a total of 19, 912 births, compared to 15, 708 in the 1990 s. 5
Iran in 2030 Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Ageing • The population of Iran is ageing at a fast rate from a low base. The median age stood at 26. 7 years in 2010 and it is expected to be 37. 5 years in 2030. This contrasts sharply to earlier years – Iran had a median age of less than 20 years until 1997. • Although, the fastest growth in numbers is in those of middle age – 40 -50, the old are seeing strong gains in percentage terms. The population aged 65+ is expected to increase by 125% between 2010 and 2030, while the population aged 80+ is expected to increase by 59. 1% during this period. In actual terms the 80+ age group remains small, so this rate of growth translates to an increase of just 364, 021 people. • Life expectancy remains well below 80 years, but it is following a steady upwards trajectory. An Iranian born in 2010 could expect to live to 71. 9 years, whereas an Iranian born in 2030 should be able to live to 76. 1 years. • Despite this sharp ageing process, Iran remains a young country. There will still be double the number of 0 -14 year olds in 2030 than Iranians aged 65+. This is a sharp drop however from the peak of more than 14 0 -14 s to every person aged 65+ in 1988. 6
Iran in 2030 Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Men and women in Iran Age Pyramid: 2010 and 2030 • The age distribution of the Iranian population does • • not follow the traditional pyramid shape, nor the more rectangular shape of most developed economies. Rather it has a sharp bulge in those aged in their 20 s in 2010 and those in their 40 s in 2030. This is due to the baby boom seen in the 1980 s. The average of the female population will increase from 26. 8 years in 2010, to 38. 0 years in 2030. The equivalent figures for men are 26. 6 and 37. 0 years. The median age is first expected to surpass 30 in 2016 for women and 2017 for men. Those aged 20 -29 represented the largest age segments in 2010 for both men and women. While in 2030 those aged 40 -49 will become the largest age segments for both sexes. This is a natural result of the ageing process. Females are expected to outnumber males in each age group over 60 in 2030, below which the reverse is true except for a small segment aged 45 -50. Significant differences only emerge for those aged 80+ with 45. 0% more women than men. However, this age segment remains small, so this equates to only 180, 062 more women. This is due to higher female life expectancy. Females born in 2010 can expect to outlive men by 2. 8 years, increasing to 3. 5 years in 2030. This is due to healthier lifestyles amongst women. 7
Iran in 2030 Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Births and deaths • According to the UN, Iran has seen the sharpest fall in fertility rates in the world. The sharp fall in fertility is due to increased access to contraception as a result of a national programme for family planning and a rapid increase in the education of women of childbearing age. Fertility rates in rural areas have dropped particularly sharply - in one generation (around 30 years), rural Iranian women have moved from giving birth to an average of eight children to around two children. • Fertility rates first fell below replacement rate (2. 1 births per female) in 2003 and stood at 1. 8 births per female in 2010. After bottoming out in 2012, rates are expected to have increased slightly to 1. 9 births in 2030. These rates are among the lowest in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. • Birth rates are low and falling. They peaked in 1981 at 45. 4 births per ‘ 000 population. In 2010 they stood at 18. 5 per ‘ 000 inhabitants, by 2030 they are expected to fall to just 12. 3. However, they are not the lowest in the region – due to the high proportion of women of childbearing age. • As the population grows and ages the number of deaths is increasing. However, the death rate is declining and will not bottom out until 2018 when it will begin a slow climb as a result of the ageing population. In 2010, diseases of the circulatory system were the most common cause of death. 8
Iran in 2030 Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Diversity • Iran has witnessed both a huge influx of arrivals and a huge flow of outward migrants making for a complicated pattern of net migration. • Iran witnessed a wave of emigration of the educated middle classes during and immediately following the 1979 revolution which has continued to the present day. This brain drain has affected all the professions in Iran. The IMF estimates that Iran suffers from the highest brain drain in the world. The World Bank estimates that in 2000 the emigration rate of the tertiary educated population stood at 14. 5%. • Since the mid 1990 s Iran has also seen a large number of its less educated population leave – some illegally and some applying for asylum, particularly in Europe. • The most popular destination countries for Iranians in 2010 were the USA, Qatar, Canada, Kuwait, Germany, Israel, the UK, Sweden, the UAE and Bahrain. The World Bank estimates that in this year the Iranian diaspora totalled 1. 3 million. • Remittances are therefore an important source of income in Iran. In 2010 they totalled US$1. 1 billion, equivalent to US$15 per capita. However, a large amount of money sent home is via a hawala system, an informal network of money dealers that provides a faster and cheaper means of transfer, indicating that remittances are probably much larger than these official figures suggest. 9
Iran in 2030 Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Population by citizenship • In 2010, foreign citizens accounted for 2. 4% of the population and in 2030 this proportion is expected to increase • • slightly to 2. 6% or 2. 3 million foreign citizens. A large proportion of immigrants are refugees – 45. 4% in 2010 according to the World Bank – mainly coming from neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq. In fact Iran has one of the largest refugee populations in the world. The majority of immigrants in Iran are male – 61. 2% in 2010. Three quarters of foreign citizens come from Afghanistan and this proportion is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2030. Iran is home to a diverse range of ethnic groups, including the Fars, Azaris, Kurds, Arabs, Armenians, Assyrians, Lors, Turkmens and Baluchis. The official language is Persian or Farsi. In 2010, 35. 7% of the population spoke Persian and this proportion is likely to remain broadly the same in 2030. 10
Iran in 2030 Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Cities Iran’s 10 Biggest Cities: 2010/2020/2030 • Urbanisation has been proceeding at a fast rate, • • in fact Iran has one of the fastest rates of urbanisation in the world. In 1980 less than half of Iranians lived in urban areas. Today Iran is a predominantly urban country, with 69. 5% of the population residing in urban areas in 2010. By 2030 this proportion will have increased further to 77. 9%. Urbanisation was driven by the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980 s as large numbers of internally displaced persons headed to the towns and cities; and subsequently by a lack of investment in rural areas. In 2010 Iran had eight cities with a population of more than 1 million. In 2030 this number should increase to nine. Tehran is by far the country’s largest city with a population of 7. 4 million in 2010 – almost 3 times the size of the next largest city, Mashhad. By 2030 the population of Tehran should increase to 8. 0 million and the city will be home to about one -in-ten of the country’s urban residents. All of Iran’s major cities are expected to increase in size between 2010 and 2030, but the city of Karaj is expected to see the strongest growth of 39. 4% during this period. Karaj, in the north of the country, benefits from its proximity to Tehran. 11
Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Data Population by 5 -Year Age Group Male Population by 5 -Year Age Group Female Population by 5 -Year Age Group Vital Statistics Population by Citizenship Population by City 12
Data Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Population by 5 -year age group ‘ 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 -4 6, 094 6, 084 6, 680 6, 723 6, 429 5, 705 5, 419 5 -9 7, 038 5, 431 5, 856 6, 626 6, 739 6, 409 5, 704 10 -14 8, 335 7, 245 5, 379 5, 816 6, 601 6, 733 6, 409 15 -19 9, 045 9, 171 7, 236 5, 296 5, 801 6, 587 6, 708 20 -24 7, 439 9, 123 9, 142 7, 143 5, 264 5, 773 6, 555 25 -29 5, 546 6, 822 9, 020 9, 065 7, 096 5, 230 5, 775 30 -34 4, 745 5, 265 6, 724 8, 958 9, 012 7, 057 5, 137 35 -39 4, 128 4, 694 5, 201 6, 666 8, 902 8, 965 7, 045 40 -44 3, 547 4, 073 4, 633 5, 140 6, 612 8, 842 8, 894 45 -49 2, 844 3, 419 3, 997 4, 555 5, 076 6, 542 8, 800 50 -54 2, 104 2, 662 3, 320 3, 893 4, 460 4, 981 6, 389 55 -59 1, 561 1, 870 2, 538 3, 187 3, 759 4, 320 4, 838 60 -64 1, 353 1, 365 1, 736 2, 380 3, 011 3, 567 4, 128 65 -69 1, 222 1, 211 1, 218 1, 564 2, 169 2, 762 3, 281 70 -74 950 1, 057 1, 008 1, 019 1, 334 1, 869 2, 407 75 -79 592 729 775 743 772 1, 032 1, 468 80+ 360 542 616 679 705 759 980 TOTAL 66, 903 70, 765 75, 078 79, 454 83, 740 87, 134 89, 936 Median Age 21. 8 24. 0 26. 7 29. 5 32. 3 35. 0 37. 5 13
Data Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Male population by 5 -year age group ‘ 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 -4 3, 121 3, 114 3, 424 3, 444 3, 293 2, 924 2, 778 5 -9 3, 603 2, 788 2, 998 3, 396 3, 453 3, 283 2, 923 10 -14 4, 252 3, 720 2, 761 2, 979 3, 383 3, 449 3, 283 15 -19 4, 582 4, 666 3, 715 2, 721 2, 969 3, 374 3, 434 20 -24 3, 749 4, 536 4, 639 3, 668 2, 701 2, 952 3, 355 25 -29 2, 800 3, 467 4, 473 4, 596 3, 639 2, 680 2, 949 30 -34 2, 398 2, 737 3, 418 4, 434 4, 564 3, 616 2, 630 35 -39 2, 093 2, 387 2, 703 3, 384 4, 402 4, 536 3, 605 40 -44 1, 813 2, 092 2, 354 2, 667 3, 353 4, 369 4, 504 45 -49 1, 437 1, 734 2, 049 2, 309 2, 629 3, 312 4, 334 50 -54 1, 045 1, 344 1, 675 1, 988 2, 251 2, 570 3, 227 55 -59 790 929 1, 269 1, 593 1, 901 2, 161 2, 478 60 -64 700 687 849 1, 170 1, 481 1, 776 2, 028 65 -69 647 621 600 748 1, 043 1, 328 1, 604 70 -74 511 557 504 488 619 872 1, 119 75 -79 319 396 398 360 357 460 656 80+ 188 282 324 343 334 332 400 TOTAL 34, 048 36, 058 38, 154 40, 289 42, 371 43, 993 45, 309 Median Age 21. 8 24. 0 26. 6 29. 3 32. 0 34. 7 37. 0 14
Data Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Female population by 5 -year age group ‘ 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 -4 2, 973 2, 970 3, 255 3, 279 3, 136 2, 781 2, 641 5 -9 3, 435 2, 643 2, 859 3, 230 3, 287 3, 126 2, 780 10 -14 4, 083 3, 525 2, 618 2, 837 3, 218 3, 284 3, 126 15 -19 4, 463 4, 505 3, 522 2, 575 2, 832 3, 213 3, 274 20 -24 3, 690 4, 587 4, 503 3, 474 2, 563 2, 822 3, 200 25 -29 2, 746 3, 355 4, 547 4, 470 3, 456 2, 550 2, 826 30 -34 2, 347 2, 528 3, 306 4, 523 4, 449 3, 441 2, 507 35 -39 2, 035 2, 307 2, 497 3, 282 4, 500 4, 429 3, 440 40 -44 1, 735 1, 981 2, 278 2, 473 3, 259 4, 473 4, 389 45 -49 1, 406 1, 685 1, 948 2, 245 2, 447 3, 230 4, 465 50 -54 1, 059 1, 319 1, 645 1, 905 2, 208 2, 412 3, 161 55 -59 771 941 1, 269 1, 594 1, 858 2, 159 2, 360 60 -64 653 678 887 1, 209 1, 530 1, 791 2, 100 65 -69 575 590 618 816 1, 126 1, 434 1, 677 70 -74 439 500 503 531 715 997 1, 287 75 -79 273 333 377 383 415 572 812 80+ 172 259 292 336 371 427 580 TOTAL 32, 854 34, 707 36, 924 39, 165 41, 369 43, 141 44, 627 Median Age 21. 8 24. 0 26. 8 29. 7 32. 6 35. 4 38. 0 15
Data Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Vital statistics 2000 Birth rates Live births (‘ 000) Fertility rates Age at childbirth Net migration (‘ 000) Death rates Deaths (‘ 000) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 19. 7 19. 4 18. 5 17. 2 14. 8 12. 9 12. 3 1, 321. 6 1, 378. 5 1, 392. 4 1, 363. 8 1, 238. 0 1, 119. 7 1, 104. 6 2. 2 1. 9 1. 8 1. 9 27. 5 27. 1 27. 0 26. 9 26. 8 26. 7 - 95. 6 - 165. 6 - 91. 4 - 52. 2 - 13. 4 - 22. 6 - 20. 5 5. 8 5. 6 5. 4 5. 6 6. 2 388. 7 411. 4 422. 0 428. 8 447. 5 489. 0 558. 1 Note: Birth and death rates refer to the number per '000 population and fertility rates to the number of children born per female. Age at childbirth refers to average of women in years. 16
Data Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Population by citizenship ‘ 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Iran 65, 592 69, 203 73, 246 77, 431 81, 575 84, 868 87, 591 Afghanistan 961 1, 179 1, 381 1, 512 1, 614 1, 687 1, 745 Iraq 160 67 27 27 29 30 31 11 15 19 21 22 23 24 Azerbaijan 3 7 11 12 14 14 15 Turkmenistan 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 Armenia 1 2 2 3 3 Turkey 1 1 1 173 288 387 441 478 502 520 Pakistan Other countries 17
Data Population and Homes © Euromonitor International Population by city ‘ 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Tehran 7, 024 7, 191 7, 360 7, 535 7, 735 7, 890 8, 027 Mashhad 2, 115 2, 409 2, 705 2, 959 3, 185 3, 361 3, 503 Esfahan 1, 411 1, 593 1, 776 1, 934 2, 075 2, 185 2, 274 Karaj 1, 116 1, 359 1, 602 1, 807 1, 985 2, 124 2, 234 Tabriz 1, 287 1, 400 1, 515 1, 616 1, 709 1, 782 1, 841 Shiraz 1, 135 1, 230 1, 327 1, 413 1, 492 1, 554 1, 605 Ahvaz 884 983 1, 082 1, 169 1, 247 1, 308 1, 357 Qom 860 961 1, 063 1, 151 1, 230 1, 292 1, 342 Kermanshah 742 798 855 905 953 990 1, 020 Orumiyeh 498 577 656 724 783 829 866 42, 952 47, 366 52, 177 57, 100 62, 003 66, 252 70, 023 Total urban population 18
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