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Investment in the Mediterranean : Balance and perspectives Christophe Saint-Martin/ Invest in France Agency Investment in the Mediterranean : Balance and perspectives Christophe Saint-Martin/ Invest in France Agency Euromediterranean Conference / Naples / 8 -9 June 2006 ANIMA Réseau Euroméditerranéen d’Agences de Promotion des Investissements Euromediterranean Network of Investment Promotion Agencies

ANIMA Overview Main MEDA assets Market and growth (320 million inhabitants in 2025) Proximity ANIMA Overview Main MEDA assets Market and growth (320 million inhabitants in 2025) Proximity of EU +Association Agreements +2010 Free Trade Zone Moderate cost of labour (1/5 th of EU average) Local resources & niches (from oil to brains…) The 20 -35 year generation is a gold mine! A growing interest, but investors still hesitant Fragmented Mediterranean market Mixed image -economy / geopolitics / culture Gaps (but improvements) in law enforcement, business attitude, or technical obstacles (logistics, training…) MEDA often absent of the investor short list Many opportunities do exist now Many ways of investing: JVs, privatisations, stakeholding, overseas branches Local market, exports, off-shoring, services, infrastructure, R&D June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 2

ANIMA Internet users(ITU 2002) June 2006 Comparative advantages Industrial annual wages (ILO 1999 -2003) ANIMA Internet users(ITU 2002) June 2006 Comparative advantages Industrial annual wages (ILO 1999 -2003) © ANIMA-AFII 2006 3

ANIMA A wind of change in the Mediterranean in 2005 According to our observatory ANIMA A wind of change in the Mediterranean in 2005 According to our observatory (MIPO), 686 foreign investment projects announced or started in 2005 Growth trend: 232 projects in 2003 / 343 in 2004 / 686 in 2005 A total capital investment figure of over € 40 bn in 2005 ! The quality of new investments is promising Some strategic/ high profile/ high tech projects (R&D etc. ) Projects coming from 50 different countries : mainly France (152 projects), United States (106) and Emirates (41 projects) Presence of major companies (Intel, BP, Danone, Shell, Coca. Cola…) June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 4

ANIMA Source: MIPO June 2006 More than 1, 000 world companies have recently invested ANIMA Source: MIPO June 2006 More than 1, 000 world companies have recently invested in MEDA © ANIMA-AFII 2006 5

ANIMA MIPO results Encouraging trend Diversification of investors (Gulf, OECD, emerging countries…) The main ANIMA MIPO results Encouraging trend Diversification of investors (Gulf, OECD, emerging countries…) The main investors (FDI amounts) in MEDA are : Saudi Arabia (€ 6. 8 bn), United States (€ 6. 3 bn) and the United Kingdom (€ 6. 1 bn) MEDA is becoming increasingly attractive A wind of change The gap between MEDA and Central & Eastern Europe seems to be closing MEDA recovery is an on-going process June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 6

ANIMA June 2006 FDI attraction, MEDA region © ANIMA-AFII 2006 7 ANIMA June 2006 FDI attraction, MEDA region © ANIMA-AFII 2006 7

ANIMA A strong take-off in 2005 16 895 FDI amount, €m, MIPO 2003 2004 ANIMA A strong take-off in 2005 16 895 FDI amount, €m, MIPO 2003 2004 2005 Palestine Auth. Turkey 998 95 217 6 753 4 261 3 225 2 430 Morocco 118 projects (2005) Agri-food, industrial sectors & ICT Tunisia 78 projects 3 493 (2005) 1 806 Energy, telecom, textile Algeria services 93 projects (2005) Energy, banks & services June 2006 2 712 Malta 73 projects (2005) Telecoms, automobile, banks, agrifood 582 5 projects Cyprus (2005) 7 projects (‘ 05) Drugs, logistics, Telecoms, services, agri-food banks Egypt 5 projects (2005) Banks, ICT 2 982 434 408 100 0 1 731 414 724 40 projects (‘ 05) Energy, tourism, banks, agri-food Lebanon 5 922 8 922 1 153 26 projects (‘ 05) Tourism, ICT real estate 2 027 1 244 111 101 131 projects Israel (2005) 94 projects Energy, 2 504 (2005) chemicals, 477 Software, banks, electronics, tourism banks © ANIMA-AFII 2006 Syria Jordan 46 projects (2005) Tourism, real estate, banks, software 8

ANIMA Why such an increase ? A number of sizeable investments in the energy ANIMA Why such an increase ? A number of sizeable investments in the energy sector (Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria etc. ) Big real estate and/or tourism projects Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria… Originating in particular from the Gulf States Several major privatisation operations, e. g. in Turkey 3 deals for Turk Telekom, Telsim & Turkcell = US$ 14 bn The Arab investors (Gulf etc. ) are shifting part of their investments from the Americas to MEDA Complete transformation of the banking sector Opening of a number of agencies and takeover of banking networks by large European banks And IPAs’ and ANIMA's efforts… June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 9

ANIMA Donor & recipient countries in 2005 Further diversification in the origin of investors ANIMA Donor & recipient countries in 2005 Further diversification in the origin of investors Europe still the major share of FDI input into MEDA (50% in projects, 40% in capex) -North America stable at 18% Gulf States and other MENA countries on the rise (15% against 11% in 2004 and a mere 6. 5% in 2003) Asia (6%) and intra-MEDA (5%) also growing Recipient countries in 2005 Turkey takes the lead due to large deals in the telecom field Egypt – large projects in energy, banking and real estate Israel – remarkable number of technological investments Syria, Algeria, Morocco (€ 2 to 3 bn each, but different profiles) Small countries (Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon) perform relatively well June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 10

ANIMA Main cumulated flows, 2003 to 2005 Europe 37. 2 bn 8. 1 bn ANIMA Main cumulated flows, 2003 to 2005 Europe 37. 2 bn 8. 1 bn n. 5 b bn bn 2. 7 bn Egypt © ANIMA-AFII 2006 n 1. 6 Israel Jordan 1 b 5 5. n b Palest. Auth. 4. 0. 5 0. 7. 1 bn Syria Algeria 1. 7 Lebanon bn bn 7 n. 8 b DA ß 1 -ME tra June 2006 In Americas 14. 7 bn bn Tunisia n n n Cyprus Malta 1. 0 2. 6 b 4 b 0 5. 1 b 2. 1 bn Morocco n. 9 b 8. 9 bn Turkey 2. 5 bn 1. 2 bn n b. 4 1 . 9 bn 3 11. Asia & emerg. 11. 6 bn 3 Source: MIPO O-D flows over € 0. 5 bn Announced FDI into MEDA Gulf & MENA 6. 7 b 23. 8 bn n 11

ANIMA Why is Europe concerned? The Euro-Med challenge: an increasing divide! The southern rim ANIMA Why is Europe concerned? The Euro-Med challenge: an increasing divide! The southern rim (‘MEDA’, 10 countries, 240 m pop. ) needs to create 4 million jobs per year just to maintain its current unemployment rate GDP per capita 2002, World Bank New members-10: EU-15: US$5, 373 US$ 22, 689 MEDA-10: 2, 360 US$ June 2006 The biggest economic divide in the world! No jobs equals major risks This challenge may be transformed into an opportunity: A boost for local and regional development (40 million jobs mean 40 million consumers) A new burst of growth for EU companies and societies looking for markets and growth An obligation to develop reforms towards an investor-friendly environment © ANIMA-AFII 2006 12

ANIMA EU companies looking at MEDA as a growth destination Quotes from les Echos, ANIMA EU companies looking at MEDA as a growth destination Quotes from les Echos, 24/5/2006: "Though tempting, the Chinese market remains complicated and expensive" "I very highly disadvise China to SMEs without a real know-how and robust shoulders" "Settling here has a price. You have to integrate the language, distance, culture, the relative value of contracts, regulations… " "Start-ups have difficulties with Chinese wages in new technologies" June 2006 Eastern Europe and China are becoming less attractive (costs, capacity saturation etc. ) Big companies are better aware of the MEDA opportunities MEDA is closing its gap vs. Eastern Europe (46% of projects in 2005, vs. 28% in 2002) © ANIMA-AFII 2006 13

ANIMA Example of Med. Valley Potential innovation hubs at the very gates of Europe ANIMA Example of Med. Valley Potential innovation hubs at the very gates of Europe Thousands of engineers & researchers ! 100 clusters, technoparks, R&D centres detected by ANIMA in the South June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 14

ANIMA A growing number of very large scale investments Top capital investments announced in ANIMA A growing number of very large scale investments Top capital investments announced in 2005 1. Oger (Saudi Arabia), telecomm. network, Turkey, $6. 55 bn 2. Vodafone (UK), telecomm. network, Turkey, $4. 55 bn 3. Shell (Netherlands), energy, Turkey, $4. 14 bn 4. Intel (United States), electronic components, Israel, $4 bn 5. Emaar Properties (UAE), real est. / public works, Egypt, $4 bn 6. Aref Investment (Kuwait), real est. / public works, Syria, $4 bn 7. Emaar Properties (UAE), real est. / public works, Syria, $3. 9 bn 8. Telia Sonera (Sweden), telecomm. network, Turkey, $3. 1 bn 9. Credit Line (Russia), energy, Syria, $2. 7 bn 10. Apachi (United States), energy, Egypt, $2 bn June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 15

ANIMA Boost Investments into the Mediterranean Work in progress… Legal integration of the Mediterranean ANIMA Boost Investments into the Mediterranean Work in progress… Legal integration of the Mediterranean markets (Standards, Customs) Via Euromed Market and Euromed Quality Physical integration Via Euromed Transport Creation of a legal framework (e. g. IP rights) Via ANIMA Investment Charter And other efforts - Doing Business (World Bank), OECD Networking and information sharing on potential markets and investors SMILE and MIPO bases, UNIDO opportunities exchange, business forums, ANIMA web site Improvement of the Mediterranean image for investors June 2006 E. g. annual ANIMA business summit with The Economist –or this event… © ANIMA-AFII 2006 16

ANIMA Methodology : how to measure FDI performance? Macro-economic approach: financial records (past) Method: ANIMA Methodology : how to measure FDI performance? Macro-economic approach: financial records (past) Method: national financial accounts (Central Bank) Why? worldwide coverage; long series; ‘objective’ data Limits: mixes portfolio and physical investment; not fitted for regional/local agencies; only financial; only registered with official disbursement Micro-economic approach: announcements (past + anticipation) Method: detection of individual projects via IPA registration or economic intelligence (media, newsletters, internet) Why? knowledge of projects; may include jobs Limits: estimation by default (depending on the net size); based on declarations; mixes various types of info/ projects June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 17

ANIMA Factiva economic newsflow (>15, 000 news per day) Reuters -Dow Jones etc. MIPO ANIMA Factiva economic newsflow (>15, 000 news per day) Reuters -Dow Jones etc. MIPO process Semantic analysis Open databases Selection of ± 1, 000 news and alerts per year for MEDA Internet MIPO e. g. Kompass, Google, etc. Direct information ANIMA team Records IPAs & other partners Webwatcher / Monitoring of companies Mediterranean Investment Project Observatory Others sources Vigie (franchise, rep. office) Invest in France FDI data base on 30 European countries Benchmarking Newsletters, events, listings June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 • FDI projects • Prospects • Small projects e. g. with East. Europe 18

ANIMA About MIPO: data collected on each project Date of the news Origin country ANIMA About MIPO: data collected on each project Date of the news Origin country Host country Company or investor Sector (23 sectors) Summary of the project (in Engl. & French) Type of project (greenfield, brownfield, JV etc. ) Type of company (Transnational, major co. , SME) FDI amount in €m (known for 46% of projects) Jobs created (known for 16% of projects) Detailed news One or several articles, source, web site, informations on the company etc. June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 19

ANIMA June 2006 Examples of MIPO outputs © ANIMA-AFII 2006 20 ANIMA June 2006 Examples of MIPO outputs © ANIMA-AFII 2006 20

ANIMA Thank you / Contact us Coordination (French desk) : Bénédict de Saint-Laurent, (AFII), ANIMA Thank you / Contact us Coordination (French desk) : Bénédict de Saint-Laurent, (AFII), France T : + 33 4 96 11 67 62 Mailto : [email protected] fr Italian desk: Raffaela Di Emidio, (ICE), Italie T : + 39 06 59 92 68 89 Mailto : r. [email protected] it Moroccan desk: Laïla Sbiti, Direction des Investissements, Ministère des Affaires Générales, des Affaires Economiques et de la Mise à Niveau de l’Economie, Maroc T : + 212 37 67 35 06 Mailto : [email protected] gov. ma Europe. Aid Co-operation Office : Fabian Verhoeven Mailto : fabian. [email protected] eu. int June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 21

ANIMA References The MEDA region covers: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestinian Authority, ANIMA References The MEDA region covers: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey ANIMA - Euromed Network of Investment Promotion Agencies Is a European-funded project devoted to helping MEDA acquire the tools and the strategies to attract foreign direct investment The Invest in France Agency (AFII), assisted by ICE (Italy) and the Direction des Investissements (Morocco), runs the project The MEDA Investment Agencies, the City of Marseille, the Euroméditerranée Agency and the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region also contribute The Mediterranean Investment Project Observatory (MIPO) is a tool developed by ANIMA to monitor investment into the MEDA region and is available on line via the ANIMA website www. animaweb. org June 2006 © ANIMA-AFII 2006 22