Inversion Towards Occupation A New Challenge to

Inversion Towards Occupation • A New Challenge to Israel’s National Security Concept January 2007

A New Challenge to National Security Crisis in Israel’s National Security Concept Israel is in Strategic Inferiority Palestinians may not fight for end of occupation Israel’s policy towards Hamas has failed 2

Crisis in Israel’s National Security Concept Objective Two-State Anchor Israeli Strength Problem Security & Foreign Affairs USA Alliance with the Superpower Palestinians State & End of Occupation IDF Win, Deter Logic Military Enemy 3 States and Organizations One-State Iranian Hegemony Structure of the Political System US Decline; Erosion of Pro-Israel Lobby Inversion Towards Occupation How to Win in Lebanon and Gaza? Political – Strategy of Implosion The Resistance Network

Adaptive Challenge for National Security Technical Problem Semi-technical Problem Adaptive Challenge Problem Known Un-Known Solution Known Un-Known Ron Heifetz 4 “Leadership without Easy Answers"

Strategy of Implosion Purpose: Destruction of Israel Meshal: “If Hamas cannot Ahmadinejad: “The Palestinian protect the Palestinian people, Nasrallah: “We do not need Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a refugees will be able to[Hamas] let the PA go to hell… return. tanks and planes… [Israel] is crash course… just like the The future of Palestine will be will not find it difficult to weaker than disappeared. ” Soviet Uniona spider web. ” determined by referendum the announce the dissolution of. ” (7/31/06) (12/2/06) (11/29/06) PA and a return to ground zero: an occupied nation. ” (3/19/06) Continuation of Occupation War Against Occupation De-Legitimize Promote 1 SS Oppose 2 SS Military Means Israeli Implosion Single Arab State in its place 5

Inversion Towards Occupation 2005 Palestinians oppose PSPB Palestinians seek state (even PSPB) 2007 1967 Inversion towards occupation? Palestinians oppose occupation ? 1937 Inversion towards 2 SS 6 1988 Int'l community supports 2 SS

Significance of Inversion § Strategic Inferiority Political Logic: Ending Value Control < § Clash of Logics § Price and Value § Harder to End Control 7 Military Logic: Increasing Control Price Time

Hamas Accelerates Inversion § Political Dead-End Negotiation § Crisis of Palestinian Representation § Dismantling the PA 8 Meshal: “Hamas will close the political chapter… 2 SS and the PA will collapse. ” (11/25/06) Unilateral

Policy Guidelines § Re-establishing an Address § Consolidating Separation § Upgrading Political Status 9

Policies vis-à-vis Hamas 3 Demands + embargo No PA collapse Corridor of difficult decisions War against Hamas De-Jure De-Facto Already exists Bypassing Hamas Upgrading the PA Deal with Fatah Risks Battle Hamas Confrontation Recog. IL Exposure Pal. State Obstruction 10 Hamas doesn’t fall / change PA collapses Hostile PA Weaken Abu Mazen PA collapses / terror Hamas wins Fatah under-delivers

Policies vis-à-vis Hamas Obstruction Allow it to Govern Exposure Unity Gov’t Confrontation Civil War 11 Fatah wins at least in the WB Address

Responses are Bubbling Objective Two-State Solution One State Anchor Israeli Strength Iranian Hegemony Economic Sanctions & Military Tools Problem Security & Foreign Affairs Political System Political Reform USA Closeness with the Power US Decline Regional Alliances Palestinians State & End of Occupation Inversion Towards Occupation IDF Victory, Deter How to Win in Lebanon and Gaza? Logic Military Political – Strategy of Implosion Enemy 12 States and Organizations Resistance Network Exposure or Confrontation Winograd Commission Meridor Report “How to Break the Amoeba’s Bones? ”

Conclusions Israel faces a new strategy: Occupation leads to Israel’s implosion Palestinians don’t want or can’t end the occupation Policy against Hamas is failing Allow a unity government to govern Confront Hamas in a Palestinian Civil War Commissions of Inquiry are not enough Problem lies in the National Security Concept Relevant commission yet to be formed 13