Inversion Towards Occupation A New Challenge to

Inversion Towards Occupation • A New Challenge to Israel’s National Security Concept January 2007

A New Challenge to National Security Crisis in Israel’s National Security Concept Israel is in Strategic Inferiority Palestinians may not fight for end of occupation Israel’s policy towards Hamas has failed 2

Crisis in Israel’s National Security Concept Objective Two-State Solution Anchor Israeli Strength Problem Security & Foreign Affairs USA Alliance with the Superpower Palestinians State & End of Occupation IDF Victory, Deter Logic Military Enemy 3 States and Organizations One-State Iranian Hegemony Structure of the Political System US Decline; Erosion of Israel’s Status in US Inversion Towards Occupation How to Win in Lebanon and Gaza? Political – Strategy of Implosion The Resistance Network

The Strategy of Implosion Purpose: Destruction of Israel Meshal: “If Hamas cannot Ahmadinejad: “The Palestinian protect the Palestinian people, Nasrallah: “We do not need Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a refugees will be able to[Hamas] let the PA go to hell… return. tanks and planes… [Israel] is crash course… just like the The future of Palestine will be will not find it difficult to Soviet Uniona spider web. ” weaker than disappeared. ” determined by referendum the announce the dissolution of. ” (7/31/06) (12/2/06) (11/29/06) PA and a return to ground zero: an occupied nation. ” (3/19/06) Continuation of the Occupation War Against Occupation De-Legitimize Promote 1 SS Oppose 2 SS Military Means Israeli Implosion Single Arab State in its place 4

Inversion Towards Occupation 2005 Palestinians oppose PSPB Palestinians seek state (even PSPB) 2007 1967 Inversion towards occupation? Palestinians oppose occupation ? 1937 Inversion towards 2 SS 5 1988 Int'l community supports 2 SS

Significance of the Inversion § Strategic Inferiority § Clash of Logics Political Logic: Ending Value Control < § Price and Value § Ending Control Grows Distant 6 Military Logic: Increasing Control Price Time

Hamas Accelerates the Inversion § Political Dead-End Meshal: Negotiation § Crisis of Palestinian Representation § Dismantling the PA 7 “If the international community won’t face the challenge, 2 SS Hamas will close the political chapter… and the Unilateral will collapse. ” PA (11/25/06)

Policy Options § Turning the PA into an Address § Consolidating Separation § Promoting Palestinian Statehood 8

Policies vis-à-vis Hamas Risks Palestinian Recogn- Battle with State ition of IL Hamas Obstruction 9 Exposure Confrontation 3 Demands + embargo No PA collapse Corridor of difficult decisions War against Hamas De-Jure De-Facto Already exists Bypassing Hamas Upgrading the PA Deal with Fatah Hamas doesn’t fall / change PA collapses Hostile PA Damage Abu Mazen PA collapses / terror Hamas wins Fatah disappoints

Policies vis-à-vis Hamas Obstruction Allow it to Govern Exposure Unity Gov’t Confrontation Civil War 10 Fatah wins at least in the WB Address

Answers are Bubbling Objective Two-State Solution One State Anchor Israeli Strength Iranian Hegemony Economic Sanctions & Military Tools Problem Security & Foreign Affairs Political System Political Reform USA Closeness with the Power US Decline Regional Alliances Palestinians State & End of Occupation Inversion Towards Occupation IDF Victory, Deter How to Win in Lebanon and Gaza? Logic Military Political – Strategy of Implosion Enemy 11 States and Organizations Resistance Network Exposure or Confrontation Winograd Commission Meridor Report “How to Break the Amoeba’s Bones? ”

Adaptive Challenge for National Security Technical Problem Semi-technical Problem Adaptive Challenge Problem Known Un-Known Solution Known Un-Known Ron Heifetz 12 “Leadership without Easy Answers"

Conclusions of the Reut Institute Israel is dealing with a new strategy: Continuation of occupation leads to Israel’s implosion Thus, the Palestinians do not want or cannot end the occupation The policy against Hamas has failed Allow a unity government to govern Confront Hamas in a Palestinian Civil War The Commissions of Inquiry are not enough The problem lies in the National Security Concept The relevant commission has yet to be formed 13