Introduction to Foresight Concepts methodology applications in

Introduction to Foresight Concepts, methodology & applications in the ICTs HSE - Faculty of Business Informatics Winter school 29. 01. 2013 Dr. Ozcan Saritas osaritas@hse. ru

Some ‘drivers of change’ § Printing, gunpowder and the compass have changed the whole face and state of things throughout the world. . . (Francis Bacon, 1620). § Improvements in machinery go hand in hand with the division of labor, and very pretty machines. . . facilitate and quicken production. . . (Adam Smith, 1776). § The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing the means of production! (Karl Marx, 1848). § Knowledge is the chief engine of progress in the economy (Alfred Marshall, 1897). § The entrepreneur and his search for new combinations is the driving force in all economic development. . . (Joseph Schumpeter, 1911). § Science and basic research are incredibly powerful sources of future economic and societal development. . . (Vannevar Bush, 1945). 2

Foresight – ’ 50 s to ‘ 80 s • The existence of human on the earth surface: The act of anticipation as an unavoidable human characteristic • ‘ 50 s: The principles of trend extrapolation and social indicators, and the methods of expert analysis (e. g. Delphi & cross-impact). First computer simulations become well-known • ‘ 60 s: Narrowly focused technology-oriented forecasting activities – the probabilistic assessment of what is likely to happen in the future • ‘ 70 s: Change in the understanding of forecasting due to increasing complexity and uncertainty of societies and economies (e. g. unpredicted oil shocks in the ‘ 70 s) • ‘ 80 s: Multiple futures thinking, participatory activities, where both processes (i. e. networks, tacit outcomes) and products (i. e. codified outputs) were given emphasis

Foresight - ’ 90 s • Foresight for S&T policy making by government, industry and other organisations • The key elements of Foresight in the 1990 s: – S&T is central focus – Systematic process – Longer timeframe than in existing S&T planning – S&T in relation to economic and social developments • “Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, and society with the aim of identifying areas of strategic research and the emerging new technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” (Martin, 1995).

Foresight – 2000 s • Change in the S&T dominated appearance with increasing concerns on social aspects due to: – The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational) – The development of service economies. Considerable portions of economic activity, employment and output have started taking place in service sectors of the economy – Other developments including globalisation, changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs – Recognition of the close relationship between S&T and society

Foresight • “the application of – ‘systematic’, – ‘participatory’, – ‘future-intelligencegathering and medium-tolong-term vision building process’ to – ‘informing present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions’”

EFMN mapped Foresight exercises per region 7

8 Mapping of Foresight activities

Sponsors & target audiences of Foresight 9

Objectives of Foresight EFMN (2008) 10

Sectors focused 11

Foresight methods used EFMN (2008) 12

Foresight outputs EFMN (2008) 13

Foresight – 2010 s? • New global context and new drivers of change – Increased financial, trade and investment flows – Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies – New international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights – New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services – Global value chains and production networks

Technological advancements

Key questions to be answered § What kind of developments will occur? § Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones harmful? § How soon may these developments occur? § What might be the first signs that these developments are happening? § Where and how might the leading indications of impeding change be seen? § Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications? § What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by these indications? § Who needs to know about these impending changes?

Key requirements for Foresight • Understanding – Real-life systems and natural settings with a multi-contextual focus – Increasing interrelationships and interdependencies and thus more complex and uncertain situations • Anticipation – Understanding, appreciating and modelling present & anticipated long-term developments – Intelligence gathering to explore novel ideas and avoid shocks • Inclusivity – Interactive and participative ways of debate and analysis – Continuous interaction of stakeholders on equal terms – Establishment of new social networks • Policy and action orientation – Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment – Implications for present-day decisions and actions • Methodological support – Using quantitative and qualitative methods and building methodologies by combining them to fit for purpose – Integration of best practices, methods and tools

Phases of Foresight § Intelligence – § Imagination – Intelligence § Interaction § Integration Intervention Interpretation § Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future Interpretation – Translates future visions into long-, medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme Intervention – § The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world Integration – Imagination Impact Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations Impact – Assesses the results and impacts of Foresight exercise, learns from experience and provides input for next round

What is possible? What is feasible? Technology & Economics Science & Ecology Systemic Foresight What is desirable? Socioeconomics Politics & Values

Understanding systems: STEEPV S T V E P E Foresight

Understanding the time spans of change 1 -year Present 10 -year Present 20 -year Present 50 -year Present 100 -year Present 200 -year Present The time it takes planet earth to circle the sun once Cycle of seasons Unit of time measurement for human lives Farming and crop rotation Sizeable chunk of a human lifetime Long enough to provide insight into dynamic processes Ideal for noting environmental and ecological factors A reasonable horizon for testing new products and services The time it takes to plan and build major infrastructure items Cycle of generations for human beings: (Veterans, 1922 -1943); (Baby Boomers, 1943 -1960); (Generation Xs (1960 -1980); The Nexters (1980 -2000)) Long enough to observe the economics and social impact of strategic R&D activities, e. g. the identification of CFCs scientifically and the sign of the international contract to take precautionary measures (1974 -1990) Incorporates some major concerns of a technologically advanced culture Culturally significant period to understand trends and change processes Enough to judge the impacts and implications of existing and new technologies Boundary of a single lifetime Long cycles can be distinguished The rise and fall of regions, industries and ecosystems Theories and history and futures begin to flourish Ideal timeframe for cultures in transition A time with which generations are linked Enough to develop intergenerational biography and dialogue The rise and fall of cultures, empires and entire ecosystems Macro view of history; the panorama of the centuries

Foresight Methods & Tools 22

Foresight in ICTs • ICTs are critical in terms of improving the competitiveness of economies and industry and meeting the demands of society. Among the critical impacts of ICTs are: • Innovation and increased productivity by facilitating creativity and management • Modernisation of services such as health, finance, education and transport • Advances in S&T by enabling access to information, generation new information and knowledge and processing complex data sets • Real time communication and networking within and between societies and businesses

EU ICT agenda The European Commission’s ICT Work Programme 2011 -2012 under FP 7 is divided into eight ‘Challenges’ of strategic interest to European society, plus research into ‘Future and emerging technologies’ and support for horizontal actions, such as international cooperation and pre-commercial procurement: • Challenge 1 – Pervasive and Trusted Network and Service Infrastructures • Challenge 2 – Cognitive Systems and Robotics • Challenge 3 – Alternative Paths to Components and Systems • Challenge 4 – Technologies for Digital Content and Languages • Challenge 5 – ICT for Health, Ageing Well, Inclusion and Governance • Challenge 6 – ICT for low carbon economy • Challenge 7 – ICT for the Enterprise and Manufacturing • Challenge 8 – ICT for Learning and Access to Cultural Resources • Future and Emerging Technologies (FET) In addition, ICT research under the following themes is also supported by the EU in FP 7: • e-Infrastructures • International Cooperation • Pre-Commercial Procurement http: //cordis. europa. eu/fp 7/ict/programme/home_en. html

Russian ICT policy The “Strategy for development of information society in Russia” determines the following main goals and objectives of the national ICT policy: • Establishment of up-to-date IT infrastructure, provision of high-quality services based on it and ensuring a good level of public access to information and technologies • Improvement of education, health care, social protection on the basis of development and use of ICTs • Improvement of the State guarantees system concerning the Constitutional human rights in the information area • Development of the economy of the Russian Federation on the basis of ICTs • Improvement of the efficiency of the State and local governance, co-operation of the civil society and business with public authorities, quality and timeliness of public services • Development of science, technology and engineering, training of skilled specialists in the area of information and telecommunication technologies • Preservation of cultures of the multinational population of the Russian Federation, enhancement of public ethical and patriotic values, development of a system for cultural and humanity education (preservation of cultural and humanity wealth and provision of people’s access to them) • Opposition to the threat of using information and telecommunication technologies for damaging the Russian national interests

UK case

Master course: “Foresight & Technology Monitoring in the ICTs” Course outline: • • Introduction to Foresight: Concepts and Approaches Foresight methodology and frequently used methods Applications of Foresight in the field of the ICTs Quantitative and Qualitative methods for Technology Monitoring Technologies in the ICTs Technology and Market Dynamics in the ICTs Sector Roadmapping for Technologies and Markets in the ICTs Formulating strategies and actions for the ICTs Course coordinator: Ozcan Saritas

Foresight Journals Editor: Prof. Ozcan Saritas (UNIMAN-HSE) Editor: Prof. Leonid Gokhberg (HSE) www. emeraldinsight. com/fs. htm http: //foresight-journal. hse. ru 28

Imagination Impact Systemic Foresight Integration Intervention Interpretation osaritas@hse. ru 29