Internationalization of U. S. Doctorate Education John Bound University of Michigan and NBER Sarah Turner University of Virginia and NBER Patrick Walsh University of Michigan
Research Question • What explains the rise in the representation of foreign students among Ph. D recipients from U. S. universities? • What determines the level and change in the distribution across countries in the number of U. S. doctorate recipients? • What effect does the rise have on the U. S. and on foreign economies?
![Empirical Starting Points [Overall]](https://present5.com/presentation/cc1f9df499693f666c1d6729476996b8/image-3.jpg "Empirical Starting Points [Overall]")
Empirical Starting Points [Overall]
Physical Sciences
Life Sciences
Engineering
Economics
Trends in funding for university science
Theoretical Motivation (Borrowing from Roy Model)
Predictions from Theory Cross section • Who comes? Those with limited higher education systems • will be relatively likely to pursue graduate study at a U. S. university Where do they go? Those with options relatively close to those in the U. S. will be among those with admission offers from some of the best programs in the U. S. Over time • Demand shocks. Changes in home country BA production • • yield increases in doctorate attainment from U. S. universities. Supply shocks. Funding shocks to the U. S. graduate education market will yield relatively larger changes in Ph. Ds awarded to those from countries where demand is relatively elastic. Networks matter.
Evidence Cross-Sectional BA and Ph. D Degrees
Representation of Doctorate Recipients at Top-5 Programs (Physics)
Representation of Doctorate Recipients at Top-5 Programs (Economics)
1980, Science & Engineering Ph. Ds
1996, Science & Engineering Ph. Ds
Country-Specific Trends (Physical Sciences)
Country-Specific Trends by Program Quality (Physics)
Growth in undergraduate degree attainment
Changes in BA Degrees and Ph. D Degrees Conferred from U. S. Institutions
The China Case
Understanding degree attainment among U. S. students
Share of Growth in US Ph. Ds by Source Country
Physics by program rank and year of graduate school entry
Average Annual Increase Real Earnings
Conclusion • In the cross-section, representation and sorting by program quality varies with home country options; “selection” is greater when options are close to those in the U. S. • “Demand side” changes generated by dramatic growth in undergraduate degree attainment in countries like China and South Korea and political developments in China and Eastern Europe can explain much – but not all -- of the rise in Ph. Ds awarded to foreign students by U. S. institutions. • Labor market and returns to science have not provided strong incentives for U. S. students to enter science and engineering.
Further Thoughts • Simple economic factors can explain increased internationalization of doctoral education and the Science and Engineering workforce. If there are significant agglomeration effects, increased internationalization will increase TFP. • Is the increased presence of foreigners in U. S. Ph. D programs and in the U. S. scientific workforce a good thing for the U. S. ? The simple answer has to be yes. More research at lower prices. • What about sending countries? While there is a discussion of “brain drain” in various foreign countries, there is some circulation of scientists back to their countries of origin. Indeed, some countries have policies that explicitly capitalize on this (e. g. Israel). Also, the presence of the U. S. market provides incentives foreign students and foreign systems of higher education. • Are there losers? Yes. (1) U. S. students who might want to become scientists. (2) Possibly U. S. undergraduates with foreign TAs, in the absence of monitoring of communication skills.
Incentives from the labor market
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