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International Young Scholar Workshop Kyoto University The Social & Economic Development Policy and Its International Young Scholar Workshop Kyoto University The Social & Economic Development Policy and Its Changes to the Livelihoods: A Case of Nam Theun 2 Hydropower Project 3 rd August 2011 Bounpheng Duangmala [email protected] com National University of Laos

Country Overview l Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) is a small, landlocked nation of Country Overview l Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) is a small, landlocked nation of less than six million people at the center of the dynamic Mekong region. The country is facing numerous development challenges but has been undertaking reforms that are helping to embark it on an increasingly sustainable development path. With strong economic performance and structural reforms in trade, private sector development, and public financial management - among others, Lao PDR is fighting poverty, addressing social inequities, and building stronger capacity to manage its rich natural resources.

Introduction (cont); The economic transition in Lao PDR l l l From 1986, the Introduction (cont); The economic transition in Lao PDR l l l From 1986, the New Economic Mechanism (NEM) was introduced with opening up the country, focusing on market oriented economy, competitiveness, less government intervention; promoting all economic agents to participate in the economic development process of the country. A foreign investment code was officially declared in 1988, The Foreign Investment Law 1994, Amended in 2004 and re-amended in 2010. Poverty issues has been seen as a priority task for the government in development agenda.

Government policy & its driven-force l l The World Bank and Asian Development Bank Government policy & its driven-force l l The World Bank and Asian Development Bank had been also active in pushing Lao PDR to the hydropower project To ensure economic growth, hydropower is an income generating factor and important element in development strategy. In Laos, the exploitable hydropower potential is estimated to be around 18, 000 MW in total installed capacity of power plants. To become the ‘battery of South-East Asia’.

Government policy & its driven-force (cont) The development strategy from 2000 -2020. - To Government policy & its driven-force (cont) The development strategy from 2000 -2020. - To sustain economic growth with security and stability and maintain the GDP growth rate of about 8 % annually. - To achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. - To leave Lao PDR from the least developed countries by 2020 - Ensure sustainability of development between the socioeconomic development and natural resource preservation

Hydropower and GDP Growth Source: World Bank Staff estimates and projections Hydropower and GDP Growth Source: World Bank Staff estimates and projections

Hydropower and GDP Growth by sector (2009) Source: www. worldbank. org/lao/trade Hydropower and GDP Growth by sector (2009) Source: www. worldbank. org/lao/trade

Electricity demand in ASEAN countries Electricity demand in ASEAN countries

The NT 2 Hydroelectric Project l l l Project Cost: $1. 45 B (= The NT 2 Hydroelectric Project l l l Project Cost: $1. 45 B (= a half of Laos’ 2005 GDP) Installed Capacity: 1, 070 MW Reservoir size: 450 km 2 (= 2/3 of Singapore) Generating revenues to “reduce poverty” by exporting electricity to Thailand * BOOT project (build-own-operate-transfer ) “A model of sustainable development”

Vietnam Nam Theun River Nam Theun 2 Dam Thailand Mekong River Xe Bang Fai Vietnam Nam Theun River Nam Theun 2 Dam Thailand Mekong River Xe Bang Fai River Laos Source:International Rivers

Source:Mekong Watch Power House Source:Mekong Watch Power House

Foreign Direct Investment Nam Theun 2 Power Company ($1. 45 B) Contract $350 Million Foreign Direct Investment Nam Theun 2 Power Company ($1. 45 B) Contract $350 Million Lao Government (Concession Agreement) EGAT (PPA) Electricité de Lao(PPA) Italian-Thai: 15% (0%) EGCO: 25% (35%) Lao Holding State Enterprise: 25% (25%) Electricité de France: 35% (40%) (International Financers) ・World Bank ・ADB ・European Investment Bank ・COFACE (France) ・Private Investors*

History of the project l l l International arguments for more than 10 years History of the project l l l International arguments for more than 10 years March - April 2005: World Bank and ADB decided to support the NT 2 June 2005: Construction started April 2008: Village resettlement completed /impoundment of the reservoir started March 2010: Full operation started

Major Social and Environmental Impacts of the NT 2 l l l About 6, Major Social and Environmental Impacts of the NT 2 l l l About 6, 200 indigenous peoples on Nakai Plateau have resettled to make way for a reservoir More than 120, 000 people downstream are affected (e. g. , fisheries, flooded riverbank gardens, deteriorated water quality) Wildlife habitats, including endangered species, were negatively affected.

Endangered species in the Nakai Plateau Endangered species in the Nakai Plateau

Livelihoods Assets Human Capital Social Capital Physical Capital The Poor Natural Capital Financial Capital Livelihoods Assets Human Capital Social Capital Physical Capital The Poor Natural Capital Financial Capital Sustainable Livelihoods Framework

Hydropower development in Laos after the NT 2 l l 70 projects in Laos’ Hydropower development in Laos after the NT 2 l l 70 projects in Laos’ Power Development Plan till 2020 Only 10* out of 70 projects implemented before NT 2 The Lao government signed MOUs to implement/research the other projects NT 2 as a turning point for Laos’ power sector development

Questions about the long-term livelihood restoration in Nakai Plateu l l Main livelihood has Questions about the long-term livelihood restoration in Nakai Plateu l l Main livelihood has been changed from subsistence rice cultivation to cash crop cultivation. There are no stable markets for cash crops. Upland rice cultivation on 0. 66 ha of compensation land not enough space for fallow lands = unsustainable Most resettlement villagers depend on reservoir fisheries It is possible that fish catch declines in several years Grazing land for livestock and forests with rich NTFPs (e. g. Bamboo shoots, mushrooms and etc…) were flooded loss of safety net

Conclusion l l The history of hydropower development in Laos is general and the Conclusion l l The history of hydropower development in Laos is general and the development of NT 2 in particular. It looked at the major driving forces behind the development of the dam such as economic growth, the state policy to become the ‘Battery of Asia’ and also respond to the energy demand of the neighboring countries, especially Thailand. More work still needs to be done by the project to develop the asset base of the poor especially the human, financial and physical capital in order to create a sustainable livelihood for the resettled communities affected by the NT 2 project.

Thank you! Thank you!