International Political Science Association 20 th World Congress

International Political Science Association 20 th World Congress Fukuoka, July 9 - 13, 2006 Political Atlas of the World: AN EXPERIMENT WITH 5 INDICES Andrei Melville, Yuri Polunin, Mikhail Ilyin, Mikhail Mironyuk, Elena Meleshkina, Ivan Timofeev Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMOUniversity), Institute for Public Programming, “Expert” magazine Please do not quote without permission of the authors 1

DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS & EVALUATION OF POLITICAL SYSTEMS AND REGIMES • • • • Ted Robert Gurr et al. : POLITY II, POLITY IV (Indicators of Democracy and Autocracy) Tatu Vanhanen: Index of Democratization (Competition & Participation) Freedom House: Political Rights & Civil Liberties Bertelsmann Stiftung & BTI Board Bertelsmann: Transformation Index Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index, Global Corruption Barometer A. T. Kearney & Foreign Policy Magazine: Globalization Index The Fund for Peace & Foreign Policy Magazine: Failed States Index Journalists without Borders: Press Freedom Index Cato Institute: Economic Freedom of the World UNDP: Human Development Report World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Report World Bank research projects etc. 2

POLITICAL ATLAS OF THE WORLD Project of MGIMO-University and “Expert” magazine Director of the project - Andrei Melville Co-Director (mathematics and statistics) - Yuri Polunin Consultants - Mikhail Ilyin, Elena Meleshkina, Tatyana Alexeeva, Victor Sergeev, Oxana Kharitonova Deputy Director - Mikhail Mironyuk Deputy Co-Director (mathematics and statistics) – Ivan Timofeev 50 country experts, assistants, editors, etc. 3

STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT 3 tracks: (1) Encyclopedia of Political Systems of the World (2) Multi-dimensional Indices and Ratings of 192 (+) countries (3) Multi-dimensional classification of 192 (+) countries and analytical reports 4

ASSUMPTIONS • Multi-dimensional comparative analysis and evaluation – vs. – one-dimensional • Complex variables • Statistical databases (UN, UNESCO, World Bank, WTO, International Health Organization, SIPRI, Inter-Parliamentary Union, national statistics, national constitutions and laws, etc. ) • Quantification of qualitative information • Statistical analysis (regression, correlation, factorial, discriminant, etc. types of analysis) 5

5 INDICES • • Index of state consistency Index of international influence Index of national threats Index of institutional foundations of democracy • Quality of life index 6

SOURCES OF DATA • • • UN, UNDP, UNESCO, FAO, WHO, UNAIDS World Bank (World Development Indicators) IMF WTO WIPO SIPRI Inter-Parliamentary Union National Constitutions and Laws Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research Center for Systemic Peace Federation of American Scientists Political Handbook of the World (Congressional Quarterly Press) • Encyclopaedia Britannica • National statistics, etc. 7

SPSS data base (for multi-dimensional indices and ratings) 192 countries (+) 70 variables 13, 400 figures 8

INDEX OF STATE CONSISTENCY • • • Duration of sovereign stateness Foreign aid, % of GNI Indebtedness Foreign military presence/deployment in the country Casualties of internal conflicts Regions involved in internal conflicts Intensity of internal conflicts Applications for patents by residents – vs. applications by non-residents Ethnic composition (share of ethnic majority) Exchange rate regimes 9

INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE • • • Share of world GDP Share of world goods and services exports Contribution to the UN regular budget IMF member’s voting power Membership in the Paris club (official creditors) • Permanent membership in the UN Security Council • Share of world population • Nobel prize winners 10

INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE (cont. ) • Military expenditure (in constant US dollars) • Armed forces personnel • Nuclear weapons • Advanced military systems • Military deployments abroad 11

INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS • • • Threats of external aggression Terrorist threats (from abroad or within) Territorial disputes Separatist and/or antigovernment activities Nonviolent secessionist movements Military governments or attempts of military coups 12

INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS (cont. ) • Undiversified exports (one or two primary export commodities) • Constant trade deficit • Dependence on fuel imports • Probability of natural disasters • Water shortage • Undernourishment and famine • Depopulation • Excessive migration • HIV/AIDS epidemic 13

INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF DEMOCRACY • Parliamentary elections competition • Head of the executive elections competition • Duration of an uninterrupted minimal competition tradition (since 1945) • Electoral inclusiveness (share of registered voters to total population) • Share of women in parliament (lower chamber) 14

INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF DEMOCRACY (cont. ) • Performance of democratic institutions - no military coups or unconstitutional regime changes - not more than two terms held by the head of state/executive (former and acting) - no referendum to extend term for the head of state/executive - competitive elections without interruption - influence of parliament on the appointment of the government 15

QUALITY OF LIFE INDEX • • • Life expectancy at birth Death rate (combined) Infant mortality GDP per capita Combined gross enrolment ratio for primary, secondary and tertiary schools • Public health expenditure per capita 16

5 indices: an experiment with discriminant analysis • Samples of countries for discriminant analysis • Countries’ rankings 17

Index of state consistency Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Sufficient state consistency: Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA • Insufficient state consistency: Afghanistan, Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Democratic Republic Congo, Ethiopia, Georgia, Haiti, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Mauritania, Moldova, Nepal, Rwanda, Serbia and Montenegro (prior to dissolution), Somalia, Sudan, Tajikistan 18

Index of state consistency (0 - 10): examples Country Group Index Rank USA Sufficient state consistency 10 1 Japan Sufficient state consistency 9, 34 2 Germany Sufficient state consistency 8, 93 4 Korea (South) Sufficient state consistency 8, 53 8 China Sufficient state consistency 8, 24 12 Argentina Sufficient state consistency 8, 07 17 Russia Sufficient state consistency 7, 5 27 South Africa Sufficient state consistency 7, 35 30 Saudi Arabia Sufficient state consistency 6, 99 41 Iran Sufficient state consistency 6, 97 43 Hungary Sufficient state consistency 6, 88 45 Indonesia Sufficient state consistency 5, 84 67 India Sufficient state consistency 5, 42 81 Korea (North) Insufficient state consistency 5, 01 98 Ukraine Insufficient state consistency 4, 35 113 Ethiopia Insufficient state consistency 2, 66 154 Central African Republic Insufficient state consistency 0, 81 188 19

Index of international influence Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Relatively high influence Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, UK • Relatively low influence Afghanistan, Bolivia, Botswana, Congo, Estonia, Georgia, Iceland, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Liberia, Malawi, Mongolia, Namibia, Paraguay, Rwanda, Slovenia, Somalia, Uruguay, the Zambia 20

Index of international influence (0 - 10): examples Country Group Index Rank USA Relatively high influence 10, 00 1 China Relatively high influence 3, 93 2 Japan Relatively high influence 3, 25 3 Germany Relatively high influence 3, 24 4 Russia Relatively high influence 2, 60 7 India Relatively high influence 2, 28 8 Saudi Arabia Relatively high influence 1, 69 10 Korea (North) Relatively high influence 1, 25 12 Korea (South) Relatively high influence 1, 02 16 Iran Relatively low influence 0, 83 20 Indonesia Relatively low influence 0, 81 22 Ukraine Relatively low influence 0, 59 29 Argentina Relatively low influence 0, 56 31 South Africa Relatively low influence 0, 49 34 Hungary Relatively low influence 0, 29 53 Ethiopia Relatively low influence 0, 22 62 Central African Republic Relatively low influence 0, 02 160 21

Index of national threats Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Relatively high level of threats Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Burkina-Faso, Cambodia, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Georgia, India, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Liberia, Myanmar, Niger, Philippines, Somalia, Tajikistan, the Zambia. • Relatively low level of threats Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, the United Arab Emirates, Uruguay. 22

Index of national threats (0 - 10): examples Country Group Index Rank Ethiopia Relatively high threats 10, 00 1 Central African Republic Relatively high threats 7, 57 10 India Relatively high threats 5, 99 44 Indonesia Relatively high threats 5, 99 45 Iran Relatively high threats 5, 34 57 Korea (North) Relatively high threats 4, 89 68 China Relatively high threats 4, 48 78 Russia Relatively high threats 4, 34 81 Korea (South) Relatively high threats 4, 28 82 Japan Relatively low threats 4, 03 87 Saudi Arabia Relatively low threats 3, 63 101 USA Relatively low threats 3, 06 118 South Africa Relatively low threats 2, 37 136 Ukraine Relatively low threats 2, 27 141 Argentina Relatively low threats 2, 07 146 Hungary Relatively low threats 1, 02 172 Germany Relatively low threats 0, 77 181 23

Index of institutional foundations of democracy Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Sufficient institutional foundations Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Costa-Rica, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, UK, USA. • Insufficient institutional foundations Angola, Bahrain, Belarus, Cameroon, China, Congo, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Korea (North), Laos, Libya, Myanmar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe. 24

Index of institutional foundations of democracy (0 -10): examples Country Group Index Rank Austria Sufficient institutional foundations 8, 09 9 India Sufficient institutional foundations 7, 35 16 USA Sufficient institutional foundations 7, 3 18 Hungary Sufficient institutional foundations 6, 94 28 Argentina Sufficient institutional foundations 6, 91 29 Korea (South) Sufficient institutional foundations 6, 62 34 Ukraine Sufficient institutional foundations 6, 46 42 Japan Sufficient institutional foundations 6, 46 43 Indonesia Sufficient institutional foundations 5, 44 86 Russia Sufficient institutional foundations 5, 24 93 South Africa Sufficient institutional foundations 5, 23 94 Ethiopia Insufficient institutional foundations 4, 03 124 Central African Republic Insufficient institutional foundations 3, 2 139 Iran Insufficient institutional foundations 1, 76 161 China Insufficient institutional foundations 0, 69 178 Korea (North) Insufficient institutional foundations 0, 68 179 25

Quality of life index Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Relatively high quality of life Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA. • Relatively low quality of life Angola, Benin, Burkina-Faso, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Chad, Dominican Republic, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, the Zambia, Zimbabwe. 26

Quality of life index (0 - 10): examples Country Group Index Rank USA Relatively high quality 6, 53 5 Japan Relatively high quality 6, 05 14 Germany Relatively high quality 5, 55 22 Korea (South) Relatively high quality 4, 66 33 Hungary Relatively high quality 3, 80 43 Argentina Relatively high quality 3, 58 46 Saudi Arabia Relatively low quality 3, 21 56 Russia Relatively low quality 2, 68 73 Iran Relatively low quality 2, 49 85 China Relatively low quality 2, 35 95 Ukraine Relatively low quality 2, 20 101 South Africa Relatively low quality 2, 00 111 Indonesia Relatively low quality 1, 86 116 India Relatively low quality 1, 60 125 Korea (North) Relatively low quality 1, 46 131 Ethiopia Relatively low quality 0, 33 186 Central African Republic Relatively low quality 0, 00 192 27

CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES • General trends • Deviations • Anomalies 28

CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES Index of state consistency Index of national threats Index of institutional foundations of democracy Quality of life index Index of state consistency 1, 000 -0, 627 0, 465 0, 761 0, 581 Index of national threats -0, 627 1, 000 -0, 534 -0, 813 -0, 166 Index of institutional foundations of democracy 0, 465 -0, 534 1, 000 0, 570 0, 156 Quality of life index 0, 761 -0, 813 0, 570 1, 000 0, 321 Influence and involvement index 0, 581 -0, 166 0, 156 0, 321 1, 000 Index of internatio nal influence 29

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CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES Index of Institutional foundations of democracy Polity IV ID (Vanhanen) Political rights (FH) Civil liberties (FH) 1, 000 0, 844 0, 839 -0, 817 -0, 810 Polity IV 0, 844 1, 000 0, 813 -0, 903 -0, 885 ID (Vanhanen) 0, 839 0, 813 1, 000 -0, 803 -0, 801 Political rights (FH) -0, 817 -0, 903 -0, 803 1, 000 0, 951 Civil liberties (FH) -0, 810 -0, 885 -0, 801 0, 951 1, 000 35

CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES (cont. ) HDI Quality of life index 0, 931 36

RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 1. Considerable level of state consistency • Russia is in # 27 rank of the State consistency index after China (12), Italy (18), Belgium (25). • Leaders are USA (1), Japan (2), Germany (4), France (7). 37

RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 2. Profound international influence • Russia is # 7 (after USA, China, Japan, Germany, France and UK and ahead of India, Italy, Canada, Brazil). • 11 leaders of the rating are G 8 + China and India 38

RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 3. Moderate national threats • Russia is in # 81 rank of the national threats index together with Israel and South Korea. • Russia faces a variety of national threats (terrorism, territorial disputes, undiversified exports, depopulation, HIV/AIDS epidemic, etc. ) • Russia is surrounded by a wide zone of countries with grave national threats (Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, Azerbaijan, India, etc. ) 39

RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 4. Fairly average institutional foundations of democracy • Russia is # 93 (lower than Peru but higher than South Africa) • Leaders of the rating are Switzerland, Canada, Netherlands, Denmark and Norway; USA are # 18. 40

RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 5. Average quality of life • Russia is # 73 (Bulgaria, Brazil, Mexico, etc. ) • Leaders of the rating are Luxembourg, Ireland, Norway, USA, Iceland, Australia, etc. ) 41

An experiment with factor analysis • Searching for the principle components • Presentation of countries in the components’ space • Analysis of structures, composed by countries in the components’ space 42

Principle components and their explanatory potential Component Cumulative % 1 55, 366 2 81, 752 3 93, 039 4 100, 000 43

5 indices in the components’ space (components 1 and 2) 44

Countries in the components’ space (components 1 and 2) 45

to be continued… 46