International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA Multi-pollutant

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA Multi-pollutant / multi-effects: Cost-effectiveness Analysis for the 2 nd NOx Protocol

A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem IIASA

Emission densities in 1990 IIASA NOx SO 2

Emission densities in 1990 IIASA NH 3 VOC

Environmental targets IIASA In the year 2010, reduce • health-relevant excess ozone exposure by 2/3, • the area of ecosystems not protected against acidification by 1/2, • vegetation-relevant excess ozone exposure by 1/3, • excess nitrogen deposition (eutrophication) by 60%. Additional targets for ‘hot-spots’

The model: RAINS IIASA Energy/agriculture projections Emission control options Emissions Costs OPTIMIZATION Atmospheric dispersion Environmental impacts Environmental targets

Input assumptions IIASA Energy projections: ‘Pre-Kyoto’, – EU: 10 national, 5 DG-XVII ‘Business as usual’, consistent with EU NEC scenarios – Non-EU: National projections via UN reporting Agricultural projections: – Reviewed by Member States

Input data IIASA Emission inventories: CORINAIR’ 90/94 Cost curves: Developed by IIASA, reviewed by countries Atmospheric dispersion characteristics: EMEP model results Critical loads/levels: National data based on common methodology, collected and reviewed by CCE

Emission control options SO 2 IIASA Low sulfur coal, coke Low sulfur heavy fuel oil Low sulfur gas oil Limestone injection/Fluidized bed combustion Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) Advanced flue gas desulfurization

Emission control options IIASA NOx - Stationary sources Combustion modifications - Low NOx burners, exhaust gas re-circulation, staged combustion, etc. Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) for large boilers Non-selective catalytic reduction (SNCR) for medium and large boilers Control of industrial process emissions

Emission control options Transport sector IIASA Gasoline cars Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards), small carbon canisters Diesel cars Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards) Diesel heavy duty vehicles Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards) Two-stroke engines Oxidation catalysts Off-road machinery Standards equivalent to Euro-III, Euro-IV

Emission control options VOC Stationary sources (1) IIASA Dry cleaning: Good housekeeping and adsorption, closed circuit machines Degreasing: Primary measures, carbon adsorption, conveyored degreaser with integrated adsorption, water based systems, low temperature plasma Domestic solvents: Reformulation Non-industrial paint use: Low solvent paints Industrial paint use: Water based-, high solid-, powderpaints, application modifications, adsorption, incineration

Emission control options VOC Stationary sources (2) IIASA Production of rubber, paint, ink, etc. : Substitution, solvent plans , ‘end-of-pipe’ Application of glues, adhesives (in industry): Housekeeping, substitution, incineration Printing: Housekeeping, water-based ink, ‘end-of-pipe’ Wood preservation: Double vacuum impregnation, dryer enclosure, ‘end-of-pipe’ Refineries, chemical industry: Regular inspection & maintenance, internal floating covers, vapor recovery Fuel storage and distribution: Internal floating covers, Stage II

Emission control options NH 3 IIASA Low nitrogen feed - multi-phase, synthetic amino acids Bio-filtration - bio scrubbers Animal house adaptation - improved design, floor modifications, low NH 3 poultry housing, etc. Covered outdoor storage of manure - rigid lids, floating covers Low ammonia application techniques - immediate incorporation, deep and shallow injection, etc. Fertilizers - urea substitution

The starting point (REF) IIASA National legislation of countries + for EU Member States: present EU legislation and recent Commission proposals/Council agreements – – – – Auto-Oil 1 Solvents Directive Sulfur in liquid fuels Directive Off-road machinery Directive IPPC Heavy duty vehicles post-2005 standards LCP-II, etc.

Results: The G 5/2 scenario IIASA

Country results: G 5/2 IIASA

Main measures in EU countries IIASA SO 2: Control of existing boilers, low sulfur fuels NOx: Control of existing boilers, small sources, off-road machinery VOC: Low solvent paints, application of glues and adhesives, Stage II for gasoline stations NH 3: Urea substitution, low emission animal houses, low ammonia application techniques

Modified ambition levels Acidification IIASA

Modified ambition levels Population exposure index IIASA

Per-capita costs IIASA EU countries, EU Scenario H 1

Uncertainty treatment IIASA • Standard uncertainty analysis is time consuming • Potential influence of uncertainties minimized by – Explicit model confidence intervals – Integral functions for environmental exposure – Compensation mechanism for targets – Excluding extreme situations – Use of ‘gap closure’ targets (relative improvements) • Identification of potential biases

Potential biases (1) IIASA • Critical loads could be stricter. . . – Dynamic effects ignored – Limited spatial resolution • Critical levels for vegetation (ozone) could be too strict. . . – Level 2 approach • Population exposure (ozone) … – overestimated in city centers – underestimated in suburbs

Potential biases (2) IIASA • Constant background ozone …. – ignores decreasing emissions in Europe and N. America – ignores increasing emissions in Asia • Emission control costs too high … – ‘Pre-Kyoto’ energy projections – Add-on technologies only • Emission control potential too small … – Technological progress ignored – No structural changes considered

Sensitivity analyses IIASA ‘Post-Kyoto’ energy projections ‘Low NH 3’ agriculture ‘High SO 2’ energy scenario ‘High NH 3’ agriculture

Sensitivity analysis - results IIASA Variations in SO 2 reductions

Environmental impacts Days with ozone above WHO guideline (60 ppb) IIASA G 5/2 - 2010 1990

Environmental impacts % Ecosystems not protected against acidification IIASA G 5/2 - 2010 1990

Environmental impacts % Ecosystems not protected against eutrophication IIASA G 5/2 - 2010 1990

Uniform or effect-based scenarios? IIASA

Documentation IIASA • Methodology papers • Latest databases • All scenario analyses, interim reports to ECE and EU • On-line model (web version) available at http: //www. iiasa. ac. at/~rains