Intelligent Agent Technology in the Army Transition to

Intelligent Agent Technology in the Army Transition to the Objective Force Dr. Thomas E. Potok Computer Science and Mathematics Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Agent Technology Trend TS N GE A Internet Telephone Face to Face Allowing more work with less people Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2

Successful Projects }We have extensive expertise in Supply Chain Management Agent System agent development Manufacturing Emulation Agent System }Began working with agent Collaborative Decision Support System technologies in 1980 s Neural Nets for Recovery Boiler Control Neural Nets for Bankruptcy Prediction Neural Nets for Spring-back Prediction Collaborative Design System Neural Nets for Resistance. Spot Welding Neural Nets for Material Mix Optimization Genetic Algorithms for Chemical Synthesis }Over 10 successful projects within the last 5 years }Collaborations with leading agent experts Knowledge-based Systems - Manufacturing Advisors Knowledge-based Systems for Constructability Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments Knowledge-based Computer Systems Calibration 1985 1990 1995 2000 Oak Ridge National Laboratory 3

Simple Agent Example Agent, find me the book “War and Peace, ” and I need it tomorrow Amazon 2 Days $18. 50 Barnes and Nobel 1 Day $21. 75 B. Dalton 1 Day $20. 25 . . . Does the agent understand buying books? Form a plan to buy the book Execute the plan Library 1 Day Free e. Bay 1 Day $12. 50 Learn for next time Oak Ridge National Laboratory Order the book 4

Use of Intelligent Agents at US Pacific Command VIPAR Oak Ridge National Laboratory

USPACOM Traditional Approach • Analysts Search 20 -30 papers a day • Manually find the articles on internet • Manually organizing the articles Inside China Unorganized Newspaper Articles Analysts Organized Results NEA Russia Today SEA Jakarta Post Oceania Oak Ridge National Laboratory 6

New Intelligent Approach • Agents search papers and retrieve articles • Organizes and classifies relevant articles • Visually displays organization Inside China Intelligent Agent New Visualization Model Organized Folders NEA Russia Today SEA Jakarta Post Oceania Oak Ridge National Laboratory 7

VIPAR Example “Nuclear Weapons” Search - 9/21/2000 l l l l l Wen Ho Lee Spends First Day Savoring Home Delights Lee Case Points up Scientists' Attitude on Security India and Pakistan: Troubled relations U. S. China Trade Vote Milestone on Rocky Road Troops die in Kashmir clashes Clinton Concerned Over Lee Case - Reno On Defensive IAEA Supports Putin Nuclear Power Initiative China Rejects Moves to Tighten Regulation of Nuclear Materials Clinton Calls For Review Of Lee Secrets Case Asian-Americans Demand White House Action on Lee Oak Ridge National Laboratory 8

l Manual Organization “Business as Usual” Wen Ho Lee 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. l India and Pakistan 6. 7. l India and Pakistan: Troubled relations Troops die in Kashmir clashes IAEA Meeting 8. 9. l Wen Ho Lee Spends First Day Savoring Home Delights Clinton Calls For Review Of Lee Secrets Case Clinton Concerned Over Lee Case - Reno On Defensive Asian-Americans Demand White House Action on Lee Case Points up Scientists' Attitude on Security IAEA Supports Putin Nuclear Power Initiative China Rejects Moves to Tighten Regulation of Nuclear Materials U. S. China Trade 10. U. S. China Trade Vote Milestone on Rocky Road Oak Ridge National Laboratory 9

VIPAR Knowledge Discovery Same result, easier to “see” 3 v 2 Wen Ho Lee 1. 2. Clinton Calls For Review Of Lee Secrets Case 3. Clinton Concerned Over Lee Case - Reno On Defensive 4. Asian-Americans Demand White House Action on Lee 5. 4 Wen Ho Lee Spends First Day Savoring Home Delights Lee Case Points up Scientists' Attitude on Security 1 Wen Ho Lee 5 v India and Pakistan 6. 7. US China Trade India/Pakistan v India and Pakistan: Troubled relations Troops die in Kashmir clashes IAEA Meeting 8. IAEA Meeting China Rejects Moves to Tighten Regulation of Nuclear Materials 10 v 7 IAEA Supports Putin Nuclear Power Initiative 9. 6 U. S. China Trade 10. 8 9 Oak Ridge National Laboratory U. S. China Trade Vote Milestone on Rocky Road 10

VIPAR Summary Agents do the mundane work l Provide a new way to “see” search results l Allows the analyst to focus on deep thinking, not information retrieval and organization l Described by USCINCPAC Science and Technology Advisor as: l – hit a grand slam home run! – first time we've seen information discovery and knowledge management software working here at HQ USCINCPAC operationally. Oak Ridge National Laboratory 11

Intelligent Agent Logistics SURGE MABES 2 p u ro G Group Gro 1 up 3 Group Parts Based on how They are made Develop Common Manufacturing Cells Oak Ridge National Laboratory Optimize “Lean” Cells 12

Results - $12. 8 M Savings l Investment – Agent investment $812 K Total Savings – 1 st phase duration of 9 months l Return – $7. 0 M savings in Inventory Reduction (30%) – $5. 8 M Savings in reduced pricing (23%) – 58% Reduction in lead times (from 220 to 93 Agent Investment { days) l Total – $12. 8 M in total savings – Significant reduction in lead times Oak Ridge National Laboratory 13

Agents in the future Agents are typically developed using simple negotiation methods to solve optimization problems l Our work employs complex information representation, and analysis, as well as negotiation l The next steps involve: l – Working with massive, distributed, and changing information (proposal requested by DOE). – How should groups of agents socially interact. Who can be trusted? (beginning work with Lockheed Martin). – Agents in information warfare and cyber security Oak Ridge National Laboratory 14

Agents Technology l Agent technology can significantly help the Army transition to the objective force. l Solid agent expertise and leadership are available in Oak Ridge l Proven track record of success within the military, government, and industry Oak Ridge National Laboratory 15