INTELLIGENCE BRIEF Maj Matt Hurley 11 WG DSI

INTELLIGENCE BRIEF Maj. Matt Hurley 11 WG/DSI

Question of the Week n Which one is the suicide bomber?

Answer n Sri Lankan suicide bomber “Dhanu, ” moments before killing former Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi, herself, and 17 others

Answer n Bomb concealed under her dress, smuggled through security at an election rally n Detonated the bomb while bending down to touch Gandhi’s feet BOMBER TARGET SECURITY

Suicide Bomb Attacks in Israel 186 74 0 28 46 2 (through 23 Sep)

Results n It’s working – Israelis are terrified n Although this strategy has wrecked their society, Palestinians feel a rising sense of empowerment u They feel they finally have a weapon that creates a balance of power with Israel and, in their fantasies at least, can defeat Israel.

The Allure: Factors in Israel n Desperation and “nothing to live for” compared to “benefits” of conducting a suicide attack u Social status and public praise u Financial reward to families u Rewards of “martyrdom” SUICIDE BOMBERS HAVE BECOME THE “FIGHTER PILOTS” OF PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CAMPS

The Threat Is Spreading n During the 1980 s: Lebanon ¿ Kuwait ¿ Sri Lanka ¿

The Threat Is Spreading n During the 1980 s: Lebanon ¿ Kuwait ¿ Sri Lanka ¿ n 1990 -2002: ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ Israel India Pakistan Yemen Algeria Chechnya Kenya Tanzania Panama Argentina Croatia Australia Turkey Saudi Arabia Afghanistan

Are We Next? n Vice President Cheney: “Inevitable” n FBI Director Robert Mueller: “A real possibility” n Terrorist groups such as al-Qa’ida could try to mimic Palestinian methods here to cause panic “on the cheap” SUICIDE BOMB

Suicide Bomber Characteristics n No real profile u Most are 18 -23, male, and single. BUT: u Can be any race, color, sex u Can be older, married people u Bombers often alter their appearance to “blend in” n Terrorist groups will employ bombers and disguises most likely to defeat security measures…or profiling SUICIDE BOMBER WAFA IDRIS

Modus Operandi n Suicide bombs can be delivered by multiple means, complicating security measures u Vehicle bombs: USMC barracks in Beirut, 1983; Embassy attacks in Africa, 1996 u Boat bombs: USS Cole, 2000 u Individual-borne bombs: the primary method of attack in Israel since 2000 n Terrorists will choose whichever method is most likely to succeed against a particular target

Modus Operandi n A suicide bomber’s success depends on three main elements: u Secrecy is essential to plan and conduct the mission u Thorough reconnaissance and surveillance is required to choose a target and identify its weakness u Extensive rehearsals and “dry runs” are necessary to ensure stealth and speed during the attack n Ultimate goal: inflict as many casualties as possible

Prevention n Traditional concepts of security are based on deterring terrorist attacks u Assumes u But, the terrorist fears death or capture suicide attacks depend on the death of the terrorist u The suicide bomber doesn’t care about his/her death, imprisonment or torture at the time of the attack u No need for an escape plan, traditionally the most difficult part of a terrorist operation

Prevention n There is no sure method of preventing a determined suicide bomber, but… n The surveillance / reconnaissance phase is the best time to spot and thwart attack planning n Strong and obvious force protection measures are the best way to deter a suicide attack u The terrorist group wants to succeed u The suicide bomber does not want to die for nothing u If a target is too tough, they will choose another

Prevention n Be alert for indicators u Surveillance, particularly focusing on access points u Dry runs to identify hazards or security checkpoints u Purchase of, or illicit access to, facility blueprints HIZBALLAH SURVEILLANCE OF NORTHERN ISRAELI SETTLEMENTS

Prevention: Tips from the Israelis n Pamphlet distributed to the public, early Sep 02 n Lists basic external, behavioral indicators: “TERROR: ONLY TOGETHER CAN WE STOP IT”

Prevention: Tips from the Israelis n Pamphlet distributed to the public, early Sep 02 n Lists basic external, behavioral indicators: u Unseasonable dress or conspicuous, bulky clothes u Obvious or awkward attempts to “blend in” to a crowd u Repeated and nervous handling of parts of clothing u Profuse sweating, slow-paced walking while focusing on sides u Attempts to stay away from security personnel u Hesitant, nervous muttering u Perfumed, recently shaved

An Eyewitness Account Extract from the International Herald Tribune, 19 May 2001 n “I saw a young man, with an Arab face, a moustache, very well dressed, with a huge blue jacket and I whispered to my father quietly, ‘Look Dad, it’s a terrorist. ’” The young woman was with her father just across the road from the shopping mall in Netanya. Moments later, the man detonated an explosive device he was wearing, killing seven. n The young woman’s father said that he thought there was something strange about the bomber. He said that the man was completely calm but had wide eyes and showed tension in his face. He was skinny, neatly dressed, and wearing a huge jacket that looked inflated.

Final Thoughts n Military bases are on the “A-List” for targeting by terrorists n The terrorist’s main goal is to inflict as many casualties as possible, in hopes of causing panic and demonstrating the targeted government’s “weakness” n The absence of a “specific, credible threat” doesn’t mean there is no threat

Questions?