Integrated Earthquake Precursor Data Processing a Proposed

Integrated Earthquake Precursor Data Processing & a Proposed Prototype Earthquake Early Warning System J. D. Hochstein, L. E. Fletcher, J. I. Rojas, I. A. Christensen, D. García and C. Borrero On behalf of Team Project TREMOR* International Space University, Summer Session Program 2007, Beijing, China Introduction State of the Art & Gap Analysis • Earthquakes ARE a major hazard for populations around the world, causing loss of life, human suffering and enormous damage to buildings and infrastructures (see Fig. 1) • Recent research on PRECURSOR PHENOMENA (e. g. , thermal IR, seismo-electromagnetic emissions and ionospheric anomalies) basis for the FORECASTING of EARTHQUAKES [1 -5] (see Fig 2) • BUT: Understanding of the science behind far from complete. Controversial in many quarters [6], due to scarce and not conclusive available data at present. • Existing and planned dedicated space missions for monitoring earthquake precursors (see Fig. 3): insufficient for resolving the precursor issue [1]. Their performance (spatial and temporal resolution) does not satisfy the requirements for proper validation of forecasting models • SPACE TECHNOLOGIES, together with GROUND-BASED SYSTEMS, may make it possible to deliver earthquake early warning, provided the above mentioned and other deficiencies are addressed Fig. 1: Global Deaths and Damage Due to Earthquakes (1990 -2006) (NGDC, 2007)) • Team TREMOR (Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response) of 36 space professionals proposed two space-based systems to provide improved capability to manage earthquakes • The first proposal is an Earthquake Early Warning System Fig. 2: Possible channels of the LAI coupling [5]. Fig. 3: Examples of space-based precursor monitoring. Integrated Earthquake Precursor Data Processing & Earthquake Early Warning System • The proposed system provides: • Data analysis & integration module: → A dedicated mission platform for scientific validation of earthquake precursor effects → Processes data and delivers watch or warning to corresponding autoritative organization → A basis for the development of an operational earthquake early warning system → First layer performs real-time computations: data fed into forecasting model that identifies trends that can lead to the issue of a watch or warning • Functional requirements that fulfills: → Long-term, multi-pronged simultaneous repeated monitoring of precursors over target areas → Second layer (executed off-line) takes care of data archiving, further post-processing and distribution → Real-time integration and processing of data from different sources: precursor data, historical data and space weather data → Archive based on data warehousing → Dedicated long term data storage and computational processing resources → Effective data management for historical referencing and effective international data sharing • Precursor data sources: data is gathered from: → Space-based systems: existing missions + proposed small scale satellite constellation based on [1, 3, 4, 7] → Ground-based systems: used to enhance accuracy and to validate measurements from satellites locally DATA ANALYSIS DATA SOURCES Real Time DATA FORECASTING PROCESSING MODEL DATA WAREHOUSE MARTS EQ Historical Records Conclusions • A reliable method forecasting the occurrence of earthquakes from space-based and/or ground-based technologies remains limited to no more than a few minutes before a seismic event occurs • Several claims of earthquake precursors have been put forward, though the science behind these is far from complete • Existing and planned dedicated space missions for monitoring earthquake precursors are insufficient for resolving the precursor issue [1] • To achieve statistically significant validation of precursors for early warning delivery, precursor data must be obtained from simultaneous repeated monitoring of several precursors in focus regions over a long period of time, and then integrated and processed • TREMOR describes methods of systematic evaluation of regionally specific, multivariable precursor data needed for the identification of the expected time, magnitude and the position of the epicentre • This data set forms the basis for a proposed operational early warning system Knowledge Base Scientific Community Distributed Computation → Airborne systems: balloons and Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) • Constellation: 2 satellites (150 kg each) in circular coplanar LEOs to monitor ionospheric precursors and seismoelectromagnetic emissions (sufficient thermal IR data is readily available from existing satellites) [3] Issue Watch/ Warning Other Clients Offline References [1] Pulinets, S. A. & Boyarchuk, K. 2004, Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes. 1 st edn, Springer, Berlin , Germany [2] Hattori, K. & Hayakawa, M. 2007, Transactions of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan, vol. 127(1): 4 -6 [3] Pulinets, S. A. 2006, Advances in Space Research, vol. 37(4): 643 -652 [4] Kodama, T. et al. 2000, Middle Atmosphere and Lower Thermosphere Electrodynamics, vol. 26(8): 1281 -1284 [5] Hayakawa, M. et al. 2004, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, vol. 29: 617 -625 [6] Geller, R. J. 1997 Geophysical Journal International, vol. 131(3): 425 -450 * Members of Team TREMOR: Blanco Delgado, Nuria; Blinova, Alexandra I. ; Borrero del Pino, Cristina; Christensen, Ian A. ; Coffey, Emily; Dong, Xingang; Exposito Cossio, David; Feng, Qiang; Fletcher, Lauren; Gallardo Valdivia, Beatriz; Garcia Yarnoz, Daniel; Harrison, Paul; Hochstein, Jason; Hou, Jinbao; Komeili-Zadeh, Amir; Kondo, Hajime; Kumagai, Daichi; Lavalle, Marco; Liberda, Jonathan; Martin, Annie; Modi, Shaun; Moser, Linda; Mylonas, Apostolos; Oki, Tomohisa; Parvataneni, Sunil; Pironti, Delfina; Proserpio, Laura; Rasheed, Adam; Rodrigues, Ana Margarida; Rojas, Jose; Sarkar, Somya; Stone, Jennifer; Toitsiou, Georgia; Wang, Xiaoyan; Jie, Yang; and Yoshihara, Maki [7] Jason, S. J. et al. 2003, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 361(1802): 169 -173