Institute for Environment Human Security United Nations

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Flood Conference – ICLR, May 6 -8, 2008, Toronto, Canada "Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“ Vulnerability Assessment to United Nations University Floods atfor Environment and Institute the Local Level Human Security Dr. -Ing. Jörn Birkmann, Krings, S. and Renaud, F. (UNU-EHS) Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Content 1. Definition of Vulnerability Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University 2. Conceptual Framework 3. Assessment Process - Questionnaire 4. Selected Results 5. Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability 6. Conclusions Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Vulnerability Definitions “. . . a human condition or process resulting from physical, social, economic, and environmental factors which determine the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given hazard“ (UNDP, 2004) “. . . the likelihood of injury, death, loss, disruption of livelihood or other harm in an extreme event, and/or unusual difficulties in recovering from such effects“ (Wisner, 2002) Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Vulnerability to Floods in Germany Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Exposure Vulnerability Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu Coping Capacity

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University The BBC-Framework Source: Bogardi/Birkmann (2004) and Cardona (1999/2001) Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Sub-National Vulnerability Index Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University n 34 demographic variables e. g. age, education, income n Map shows general vulnerability Data: Federal statistical office 2007, BKG 2007 Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Methodology & Focus Local Level Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Overview Methodology HH Survey Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University METHOD - Household Survey - Standardized interview (closed & open questions) - Quantitative assessment GOAL - generation of new indicators: a) Exposure and knowledge b) Susceptibility c) Coping Capacity SAMPLE - 500 HH per city (selection through city) - Consideration of exposure (HQ 100, HQ 500) & Dr. -Ing. Birkmann - Socio-economic differences UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

[jb 1] Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Case Study Selection in Cologne Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Selected Results Cologne Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Risk Perception: Natural Hazards Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Do you know whether you live in a flood prone area? Did you get or have you gathered information regarding floods? Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

YES, I requested information about floods when I bought/rented house/flat YES, I got information about flooding when I settled in the area Exposure No answer regarding exposure I am living in a flood prone area Institute for Environment & Human Security NO, I did not get any information, nor I gathered information about flooding I am not living in flood prone area United Nations University Exposure and Flood Information Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Coping Capacity Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Susceptibility & Coping Capacity Would you be able to evacuate without external help? Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Where would you go? Institute for Environment & Human Security 0 -29 30 -59 60 -79 80 -99 Friends United Nations University Age groups 61, 4 45, 07 27, 16 20, 83 Relatives 31, 5 43, 56 45, 67 66, 66 Hotel / Pension 1, 75 3, 03 10, 49 8, 33 City or 1, 75 Emergency Accommodation 4, 92 7, 40 - Other - 1, 51 6, 17 - Don‘t know 3, 5 0, 75 1, 85 4, 16 No answer - 1, 13 1, 23 - Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Coping Capacity: Evacuation Capability Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Financial Coping Capacity % of HH with an elementary risk insurance correlation coefficient: 0, 529 Income classes: Dr. -Ing. Birkmann 1) under 500€, 2) 500 to 1000€, 3) 1000 to 1500€, …(…), 13) 6000 € and more UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Vulnerability Hotspots in Cologne Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University n Not the city centre, but the northern and southern parts are highly vulnerable. n Paticularly areas around Rodenkirchen and Weiss – high concentraton of elderly and low flood protection Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu …

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University VA Critical Infrastructures Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Definition “Critical infrastructures consist of those physical and information technology facilities, networks, services and assets which, if disrupted or destroyed, would have a serious impact on the health, safety, security or economic well-being of citizens (…). Critical infrastructures extend across many sectors of the economy, including banking and finance, transport and distribution, energy, utilities, health, food supply and communications, as well as key government services. ” EC 2004 Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

VA Critical Infrastructure: Multi-Layer Society depends on Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Critical Infrastructures … Critical Infrastructure Sector … … Infrastructure … Component … Critical Infrastructure Sector Component Illustration: Susanne Krings, UNU-EHS following the German Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), Source: BBK, Newsletter 372006 Infrastructure … Component Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu … Component … …

Cologne Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Exposure of Critical Infrastructures Example: Electricity supply system Powerplant Transfomer station High voltage power line Rhine HQ 100 HQ 500 Districts Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS Source: UNU-EHS; Data source: BKG (Basis DLM) and Cologne City Administration birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Network and Interdependencies data source: http: //upload. wikimedia. or g/ wikipedia/de/e/ed/Stromv ersorgung. png Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Different Designs of Electricity Systems The first design is highly vulnerable, as failures are likely to affect a large number households. The second design is less vulnerable as in case of a failure the area suffering a blackout is likely to be very small. Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu Source: Verband Schweizerischer Elektrizitätsunternehmen (2008): Netzebenen. http: //www. poweron. ch/de/stromnetz/netzebe nen_content---1 -1224. html (25. 2. 2008)

Ongoing Research: Objects & Structure Society depends on Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Critical Infrastructures … … Operationalisation and aggregation of data collected on the different levels of citical Critical Infrastructure infrastructures as well as the finalisation of Sector the methodology are currently being worked on at UNU-EHS … … Infrastructure … Component Infrastructure … Component Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu … … Component … …

Conclusion 1. Vulnerability assessment at the local level can include more easily new methods and additional data collection. Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University 2. Measuring susceptibility and coping capacity is crucial. 3. The case study of Cologne shows that people who are saying we live in a flood prone area have been less active in gathering flood information data when they choose their place of living. 4. Human vulnerability implies other hot-spots than financial vulnerability (city centre versus living areas). 5. VA of critical infrastructure is a key subject, but data gathering is a challenge. Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu

More Information: www. ehs. unu. edu Institute for Environment & Human Security United Nations University Thank You for Your Attention! birkmann@ehs. unu. edu Dr. -Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs. unu. edu