INSIGHTS ON DISASTER RESILIENCE FROM 2008 S DISASTERS AND

INSIGHTS ON DISASTER RESILIENCE FROM 2008’S DISASTERS AND DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE DISASTERS AND THE CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS 2008

NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008 CYCLONE NARGIS NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE FLOODING IN MIDWESTERN USA CATALYSTS FOR CHANGE TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA ERUPTION OF VOLCANO CHAITEN GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

MAIN IDEA Each disaster provides deeper insights on: 1) Protection, 2) Preparedness, 3) Early Warning, 4) Emergency Response, and 5) Recovery and Reconstruction

BO OK KN OF OW - P ers LE On pe Sc cti DG ien ve E s ce An nd , P DI oli SA cy RE ST , SIL ER IEN CE

GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE FLOODS IMPROVE ON PAST PERFORMANCE INCREASED TECHNICAL AND POLITICL CAPACITY OF COMMUNITY TO COPE INCREASED OWNERSHIP AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE SEVERE WIND STORMS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES WILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TERRORISM

RISK ASSESSMENT • HAZARDS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK YOUR GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE COMMUNITY FIVE PILLARS OF RESILIENCE HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS • PROTECTION • PEPAREDNESS • EARLY WARNING • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.

QUICK REVIEWS

SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS DURING 2008 • CYCLONE NARGIS, MYANMAR (BURMA), MAY 2 -3

PATH OF CYCLONE NARGIS: WARNING IGNORED: MAY 2 -3, 2008

CYCLONE NARGIS: • People unprepared. • The storm's 120 mph winds blew roofs off hospitals, downed trees, and cut electricity to the country's largest city, Rangon. • Torrential rain caused local flooding.

ODDS AGAINST SURVIVAL: Political • Myanmar’s policies of selfsufficiency delayed entry of food and materials from all but a few countries, and usually without the skilled disaster workers.

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS • WHEN YOU HAVE EARLY WARNING, USE IT TO EVACUATE THE PEOPLE IN HARM’S WAY • MORE LIVES ARE SAVED AND RECOVERY IS ACCELERATED WHEN YOU ARE PREPARED TO ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS DURING 2008 • VOLCANO CHAITEN (CHILE), MAY 3

AFTER 10, 000 YEAR DORMANCY, CHAITEN ERUPTS IN CHILE

CHAITEN‘S ERUPTION CHANGED THE STATUS QUO • PRESIDENT DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY • 1500 EVACUATED • DRINKING WATER CONTAMINATED

CHAITEN CAUSES SEA EVACUATIONS

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM VOLCANO CHAITEN • EVACUATE THE PEOPLE IN HARM’S WAY WHEN YOU HAVE RELIABLE EARLY WARNING • DON’T BECOME UN-PREPARED JUST BECAUSE NO ERUPTIONS HAVE HAPPENED FOR A LONG TIME, EVEN IF THE VOLCANO IS NOT IN YOUR COUNTRY

SEVEN NOTABLE DISASTERS DURING 2008 • WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE; MAY 12

WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE • 88, 000 DEAD • 25 MILLIONS HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED • NO MODERN BUILDING CODE

CLEANUP AND RECONSTRUCTION UNDERWAY: JULY 9, 2008

TWENTY-ONE DAYS LATER 45, 690, 000 people were affected by the disaster.

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE • BUILDINGS COLLAPSE, INFRASTRUCTURE LOSES FUNCTION, LIVES ARE LOST, AND MONEY IS WASTED WHEN BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE ARE NOT PROTECTED BY MODERN BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS.

SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE DISASTERS DURING 2008 • FLOODING IN MIDWEST USA, JUNE 5 -16

AFFECTED MIDWESTERN STATES: JUNE 2008

Thousands Evacuated and Hundreds of Thousands Affected Few Deaths, but Losses Reach Billions 5 -16 June 2008

FLOODED CORNFIELDS IN DECATUR, ILLINOIS; JUNE 5 TH

ILLINOIS' LEVEE BREAKS: JUNE 10 TH

SAND BAGS: CEDAR FALLS, IOWA; JUNE 11 TH

UNUSUAL FLOODING IN IOWA: A “ 500 YEAR FLOOD” SITUATION DEVELOPED AS NINE IOWA RIVERS REACHED OR APPROACHED HISTORIC LEVELS.

FLOODING: CEDAR RAPIDS, IOWA; JUNE 12 TH

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM USA’S FLOODS • MONITORING, EARLY WARNING, EVACUATION, AND WETLANDS, SANDBAGS, LEVEES, AND DAMS ARE VITAL FOR SAVING LIVES AND PROTECTING PROPERTY. • BEING PREPARED INCLUDES CONSIDERATION OF POSSIBLE WATER-BORNE DISEASES

SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE DISASTERS DURING 2008 • 16 SEVERE WINDSTORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN; 2008 SEASON

HURRICANE IKE: ONE OF 16 STORMS; SEPT 11

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM 2008’S SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION TO MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY ARE VITAL FOR SAVING LIVES • WIND ENGINEERING PROTECTS PROPERTY • INSURANCE SPREADS RISK

SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS • CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES, JULY

WILDFIRE IN YOSEMITE VALLEY NATIONAL PARK: JULY 29, 2008

FIRE SUPRESSION; JULY t

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM CALIFORNIA’S WILDFIRES • EARLY WARNING PROVIDES TIME TO EVACUATE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE IN HARM’S WAY • POST-WILDFIRES SLOPES ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MUDFLOWS • REGIONAL COOPERATION SPEEDS RESPONSE AND RECOVERY

SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS • GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, ONGOING

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A DEVELOPING ISSUE • Small European glaciers are melting. • Larger glaciers, Greenland, and Antarctica are also melting, but much slower. • Average global temperature is rising. • Sea level is rising.

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE • LONG-TERM MONITORING IS VITAL FOR UNDERSTANDING WHAT IS HAPPENING OVER TIME, AND WHY • UNDERSTANDING IS THE KEY TO REALISTIC ADAPTATION TO THE CHANGES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES AND POLICIES

CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIOS NOVEMBER 2008

SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR CALIFORNIA ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR Source: US Geological Survey

QUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO THE GOAL: Identify the physical, social and economic consequences of major earthquakes in California, so that end users can identify what they can change now —before the earthquake —to avoid catastrophic impacts after the earthquake.

HAYWARD FAULT ZONE

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SCENARIO • The Bay Area straddles the boundary between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates. • Much of the stress release is on the San Andreas fault, but some of it is relieved by the Hayward fault and other smaller parallel faults.

A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO • A Hayward fault earthquake is likely to be one of the nation's biggest natural disasters. • A Hayward fault quake damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses and the campus of UC Berkeley and impacts 7 million people.

HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA • A M 7. 0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage.

HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA • The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will likely lose some or all of their function for days to weeks.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA

THE M 7. 8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE • The M 7. 8 Shake. Out earthquake will cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion losses. • These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs for buildings and lifelines.

THE M 7. 8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE • The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because much more retrofitting can still be done.

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM THE CA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS • DISASTER PLANNING IS INCOMPLETE WITHOUT REALISTIC INTEGRATION OF THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT