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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND ITS IMPACT ON SCIENCE, CULTURE AND SOCIETY Lotfi A. Zadeh Computer INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND ITS IMPACT ON SCIENCE, CULTURE AND SOCIETY Lotfi A. Zadeh Computer Science Division Department of EECS UC Berkeley University of Bremen October 10, 2003 URL: http: //www-bisc. cs. berkeley. edu URL: http: //zadeh. cs. berkeley. edu/ Email: [email protected] berkeley. edu 1 LAZ 10/7/2003

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PREAMBLE l l As a student at MIT and later as an instructor at PREAMBLE l l As a student at MIT and later as an instructor at Columbia University, I witnessed the birth of this revolution and observed at close distance its progression and impact l 3 We are in the midst of what is popularly called the information revolution—a revolution which was born shortly after the end of World War II. My lecture is a brief account of my perceptions of the birth and evolution of information technology and its impact on science, culture and society LAZ 10/7/2003

ORGANIZATION Part A l Evolution of information technology (IT) and intelligent systems technology (IST) ORGANIZATION Part A l Evolution of information technology (IT) and intelligent systems technology (IST) l From sciences of the natural to sciences of the artificial l From human IQ to machine IQ (MIQ) l Impact of IT/IST on science, culture and society Part B l Organization of information-technology-centered research and education 4 LAZ 10/7/2003

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THE BEGINNING OF THE AGE OF INFORMATION AND CONTROL Three major events (ca. 1946)heralded THE BEGINNING OF THE AGE OF INFORMATION AND CONTROL Three major events (ca. 1946)heralded the beginning of the age of information and control l Invention of the transistor Debut of cybernetics (Wiener) Debut of information theory (Shannon) I heard the first presentation by Shannon of his work at a meeting in New York, in 1946, and was deeply fascinated by his ideas. His lecture opened a new world 6 LAZ 10/7/2003

THE NEW WORLD l l It was widely believed that there were no limits THE NEW WORLD l l It was widely believed that there were no limits to what machines could do l The era of thinking machines has arrived l 7 The new world was the world of machine intelligence and automated reasoning Inspired by what I saw, heard and read, I wrote an article about thinking machines which was published in a student magazine LAZ 10/7/2003

THINKING MACHINES—A NEW FIELD IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING Lotfi A. Zadeh “Psychologists Report Memory is THINKING MACHINES—A NEW FIELD IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING Lotfi A. Zadeh “Psychologists Report Memory is Electrical, ” “Electric Brain Able to Translate Foreign Languages is Being Built, ” Electronic Brain Does Research, ” “Scientists Confer on Electronic Brain, ”—these are some of the headlines that were carried in newspapers throughout the nation during the past year. What is behind these headlines? How will “electronic brains” or “thinking machines” affect our way of living? What is the role played by electrical engineers in the design of these devices? These are some of the questions that we shall try to answer in this article. 8 Columbia Engineering Quarterly, January 1950 LAZ 10/7/2003

CONTINUED Through their association with mathematicians, electrical engineers working on thinking machines have become CONTINUED Through their association with mathematicians, electrical engineers working on thinking machines have become familiar with such hitherto remote subjects as Boolean algebra, multivalued logic, and so forth. And it seems that the time is not far distant when taking a course in mathematical logic will be just as essential to a graduate student in electrical engineering as taking a course in complex variable is at the present time. Time marches on. 9 Columbia Engineering Quarterly, January 1950 LAZ 10/7/2003

A GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE (LAZ 1950) l l 10 It is 1965. Three A GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE (LAZ 1950) l l 10 It is 1965. Three years ago for reasons of economy and efficiency the trustees of Columbia University have decided to disband the Office of University Admissions and to install in its place a thinking machine to be called the Electronic Director of Admissions. Installation was completed in the spring of 1964, and since then the Director has been functioning perfectly and has won unanimous acclaim from administration, faculty and student body alike Columbia Engineering Quarterly, January 1950 LAZ 10/7/2003

ELECTRONIC DIRECTOR OF ADMISSIONS (1950) probabilistic if-then rules record encoding (a 1, …, an) ELECTRONIC DIRECTOR OF ADMISSIONS (1950) probabilistic if-then rules record encoding (a 1, …, an) accept if Prob {Event (a 1, …, an)} and Condition D Event: survive first year Condition: registration N If X is A and Prob (Y is B|X is A) is C and Condition is D then Action is E 11 LAZ 10/7/2003

EXAGGERATED EXPECTATIONS l Like others, I had exaggerated expectations. Here are two of many EXAGGERATED EXPECTATIONS l Like others, I had exaggerated expectations. Here are two of many examples l On the occasion of inauguration of IBM’s Mark 1 relay computer in 1948, Howard Aiken, Director of Harvard’s Computation Laboratory, had this to say: There is no problem in applied mathematics that this computer cannot solve l 12 In 1953, Burroghs Corporation started a project to design, manufacture and market a phonetic typewriter LAZ 10/7/2003

BRILLIANT SUCCESSES AND CONSPICUOUS FAILURES successes l landing men on the moon l GPS BRILLIANT SUCCESSES AND CONSPICUOUS FAILURES successes l landing men on the moon l GPS systems l search engines l bioinformatics failures l summarization l simultaneous translation l automation of driving in city traffic l tennis-playing robot 13 LAZ 10/7/2003

EXAGGERATED EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY l l 14 Exaggerated claims and expectations persisted through the EXAGGERATED EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY l l 14 Exaggerated claims and expectations persisted through the fifties, sixties, seventies and eighties The difficulties of achieving AI’s goals were greatly underestimated But today it is not an exaggeration to say that we are in the initial stages of two related revolutions: information revolution; and intelligent systems revolution Information revolution has higher visibility because it manifests itself in new products, while intelligent systems revolution is associated with enhancement of intelligence of existing products LAZ 10/7/2003

INFORMATION SYSTEMS / INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS INFORMATION REVOLUTION INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS REVOLUTION INTERNET WORLD WIDE WEB INFORMATION SYSTEMS / INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS INFORMATION REVOLUTION INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS REVOLUTION INTERNET WORLD WIDE WEB WIRELESS TELEPHONY FAX DIGITAL LIBRARIES DATA MINING INFORMATION RETRIEVAL … SMART CAMERAS SMART APPLIANCES SMART CARS SMART ELEVATORS SMART ROBOTS INTELLIGENT MANUFACTURING EXPERT SYSTEMS SMART SEARCH ENGINES SMART QUALITY CONTROL … Measure of intelligence: MIQ (Machine Intelligence Quotient) 15 LAZ 10/7/2003

IQ vs. MIQ (LAZ 1993) MIQ= Machine Intelligence Quotient (Machine IQ) IQ is a IQ vs. MIQ (LAZ 1993) MIQ= Machine Intelligence Quotient (Machine IQ) IQ is a measure of human intelligence MIQ is a measure of machine intelligence IQ is class-independent MIQ is class-dependent (MIQ of cameras and MIQ of washing machines involve different dimensions and different tests) IQ is time-independent MIQ is time-dependent (dimensions and tests change with time) a human is intelligent if he/she has high IQ a machine is intelligent if it has high MIQ 16 LAZ 10/7/2003

MACHINE INTELLIGENT QUOTIENT (MIQ) Dimension of MIQ l handwriting recognition l speech recognition l MACHINE INTELLIGENT QUOTIENT (MIQ) Dimension of MIQ l handwriting recognition l speech recognition l natural language understanding l summarization l disambiguation l image understanding and pattern recognition l diagnostics l unstructured storage and retrieval of information l execution of high level instructions (expressed in NL) l learning l reasoning l planning l problem solving l decision making 17 LAZ 10/7/2003

INFORMATION /INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS (I/IS) intelligent systems intelligent information systems Information/intelligent systems= information systems + INFORMATION /INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS (I/IS) intelligent systems intelligent information systems Information/intelligent systems= information systems + intelligent/information systems l l 18 information/intelligent systems are emerging as the primary component of the infrastructure of modern societies conception, design, construction and utilization of information/intelligent systems constitute the core of modern science and technology LAZ 10/7/2003

ULTIMATE GOAL Intelligent Decision Systems SUBGOAL Intelligent Information Systems 19 LAZ 10/7/2003 ULTIMATE GOAL Intelligent Decision Systems SUBGOAL Intelligent Information Systems 19 LAZ 10/7/2003

INFORMATION SYSTEM vs. INTELLIGENT INFORMATION SYSTEM SIEMENS FUZZY PARKING CONTROL (1996) Parking garage Parking INFORMATION SYSTEM vs. INTELLIGENT INFORMATION SYSTEM SIEMENS FUZZY PARKING CONTROL (1996) Parking garage Parking Garage Marienplatz Parking Garage Stachus 20 FULL FREE LAZ 10/7/2003

INFORMATION/INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS (I/IST) l l l 21 Information/intelligent systems are becoming a reality But INFORMATION/INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS (I/IST) l l l 21 Information/intelligent systems are becoming a reality But why did it take so long? The necessary technologies and methodologies were not in place Key technologies: advanced computer hardware and software advanced sensor hardware and software Key methodology: soft computing LAZ 10/7/2003

SENSOR AFFORDABILITY Adaptive Logic Announces Availability of the AL 220 in ROM Versions EEPROM SENSOR AFFORDABILITY Adaptive Logic Announces Availability of the AL 220 in ROM Versions EEPROM version prices 30% San Jose, Calif. , April 16, 1996 – Adaptive Logic today is announcing the immediate availability of ROM versions of the AL 220, its flagship analog controller. The product will be priced at $1. 25 in high volume making it the most cost effective analog controller on the market. As with the EEPROM version the ROM version will be available in 18 PDIP and 20 SOIC packages 22 LAZ 10/7/2003

TIMELINE OF GROWTH OF MIQ (LAZ) MIQ 1960 1980 logic-based AI (symbolic AI) 23 TIMELINE OF GROWTH OF MIQ (LAZ) MIQ 1960 1980 logic-based AI (symbolic AI) 23 2000 + perception-based AI + soft computing-based AI (probabilistic + evolutionary + fuzzy + machine learning) LAZ 10/7/2003

CONTINUED l l core concept in IS: MIQ (Machine Intelligence Quotient) l reformulated goal CONTINUED l l core concept in IS: MIQ (Machine Intelligence Quotient) l reformulated goal of AI: realization of intelligent systems with high MIQ l 24 key methodology: soft computing Jules Verne (ca. 1900): scientific progress is driven by exaggerated expectations LAZ 10/7/2003

WHAT IS SOFT COMPUTING (SC) l l l 25 Soft computing is a coalition WHAT IS SOFT COMPUTING (SC) l l l 25 Soft computing is a coalition (consortium, partnership, alliance) of computing methodologies which collectively provide a foundation for the conception, design, construction and utilization of information/intelligent systems The principal members of soft computing are: fuzzy logic (FL), neurocomputing (NC), evolutionary computing (EC) and probabilistic computing (PC) Members of soft computing are for the most part complementary and symbiotic rather than competitive LAZ 10/7/2003

EVOLUTION OF AI l From hard computing to soft computing l From manipulation of EVOLUTION OF AI l From hard computing to soft computing l From manipulation of measurements to manipulation of perceptions 26 LAZ 10/7/2003

IMPACT OF IT/IST l l l IT/IST is rapidly emerging as a dominant component IMPACT OF IT/IST l l l IT/IST is rapidly emerging as a dominant component of science and technology IT/IST has a major bearing on economy and economic competiveness IT/IST has a pronounced impact on culture and social structure and yet l some of the facets of IT/IST impact are a cause of concern 27 LAZ 10/7/2003

CONTINUED l Employment l The curse of efficiency l The 28 big brother crisis CONTINUED l Employment l The curse of efficiency l The 28 big brother crisis of undercoordination LAZ 10/7/2003

IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT (US) l IT Responsible for Most Productivity Gains (Computing Research News, IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT (US) l IT Responsible for Most Productivity Gains (Computing Research News, September 2003) l productivity up employment down l 3 million jobs lost in the United States since 2001 2. 2 million jobs lost in manufacturing l 20 million jobs in manufacturing in 1980 l 14 million jobs in manufacturing in 2003 l Unemployment down 29 LAZ 10/7/2003

THE BIG BROTHER l l 30 The new screening program, the Computer Assisted Passenger THE BIG BROTHER l l 30 The new screening program, the Computer Assisted Passenger Profile System (Capps) will seek to determine which passengers will be forbidden to fly on suspicion of terrorism, or at least warrant extra screening. (New York Times, September 27, 2003. ) Jet Blue acknowledged last week that it had turned over information on more than a million passengers, without their knowledge, to a Defense Department contractor LAZ 10/7/2003

THE CURSE OF EFFICIENCY l The quest for efficiency is driven by l l THE CURSE OF EFFICIENCY l The quest for efficiency is driven by l l maximization of stock price l 31 maximization of profit l l competition enhancement of value of stock options Cult of efficiency leads to curse of efficiency LAZ 10/7/2003

CRISIS OF UNDERCOORDINATION (LAZ 1973) l Scientific progress, and especially progress in information and CRISIS OF UNDERCOORDINATION (LAZ 1973) l Scientific progress, and especially progress in information and communication technologies, leads to higher degree of interaction and interdependence l The higher the degree of interaction and interdependence, the greater the need for coordination and control l Highly interdependent systems are vulnerable to catastrophic failures examples: blackouts air traffic control 32 LAZ 10/7/2003

CONTINUED l l As a consequence, in democratic societies there is a crisis of CONTINUED l l As a consequence, in democratic societies there is a crisis of undercoordination l 33 In democratic societies the level of coordination is insufficient because the voters do not like regulation and control In this perspective, moves toward deregulation and privatization are—in some cases—moves in the wrong direction LAZ 10/7/2003

A DISQUIETING TREND INVERSION OF VALUES PAST research money 34 NOW research LAZ 10/7/2003 A DISQUIETING TREND INVERSION OF VALUES PAST research money 34 NOW research LAZ 10/7/2003

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There is a widening gap between the status of IT/IST in EU, on one There is a widening gap between the status of IT/IST in EU, on one side, and USA and Asia, on the other • What, if anything, could or should be done by EU to reduce the gap? 36 LAZ 10/7/2003

TAIWAN (2002) (SOURCE: DR. C. T. LIN & DR. A. IKEDA) Population: 23 million TAIWAN (2002) (SOURCE: DR. C. T. LIN & DR. A. IKEDA) Population: 23 million l Exports: 131 billion l IT exports: 10 billion l Trade: 243 billion l R&D: 6 billion l Science Park: workforce 100, 000; revenue: 10 billion l 37 LAZ 10/7/2003

CONTINUED IT-related Academic Research Projects Funded by NSC Number of Projects Budget 2001 6000 CONTINUED IT-related Academic Research Projects Funded by NSC Number of Projects Budget 2001 6000 100 million 2003 7000 120 million • National R&D Projects Funded by the Government • Nanoscience and Nanotechnology 2003 -2008: 800 million 38 LAZ 10/7/2003

JAPAN (Dr. T. Takagi) l Exports (2001): 400 billion l Employment in IT-related Industries: JAPAN (Dr. T. Takagi) l Exports (2001): 400 billion l Employment in IT-related Industries: wide 4 million (2000); 3. 9 million (2002) narrow 2. 2 million (2000); 2. 4 million (2002) l National Institute of Informatics: Budget: 100 million/year 39 LAZ 10/7/2003

IT RELATED WORKFORCE (%) No. of researchers/1 k Taiwan 4. 7 USA 10 Japan IT RELATED WORKFORCE (%) No. of researchers/1 k Taiwan 4. 7 USA 10 Japan 7. 3 Canada 4. 7 Austria 4. 8 Korea 2. 8 Singapor 3. 8 e China. 6 40 LAZ 10/7/2003

TECHNOLOGICAL SUPERIORITY Technological superiority of the United States in IT/IST is rooted in l TECHNOLOGICAL SUPERIORITY Technological superiority of the United States in IT/IST is rooted in l (a) Enormous expenditures by the Defense Department l (b) Realization that science is good business However, there are dark clouds on the horizon l In the United States, 5% of students go into engineering l In China, 40% of students go into engineering l Growing fractions of research and manufacturing are outsorced l 41 LAZ 10/7/2003

SUPPORT OF RESEARCH l l Prominent example of success is the Internet l 42 SUPPORT OF RESEARCH l l Prominent example of success is the Internet l 42 In the United States, Department of Defense has played and is continuing to play a major role in supporting both basic and applied research in information technology and intelligent systems Defense-Department supported basic research is long range and not linked to military needs or commercial prospects LAZ 10/7/2003

SOME RELEVANT NUMBERS (US) l IT industry employment: 6. 6 million (2000) l IT SOME RELEVANT NUMBERS (US) l IT industry employment: 6. 6 million (2000) l IT R&D investment by federal government: 2. 05 billion (2003) l NSF budget: 5 billion (2003) CISE: 527 million l DARPA budget: 2. 7 billion (2003) Defense Advanced: Research Projects Agency 43 6. 1: 175 million (basic) 6. 2: 1. 24 billion (applied) 6. 3: 1. 22 billion LAZ 10/7/2003

EDUCATION (US; 2002) (Taulbee Report) l No. of students l BS: 23, 000 l EDUCATION (US; 2002) (Taulbee Report) l No. of students l BS: 23, 000 l MS: 8, 000 l Ph. D: 10, 000 l Ph. D degrees: 850 l Faculty: 5, 500 44 LAZ 10/7/2003

SOME STATISTICS (UC) l l Funding of research l Federal 64% l Foundation 19% SOME STATISTICS (UC) l l Funding of research l Federal 64% l Foundation 19% l State 8% l Industry 2% EECS 61 million (2002) DOD 45 NSF 36% NIH 34% NASA 10% DOD 7% 60% LAZ 10/7/2003

EXCERPTS FROM A RECENT REPORT FROM THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES (Computer Week 9 -22 -03) EXCERPTS FROM A RECENT REPORT FROM THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES (Computer Week 9 -22 -03) l l 46 The federal government’s support of information technology research is “essential” and must be raised to meet the growing challenges researchers face, according to a new report from the National Academies’ Computer Science and Telecommunications Board The report, released by the National Academies today, states that agencies such as the National Science Foundation and the Defense Advanced Researched Projects Agency must play larger roles in IT research and must have the government’s support to sustain a broad scope of research LAZ 10/7/2003

CONTINUED l 47 Government support for IT research should complement industrial research, the board CONTINUED l 47 Government support for IT research should complement industrial research, the board said. Federal sponsorship of universitybased research programs must also continue in order to develop an IT talent base to support future growth in both government and industrial research. LAZ 10/7/2003

WHAT SHOULD EU DO? SUGGESTION l EU should assign a high priority to the WHAT SHOULD EU DO? SUGGESTION l EU should assign a high priority to the establishment of l EU Center for Advanced Research, Development and Education in Information Technology and Intelligent Systems 48 LAZ 10/7/2003

PRINCIPAL FEATURES budget: 200 -300 million euros/ year I /capita/year (budget of National Institute PRINCIPAL FEATURES budget: 200 -300 million euros/ year I /capita/year (budget of National Institute of Informatics in Tokyo is 100 million dollars/year) l small permanent staff l staffed mostly by visiting members l visitors from academia and industry l matrix structure of projects in hardware, software and brainware l intensive on site and distance courses in emerging technologies and methodologies l dissemination of knowledge through publication of reports l extensive computing and library facilities l 49 LAZ 10/7/2003

A PROBLEM WITH DEMOCRACIES l democracies are governed by elected representatives a concomitant l A PROBLEM WITH DEMOCRACIES l democracies are governed by elected representatives a concomitant l l 50 in democracies, future generations have no vote nevertheless, I am optimistic that the EU Center for Advanced Research, Development and Education in Information Technology and Intelligent System Technology will become a reality in the not distant future LAZ 10/7/2003