Influence Freewrite Do trailer parks cause tornadoes

Influence

Freewrite Do trailer parks cause tornadoes? Why or why not? Why would somebody ask that? Why do I ask? • Don’t forget to turn this in for participation credit!

Tornados and trailer parks

The problem of “buying votes” • Interest groups do give – To members on committees important to their policy area – More money right before an important vote • Members do vote with the groups that give them money • Problem of simultaneous causation

Which is cause and which is effect? Member takes issue positions favorable to an interest group Interest group gives a campaign contribution Member votes with interest group Interest group lobbies member

When members of Congress decide how to cast a vote, what do they consider?

How do members of Congress make decisions? Determinative Major Minor Not importance important Constituents 7% 31% 51% 12% Fellow MC’s 5% 42% 28% 25% Party leaders 0% 5% 32% 63% Interest groups 1% 25% 40% 35% Administration 4% 14% 21% 61% Staff 1% 8% 26% 66%

How do MC’s make decisions? • • • Fellow members Constituents Interest Groups President Party Staff

Complexity of Interest Group influence Campaign Contributions & lobbying Constituents Going public Interest Group loyalty Campaign contributions / revolving door Party Other members Member of Congress

Interest groups and the public • Get own members to write to/visit member of Congress – Particularly MC’s own constituents! • Lobby the public – Get journalists to cover group’s issue/research/demonstrations – Run TV ads about upcoming vote – Take part in the culture war

Complexity of Interest Group influence Campaign Contributions & lobbying Constituents Going public Interest Group loyalty Campaign contributions / revolving door Party Other members Member of Congress

Methodological issues • Of course they’d say that. • Is there a mechanism? • How to take all factors into account? – “Statistics”!

Research conclusions • PAC contributions don’t buy votes on issues that constituents are aware of, or party cares about • • PAC Contributions may influence… committee votes on amendments level of member activity tax and regulatory bills (low profile) more than spending bills

How could we prove that campaign contributions/access/lobbying affects congressional outcomes? Member takes issue positions favorable to an interest group Interest group gives a campaign contribution Member votes with interest group Interest group lobbies member