Inflection Point in Metering Billing CRM CIS Tim Smith

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Inflection Point in Metering, Billing, CRM/CIS Tim Smith, Ph. D Directorial Editor, The Wiglaf

Pre Inflection 1995 – 2003 time frame • Key Business Drivers – – Y 2 K Automate Business Processes Outsource Non-Core Processes Best of Breed • Result – CIS perceived as “back-office function” – Productized CIS displaced consulting approach yielding the rise of Peace, SPL, SCT, and SAP – AMR perceived as means to lower operating costs – Drive by solutions and one-way communication approaches dominated the market through Itron ERTS, Cell. Net contracts – Hunt & DCSI dominated the Rural Coop market © 2005 Wiglaf LLC 2

“But many value added retail services require two-way information exchange between the consumer and the marketplace. ” “To realize the vision of the smart power-delivery system, standardized communications architecture must first be developed and overlaid on today’s system. ” © 2005 Wiglaf LLC Physics Today, December 2004 4

“Peoples cut staff; Nicor hasn’t. ” Guess who had AMR? “Peoples cut costs for delinquent accounts 16% since 2002 …. Nicor … saw uncollected accounts climb 21%. ” Guess who responded to delinquent accounts buy purchasing a Credit & Collection module from a major CIS vendor? © 2005 Wiglaf LLC Crain’s Chicago Business, Nov 15, 2004 5

“… systems and practices now exist that can drastically reduce energy and water theft

Otter Tail gains PBR Rate approval in Jan 2004 Energy Planning Network awards Anaheim

2004 Inflection • Key Business Drivers – Outage / Restoration Management – Revenue Protection – Performance Based Rates • © 2005 Wiglaf LLC New Utility Business Drivers drive technology developments. 8

CIS Industry • • Poor demand implies poor fortunes for CIS vendors. • © 2005 Wiglaf LLC At MAM 04, Warren B. Causey forecasted less than 5 CIS sales would occur in the IOU market during the next 3 years. How should they react? 9

2004 Mergers & Restructuring • SPL – SPL = CIS – CES = Outage Management – Synergen = Workforce Management • INDUS – Indus Customer Suite (SCT/Banner) = CIS – Indus Service Suite (Wishbone) = Work Order Management – Indus Asset Management (Passport + In. Site) © 2005 Wiglaf LLC 10

Value Creating Acquisition or Executive Exuberance? • Most Mergers & Acquisitions fail to provide value to shareholders and customers while most do provide value to the CEO. Key attributes of those that do add value to shareholders and customers posses • 1. 2. • Contrast • • © 2005 Wiglaf LLC Market Driven Synergies Maintenance of Organizational Coherence SPL vs. Indus SPL & Indus vs. Peace & Excelergy CES & Wishbone vs. Milsoft, Mini. Max, NISC Future Expectations for Survivors? 11

AMR Industry © 2005 Wiglaf LLC Wiglaf North American Market Forecast 2003 12

Wiglaf Tech Market Diffusion Model for Future Sales Predicted 14. 2 M units sold

Opportunities are Unevenly Shared • Itron – Shipped 4. 5 MM units in 2004, 4. 3 MM units in 2003 – Mere 4% increase in a market growing by 20% per annum • DCSI – Net sales of $137. 8 MM in 2004, $142. 3 MM in 2003 – 3% decline in a market growing by 20% per annum • Cell. Net Reorganizes again • HUNT – Private conversations imply 20% increase • New Entrants performed well © 2005 Wiglaf LLC – Cannon revamped marketing plan penetrates market – Mesh networks grab foothold through Tantalus and Elster – Speed. Read takes off in Submetering – Water metering through Badger, Hexagram, etc. 14

2004: Match the Product to the Need Water One-Way PLC Gas Two-Way PLC Electricity • Monthly Meter Reads • Outage Management • C&I Interval Data • Remote Disconnect • Theft Detection • On Demand Reads Drive By Mesh Networks Cellular Networks Telephone Lines Pagers • Demand Response © 2005 Wiglaf LLC • Load Management 15

New Needs, New Winners • IOU and Coops alike are driven by – Reducing Costs & – Improving Reliability • In 2004, we hit the inflection point where the latter became as important as the former. • 2004 technology winners are addressing reliability issues. © 2005 Wiglaf LLC Tim Smith, Ph. D 773 395 2983 tsmith@wiglafjournal. com 16

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