INDONESIA: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010 -11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010
Part I The World Economy
The world economic outlook, 2009 -2011 Description 2009 2010* 2011* World GDP growth, % -0. 6 4. 2 4. 3 -United States -2. 4 3. 1 2. 6 -Euro Area -4. 1 1. 0 1. 5 -Japan -Developing economies -5. 2 1. 9 2. 0 2. 4 6. 3 6. 5 -China 8. 7 10. 0 9. 9 -India 5. 7 8. 8 8. 4 -Asean-5 1. 7 5. 4 5. 6 World trade growth, % -10. 7 7. 0 6. 1 * Projection Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010
Leading economic indocators kian membaik
Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb. Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) August 2010 03: 58 p. m EDT US$76. 81 = Source: http: //online. wsj. com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities. html §Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118 §Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 §Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 §Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 • Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
Oil prices and stock market = 10, 497. 88 Source: http: //online. wsj. com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities. html
Oil prices and gold (Dec. , Comex) = $1165. 9 Source: http: //online. wsj. com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities. html
The “financialization” of commodities has led to greater financial investor interest Remarks by John Lipsky (IMF) At the 4 th OPEC International Seminar Vienna, March 18, 2009 (http: //www. imf. org/external/np/speeches/2009/pdf/031809. pdf )
Now … governments are the problems Maastricht Treaty: - Budget deficit < 3% of GDP - Debt/GDP ratio < 60%
Bagian II Perekonomian Indonesia
Economic temperature cooler. . Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % Target BI: 5% + 1% percent 18. 4 14. 6 5. 0 200 3 Source: BPS. 4. 6 2004 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 201 9 0
Inflation remains high in the region August inflation, y. o. y Source: World Bnak, September 2009
BI Rate bertahan di 6. 5 persen Sampai akhir tahun berpotensi menuju 7% Source: Bank Indonesia.
Money market rates vs. BI rate
Anomali ….
Level of credits to GDP, 2009
Perbandingan sektor keuangan di Asia-pasifik
Belanja pemerintah masih seret Dana yang ditarik pemerintah (pajak, SUN, ORI, Sukuk) parkir dalam rekening pemerintah di BI. Belanja APBN yang tersendat (a. l. karena eskalasi biaya proyek) juga berdampak negatif terhadap likuiditas. Source: Diolah oleh Danareksa Research Institute.
Heart beat has been appreciating. . . (Rupiah per US$) Source: Bank Indonesia
Foreign reserves increased more than $7 bil. (US$ million) Source: Bank Indonesia.
Foreign ownership in bonds and SBIs Source: Bank Indonesia and Mo. F.
Balance of payments (US$ million) I. CURRENT ACCOUNT A. Goods, net (Trade Balance) 1. Exports, f. o. b. 2. Imports, f. o. b. 2008 2009 Q 1 -09 Q 2 -09 Q 3 -09 Q 4 -09 Q 1 -10 126 10, 746 2, 508 2, 480 2, 157 3, 602 1, 554 22, 916 35, 133 6, 884 8, 365 8, 488 11, 395 7, 930 119, 48 139, 606 0 24, 179 28, 130 31, 273 35, 899 34, 292 116, 690 84, 347 -17, 295 -19, 765 -22, 784 -24, 504 -26, 362 B. Services, net -12, 998 -14, 108 -2, 743 -3, 310 -3, 509 -4, 546 -3, 572 C. Income, net -15, 155 -15, 140 -2, 742 -3, 776 -4, 072 -4, 551 -3, 965 D. Current Transfers, net II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 5, 364 4, 861 1, 109 1, 201 1, 248 1, 303 -1, 832 3, 548 1, 593 -1, 822 2, 507 1, 270 4, 297 294 96 19 29 34 14 18 B. Financial Account -2, 126 3, 453 1, 574 -1, 851 2, 474 1, 255 4, 279 1. Direct investment 3, 419 1, 928 400 472 604 1, 939 1, 764 10, 336 1, 950 1, 893 2, 972 3, 521 6, 218 -7, 309 -8, 812 -829 -4, 144 -238 -1, 788 -146 394 A. Capital Account 2. Portfolio investment 3. Other investment Source: Bank Indonesia. III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS 453 1, 160 -970 -2, 869 -3, 877 -1, 118 -918 770
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey 4. 2 5. 4 5. 7 6. 4 6. 6 Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, % Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky” Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration Crisis peak SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction Pertumbuhan semester II sekitar 6. 5%, sehingga rata-rata tahun ini sekitar 6. 3% Source: BPS.
Low quality — Sectoral growth rate (2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %) 2008 2009 Q 309 Q 409 Q 1 -10 10 share Tradable 3. 4 2. 2 2. 9 4. 5 2. 4 52. 6 Agriculture 4. 8 4. 1 3. 3 4. 6 2. 9 16. 0 Mining & Quarrying 0. 5 4. 4 6. 2 5. 2 3. 5 11. 2 Manufacturing 3. 7 2. 1 1. 3 4. 2 3. 6 25. 4 Non-Tradable 8. 7 7. 1 5. 6 6. 4 9. 4 47. 4 10. 9 13. 8 14. 5 14. 0 7. 2 0. 8 Construction 7. 3 7. 1 7. 7 8. 0 7. 3 10. 0 Trade, Hotel & Rest. 7. 2 1. 1 -0. 2 4. 2 9. 3 13. 9 Transport & Comm. 16. 7 15. 5 16. 4 12. 2 11. 9 6. 2 Finance 8. 2 5. 0 4. 9 3. 8 5. 5 7. 2 Services 6. 4 4. 2 5. 7 4. 6 9. 3 Electricity, Gas & Water Source: BPS.
Low quality growth, 20002009* (%) Non-tradable GDP Tradable Source: BPS.
GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %) Description 2007 2008 2009 2010* Private consumption 5, 0 5, 3 4. 9 3. 9 Government consumption 3, 9 10, 4 15. 7 -8. 8 Fixed investment 9, 4 11, 7 3. 3 7. 9 Domestic demand 6, 0 7, 4 Exports 8, 5 9, 5 -9. 7 19. 6 Imports 9, 0 10, 0 -15. 0 22. 6 GDP 6, 3 6. 1 4. 5 5. 7 * First quarter Source: BPS. .
Foreign merchandise trade Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni 2009 (m-to-m) Growth Billion US$ Description 2007 2008(yoy) 2010* 2009 2008 2009 2010* 114. 1 137. 0 103. 1 60. 1 13. 1 20. 0 -15. 0 47. 7 Non-oil and gas 92. 0 107. 9 86. 6 48. 9 15. 5 17. 3 -9. 7 39. 9 Oil and gas 22. 1 16. 5 11. 2 4. 1 31. 7 -34. 7 95. 1 Total import 74. 5 129. 2 96. 8 51. 2 21. 9 41. 1 -25. 0 53. 3 Non-oil and gas 52. 5 98. 6 77. 9 40. 5 24. 8 42. 4 -21. 1 47. 3 Oil and gas 21. 9 30. 6 19. 0 10. 8 15. 5 38. 0 -37. 8 80. 8 Surplus (Deficit) 39. 6 7. 8 16. 5 8. 9 Non-oil and gas 39. 5 9. 3 16. 9 8. 4 0. 2 (1. 5) (0. 4) 0. 4 Total export Oil and gas * January-May Source: BPS. 2007 29. 1
Foreign merchandise trade: monthly
Composition of imports (%, Jan. May 2010)
Trade balance Indonesia-China (nonoil & gas) US$ million Exports Imports Trade Balance % of Total Exports Imports Rank Exports Imports *January-April Sources: BPS 2008 2009 2010* 7, 787 14, 948 -7, 161 7. 2 15. 2 4 1 8, 906 13, 497 -4, 591 9. 1 17. 3 3 1 5, 024 7, 134 -2, 110 10. 3 17. 6 3 1
Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals Visitors: 2008 = 6, 234, 497 2009 = 6, 323, 730 2010 (Jan-May) = 2, 767, 122 Growth: Dec 2009 (m-t-m) = 17. 63% Jan-Dec 2009 (y-o-y) = 1. 43% Jan-May 2010 (y-o-y) = 14. 6% 2008 Sources: BPS 2009 2010
Indeks tendensi konsumen Source: BPS.
Indeks tendensi bisnis Source: BPS.
Bagian III Peluang dan Tantangan Pemerintahan Baru
Red shirts make bloody protest MARCH 2010: Supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra hold canisters with human blood before pouring it outside the Government house in Bangkok. http: //www. stuff. co. nz/world/asia/3461303/Thai-protesters -pour-blood
Protestors burn churches in Malaysia January 2010 In God's name? A combustible mixture of race, religion and politics http: //www. economist. com/world/asia/displayst ory. cfm? story_id=15271154
Menuju keseimbangan politik baru? Ø Perubahan dalam koalisi yang disertai dengan perombakan kabinet. Ø “Disiplin” koalisi: sehingga akan lebih lugas antara partai-partai koalisi dan partai-partai oposisi. Ø Pengungkapan borok-borok masa lalu: positif untuk pembersihan?
Faktor-faktor pengerem Ø Para ketua umum partai punya agenda tersendiri untuk hadapi 2014. Ø Tarik-menarik di posisi-posisi strategis, termasuk di BUMN. Ø Kekompakan kabinet terganggu. Ø Kompromi-kompromi politik Ø Agenda populisme mengedepan. Ø Agak sulit mengharapkan perubahan
Bagian IV Prospek 2010 -14
Projections of GDP by several agencies No Agency Date 2010 2011 April 2009 5. 8 6. 2 1 Gov’t of Indonesia 2 Bank Indonesia March 2010 5. 7 3 World Bank March 2009 5. 6 6. 2 4 Economist April 2010 5. 6 5. 9 5 ADB April 2009 5. 5 6. 0 6 IMF April 2010 6. 2
Projections of GDP by expenditure Description Private consumption 2008* 2009* 2010** 5, 3 4. 9 4. 8 – 5. 3 Government consumption 10. 4 15. 7 9. 6 – 13. 2 Gross fixed capital formation 11. 7 3. 3 7. 1 – 8. 6 Exports of goods & services 9. 5 -9. 7 6. 4 – 7. 2 10. 0 -15. 0 8. 0 – 8. 8 6. 1 4. 5 5. 4 – 6. 5 Minus: Imports of goods & services Gross Domestic Product * Actual ** Projection Sources: BPS and LP 3 E Kadin Indonesia.
Projections of GDP by sector Sector 1. Agriculture 2. Mining 3. Manufacturing 4. Utilities 5. Construction 6. Trade and hospitality 7. Transport and communications 8. Finance 9. Services *Projection Sources: BPS and LP 3 E Kadin Indonesia. GROSS DOMESTIC 2008 4. 8 0. 5 3. 7 10. 9 7. 3 7. 2 16. 7 8. 2 6. 4 6. 1 2009 2010* 4. 1 3. 4 -3. 6 4. 4 1. 4 -3. 0 2. 1 3. 5 -5. 0 10. 713, 8 11. 2 7. 1 6. 6 -7. 5 1. 1 4. 6 -6. 5 15. 215. 5 16. 6 5. 0 6. 8 -6. 9 6. 4 -6. 5 4. 5 5. 4 -6. 5
Indonesia: selected economic indicators 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011* GDP gowth (y-o-y, %) Nominal GDP (current prices (Rp trillions) GDP per capita (current prices, US$) Open unemployment rate (%) Inflation rate (%, year end) BI rate (%, year end) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Currrency (Rp/US$, average) Current account balance (% of GDP) Reserves (US$ billions) S&P's Rating 6. 3 3, 951 1, 938 6. 1 4, 951 2, 270 4. 5 5, 613 2, 590 5. 4 - 6. 5 6, 225 2, 800 5. 8 - 6. 9 6, 866 3, 100 9. 8 8. 6 6. 6 8. 00 7. 0 5. 0 7. 00 -1. 6 30. 4 7. 5 2. 8 6. 50 -0. 1 32. 0 9, 163 2. 5 56. 9 BB- 7. 9 11. 2 9. 25 -1. 3 35. 1 4. 0 7. 50 -2. 0 29. 0 -1. 8 27. 0 9, 767 10, 350 9, 000 - 9, 250 8, 500 - 9, 000 0. 1 1. 9 1. 2 1. 0 52. 1 66. 1 75. 0 85. 0 BBBBBB BB+
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