INCREASING PUBLIC READINESS FOR DISASTERS RESEARCH FINDINGS & EVIDENCE-BASED RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PRACTICE Dennis S. Mileti, Ph. D. Professor Emeritus University of Colorado at Boulder Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
CONTRIBUTORS (alphabetical order) n Linda B. Bourque, Ph. D. – University of California at Los Angeles n Megumi Kano, Dr. P. H. – University of California at Los Angeles n Dennis S. Mileti, Ph. D. – University of Colorado at Boulder n Michele M. Wood, Ph. D. – California State University at Long Beach Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
PURPOSE n Describe the “Human Element”: – The character of human beings & – How to motivate them to get ready n Provide Practitioners With: – A “Tool Kit” for increasing public readiness based on scientific research findings n& Answer the Question…. . Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
HOW DO YOU HELP PEOPLE STOP…. LISTEN…. & GET READY…. Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
FOR DISASTERS n Most People Think: – Won’t really happen n And if They Do: – Happen to other people, not them Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
WHY DO PEOPLE THINK THAT WAY? n Most People Don’t “Perceive Risk”: – To high consequence low probability events n They “Perceive Personal Safety”: – From nature’s fury and other disaster types n They’re Right (most of the time) Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
TWO BASIC DEFINITIONS Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
WHAT IS READINESS? (clarifying the dependent variable) n Public Readiness: – Means different things to different people n. A Clear Definition is Important: – Frames the public actions want to influence n Public Readiness is More Than: – 72 hours of water, flashlight & batteries, canned food, & duct tape Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
7 PUBLIC READINESS ACTION CATEGORIES n 1. Learn How to Be Ready: § What to do before, during, & after an event to stay safe & more n 2. Plan What to Do: § Household disaster plan & more n 3. Train & Practice: § Learn first aid & more n 4. Organize Supplies & Equipment: § Stockpile enough of what you’ll need & more n 5. Secure Building Contents: § Attach heavy furniture to the walls & more n 6. Protect Building Structure: § Evaluate the safety of your home & more n 7. Safeguard Finances: § Buy insurance and have cash on hand & more Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS Safeguard Finances Protect Building Structure Cost Secure Building Contents Many of the things people can do to “get ready” are free! & People may already have some things in place. Organize Supplies & Equipment Train & Practice Plan What to Do Learn How to Be Ready Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
WHAT IS READINESS INFORMATION? (clarifying the independent variable) § Includes Different Things, e. g. , § § § Brochures, internet sites, television & radio spots School coloring books & grocery bag messages Museum displays & refrigerator magnets School, workplace, & neighborhood activities And It Can Be: § § One-shot information events or long-lived campaigns Different information from different organizations A coordinated campaign across organizations & more Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
THE RESEARCH BASIS Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS n On What Factors: – Motivate people to take action n 50+ Years Communication Research: – Different disaster types – From education to warnings n Many Research Publications in Print Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
ACCESS THE RESEARCH n 350 Page Annotated Bibliography (with findings summarized, 1 page per publication): http: //www. colorado. edu/hazards/publications/informer/ infrmr 2/pubhazbibann. pdf n Note: – One study = findings – Finding across all studies = knowledge Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
BIBLIOGRAPHY CONTENTS n Full Publication Reference: – Author, title, publication outlet n Summary Paragraph: – Event studied & research methods n Hypotheses Supported, e. g. , – “A” caused “B” but only when “C” was present Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
QUALITY RESEARCH CHARACTERISTICS n Note: All Research Isn’t Good Research n Good Research Uses: – Past research as its context (not just a poll) – Probability samples – Multivariate analysis (control for “X & Z” when examining effect of “A on B”) n Tests Determinants of Behavior: – Respondents don’t speculate “why” Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
QUALITY RESEARCH (cont’d) n Distinguishes Between: – What people “think” vs. “do” (they’re different) – Good measures of what’s being studied vs. self-reports: § Medical exam self-report: “On a scale of 1 to 5, how much cancer do you think you have? ” § Readiness self-report equivalent: “On a scale of 1 to 5, how prepared do you think you are? ” n Recommendations for Practice Based on: – Replicated findings across studies Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
SUMMARY OF RESEARCH FINDINGS Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
ABOUT THE FINDINGS n Research Record: – Many different conclusions n Lessons Learned Piecemeal: – Studies of small local populations – Findings synthesis possible, but clarity, consistency, & confidence could be higher n Lacked “Clear Evidence” for: – What’s most vs. least important Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
FINDINGS: PUBLIC READINESS CORRELATES n 1. Information Received: § # sources, # channels, frequency, telling them what to do, losses & consequences, consistency n 2. Information Observed: § Observable social & physical cues n 3. Statuses: § Income, education, occupation, age, race, gender, ethnicity, country of origin Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
RESEARCH FINDINGS (cont’d) n 4. Roles: § Partnership, family, children n 5. Experience: § Disasters experienced n 6. Information Belief: § Information received, source credibility n 7. Knowledge: § What to do, where to get more information Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
RESEARCH FINDINGS (cont’d) n 8. Perceived Risk: § Probability of occurrence, personalization n 9. Perceived Actions Effectiveness: § Link between actions to take & cutting losses n 10. Milling: § Talking it over with other, seeking more information Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
WHAT WAS MISSING n Clear Knowledge About: – What’s most important & what isn’t n How Factors Relate to Form: – “The process whereby information received is converted into public readiness actions” n In Other Words. ……. Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
WHAT MATTERS MOST & IN WHAT ORDER? PERCEPTION STATUS INFO RECEIVED RISK INFO BELIEF ACTION CUES ROLES KNOWLEDGE EXPERIENCE Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009 MILLING
BUT NOW WE KNOW n MEGA-STUDY Completed in 2008: – “Manhattan Project” for public readiness n Findings = “Impeccable” Evidence: – Clear, consistent, & replicated n Applications Ready: – Confident pathways to public readiness Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
MEGA-STUDY SAMPLE n Geographic Areas (N = 3, 300): – – n Rest of 48 states New York City Washington, D. C. Los Angeles N N = 2, 298 (69. 6%) = 390 (11. 8%) = 200 (6. 1%) = 412 (12. 5%) Racial/Ethnic Groups (N = 3, 300): – – – White Hispanic African American Asian/Pacific Islander Other N N N = 2, 312 (70. 1%) = 416 (12. 6%) = 314 (10. 4%) = 109 (3. 3%) = 119 (3. 6%) Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
MEGA-STUDY CORRELATIONS Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
WHAT THE CORRELATIONS SHOWED n The 2 Variable Correlations: – Virtually the same conclusions as everyone else who ever did this kind of research – Dozens of factors correlate (most of them weakly) with public readiness action-taking n What the Mega-study Did Next…. . Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
MEGA-STUDY MODELING n Goal: – Identify the KEY factors & processes that motivate the public to take readiness actions n Approach: – START: examine effects of all factors ever found to correlate with public action-taking – USE: analysis approach informed by theory – END: short list of “key factors” & how they relate to form human process Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009 29
MODELS CONSTRUCTED Knowledge Milling Demographics Experience Action Cues Information Perceived Effectiveness Perceived Risk Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
MODELS ESTIMATED Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
BREAKTHROUGH RESULTS n “Identical Results”(very rare) For: § ALL GROUPS: Hispanics, African Americans, Asian/Pacific Islanders, Anglos § ALL AREAS: New York City, Los Angeles, Washington, D. C. , the Nation § ALL HAZARDS: Terrorism & other reasons n “Strong”(as good as it gets) Findings: § High explained variance (41 -48%) in all models Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
THE KEY FACTORS THAT MOTIVATE READINESS CAN BE SUMMARIZED In 1 Slide…. . Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
TWO KEY FACTORS DRIVE PUBLIC ACTION n “RECEIVED” INFORMATION: – If it’s from multiple SOURCES – Over multiple communication CHANNELS – Is about WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE – Tells how those actions CUT LOSSES & – Is CONSISTENT across messages n “OBSERVED” INFORMATION: – f. CUES (seeing others take actions) Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
THESE TWO FACTORS DRIVE ACTION 2 WAYS n DIRECTLY: Information motivates action n INDIRECTLY: Information also motivates action by increasing 3 other factors that also motivate action: – Knowledge: What’s known about actions – Perceived Effectiveness: How they cut losses – Milling: Talking about & seeking more information about actions Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS Blue=direct effects Green=indirect effects KNOWLEDGE MILLING RECEIVED INFO ACTION OBSERVED INFO PERC’EDEFFECT Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
THE EQUATIONS n X 3 = B 31 X 1 + B 32 X 2 + e 3 n X 4 = B 41 X 1 + B 42 X 2 + e 4 n X 5 = B 51 X 1 + B 53 X 3 + e 5 n X 6 = B 61 X 1 + B 62 X 2 + B 63 X 3 + B 64 X 4 + B 63 X 5 +e 6 Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
THE INFORMATION TO ACTION RELATIONSHIP n Can Be Used to Increase Readiness: – Since public information is “pliable” & can be shaped by policies & programs n And the Relationship is Linear: – More information = more public actions – Less information = less public actions Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
OTHER THINGS JUST DON’T MATTER MUCH n Some Other Factors Aren’t: – Statistically significantly related to readiness n Some Other Factors Are, But Either: – Their effects aren’t real & go away when other things are controlled, or – Their effects have so little predictive value that they should be ignored Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
SOME EXAMPLES n Perceived Risk (no relationships): – Fell out of all predictive models: § All locations & sub-populations – Perceiving “increased probabilities” for events doesn’t increase public readiness actions n Demographics (little predictive value): – Don’t really predict “public motivation” much (but can impact affordability) Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
AN EVIDENCE-BASED “TOOL KIT” FOR GROWING PUBLIC READINESS (10 Steps) Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
THE GENERAL PRINCIPLE n Information is the KEY Factor that Motivates the Public to Get Ready: – Works everywhere for everyone (in U. S. ) § Mainstream Americans & minorities § Across the country & in different cities – The Information Imperative: richer fields of information (received & seen) yield public readiness action-taking – Here are the 10 steps…. . Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
STEP 1: USE EVIDENCE BASED APPROACHES n All Public Education & Information Campaigns Are Not Equal: – More could be accomplished if we redesign & distribute public readiness information that…. – “Uses research-based evidence about how to make it effective” Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
STEP 2: STOP DOING THINGS THAT DON’T WORK n Don’t Try to “Motivate” the Public with Increased Probabilities: – People need to be aware of unknown hazards – & increased probabilities may be useful for many other things but…. – “Increasing perceived risk does not motivate or predict PUBLIC readiness action-taking” Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
STEP 3: USE MULTIPLE INFORMATION SOURCES n Provide Information from as Many Different Sources as Possible: – “Regardless of who you are, you alone can’t provide very effective public information” – You need partners to be “really” effective: § The more partners = the more sources § The more sources = the more the public does Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
STEP 4: BRAND THE MESSAGE n It’s About Them Not You : – “Brand the message, not the messenger” n Convince Groups (including your own) To Stop Providing Unique Messages: – Work with other information providers so everyone tells the public the same thing – “Branded readiness messages work best” Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
STEP 5: USE MULTIPLE INFORMATION CHANNELS n Distribute the Same Information Over Many & Diverse Channels: – “People do more when they get the same information different ways” Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS GROCERY BAGS SIGNS & PLACARDS SCHOOL COLORING BOOKS MAILED BROCHURE INTERNET PUBLIC TV ADVERTISEMENTS CABLE TV NEWSPAPERS RADIO BUMPER STICKERS FAST FOOD PLACEMATS
STEP 6: COMMUNICATE OVER THE “LONG-HAUL” n Its Better to Communicate: – Over time & not just for a day or week – “People do more after receiving the same message many times” n And its Best if Communication is: – “Sustained over extended periods of time and even better if its ongoing & doesn’t end” – Direct mailed brochure in midst of the stream Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
STEP 7: FOCUS PROVIDED INFORMATION ON ACTIONS n The Most Effective Thing to Say to Motivate Them to Get Ready is: n “WHAT TO DO TO GET READY” n “And where to find more about HOW to do it” n For example…. . Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
“WHAT TO DO” BROCHURE Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
STEP 8: EXPLAIN CONSEQUENCE REDUCTION n Tell Them How Readiness Actions Reduce Losses: n “People are more likely to take readiness actions if information explains how those actions can cut their losses if something happens” Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
STEP 9: POSITION “CUES” FOR PEOPLE TO SEE (The Big Ticket Item) n Get Public Readiness Out of the Closet and Into the Streets: n People are more likely to take actions they see others doing n “Monkey see, monkey do applies” Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
STEP 10: TARGET TALKING n Encourage People to Talk about Getting Ready with Each Other: – People are more likely to do something if they think doing it is their own idea: § Comes from talking about it with others – “Use innovative ways to get people talking about readiness actions among themselves” – Here’s an example……… Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
“LET’S TALK ABOUT OUR FAULTS” (So. Cal EQ Alliance) Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
LAST: EVALUATE n Measure Your Starting Place: § Get a “baseline” of public readiness n Measure Changes: § Is public readiness changing over time n Evaluate Program Effectiveness: § Which information components work/don’t work n Fine Tune: § Revise information provided based on findings Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
SURVEYS CAN DO THAT INTERVIEWER: DATE: RESPONDENT ID: INTERVIEW START TIME: ______ AM / PM HOUSEHOLD READINESS SURVEY INTRODUCTION Hello, I’m … calling from the University of California. We are interviewing people to find out what they think should be done to prepare for emergencies and disasters in their community. This information may help us improve responses to emergencies like Hurricane Katrina and other disasters. As a thank you, participants will receive a $20 gift certificate. I need to ask just a few questions to see if you are eligible to participate. S 1 A. Have I reached you at your home phone? YES SKIP TO S 1 D 1 NOASK S 1 B 2 S 1 B. Is this a residence? YES ASK S 1 E 1 NOTERMINATE, DIAL AGAIN 2 For this survey, I have to speak with someone who lives there who is 18 years old or older. Are you 18 or over? YES SKIP TO S 1 F NOASK S 1 E 1 2 NO ONE IN HH IS 18 OR OLDER, TERMINATE Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009 3
THE STEPS SUMMARIZED (Conclusions from the Scientific Evidence) n Many Sources+Channels: – Partnerships – Someone in charge n Same Message/Branding n Government Over Time/Long-Haul – Repetitive messaging – Direct mailed brochure ORCHESTRA LEADER n Business Actions to Take Plus: – How actions cut losses Ngo’s – Encourage talking n Visible Action-taking Cues n Evaluate & Revise Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
SUMMARY OF SUMMARY “Sell It Like they Sell Coca-Cola” Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
POST SCRIPT 1 n Everything Doesn’t Have to Say Everything: – Refer them to other places to find out more – Seeking additional information (or milling) on their own increases the odds that they’ll take action Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
POST SCRIPT 2 n Remove Wrong Information: – Not just about putting in “good” information – Also about taking out “bad” information – They don’t know they believe myths, they what they believe is true Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
POST SCRIPT 3 n Issues Remain for Low Resource People: – The same “motivation” process applies – But the level of readiness they can afford is constrained: § Point out “no cost” actions to take § Work with NGOs to fill the readiness gap Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
POST SCRIPT 4 n Demographics Don’t Really Impact the Motivation Process n But Demographics May Be Important for Other Reasons, e. g. , – Selecting the mix of communication channels – And more Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
POST SCRIPT 5 n We Didn’t Cover Everything n We Covered: – PROCESS to “motivate” public readiness n We Didn’t Cover Information: – CONTENT (exactly what to say): § Some are generic, others are hazard-specific – STYLE (how it’s presented): § Format, order, colors, wording & more Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
QUESTIONS? dennis. mileti@colorado. edu 303 -520 -3400 Dennis S. Mileti - May 2009
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