INCA-CE A Central European Initiative for Severe

INCA-CE ─ A Central European Initiative for Severe Weather Warnings and Improved Communication Strategies on a trans-national Level Alexander Kann Ingo Meirold-Mautner Benedikt Bica Yong Wang INCA Central Europe Integrated nowcasting for the Central European area 39 th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology Conference on Weather Warnings and Communication Oklahoma City, OK, 22 -24 June 2011 This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Outline § The Central Europe (CE) Programme, co-financed by the ERDF (European Regional Development Fund) § INCA-CE: Integrated Nowcasting for the Central European area - Partnership - Objectives § The INCA system Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis § INCA Applications § Recent research on INCA Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

The Central Europe Programme © JTS, www. central 2013. eu 8 EU countries 1 third country Surface: Around 1. 050. 000 km² Population: Around 148 million citizens 7 (and more) languages 4 Programme Priorities: § § Innovation Accessibility Environment Competitiveness and attractiveness of cities and regions Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

INCA-CE: Some benchmarks • 16 partners from 8 CE countries • Weather services • Research institutions • National and local authorities • Project budget: 3. 3 million € (4. 7 million US$) • 80% of overall budget is covered by EU • Project duration: Apr 2010 – Sep 2013 • http: //www. inca-ce. eu Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Objectives § Reducing impact of weather-related natural disasters (e. g. windstorms, flooding, icing) by establishing a warn-on-forecast system. § Improvement of risk management standards and methodology in order to enable management authorities to issue more detailed assessments and warnings. § More precise estimation of weather-related risks and potential hazards in the private sector. § Improvement in the accuracy and timeliness of severe weather warnings. Operational hydrology Output A web-based, trans-national weather information system using a state-of-the-art nowcasting method Crisis management und risk prevention INCA Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Civil protection Road management

The INCA Nowcasting system § Automated analyses and very-short range forecasts (first 12 hours) at very high resolution (1 km) - Operational flash flood forecasting and warning - Additional forecasting tool in weather warnings - Automated forecasts for road maintenance, power generation, … Standard domain Region: Eastern Alps Domain size: 600 x 350 km Elevation range: 100 - 4000 m Resolution: horizontal: 1 km, vertical: 125 - 200 m, time: 15 min - 1 h Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

The INCA Nowcasting system Météo France, Toulouse ECMWF, Reading ARPEGE global model ECMWF global model NWP OBS RADAR Observations ALADIN limited area model INCA System → Analyses → Nowcasts → Forecasts Radar data TOPO High resolution topographic data Satellite data SAT Products, Warnings, Applications. . . Hydrological Services Hydrological Forecasting System Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

INCA Variables 2 -D Analyses und Forecasts • Precipitation type • Cloudiness • Global radiation 3 -D Analyses und Forecasts • Temperature • Humidity • Wind 2 -D Convective Analyses Fields • CAPE • CIN • LCL • LFC • Instability Indices (LI, Showalter, . . ) • Trigger-Temperature-Deficit • Equivalent Potential Temperature • Moisture convergence • Mass convergence Other derived 2 -D Fields • Snowfall line • Icing potential • Wind chill Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Some sample INCA fields T ff, dd MOCON ϴe Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

INCA Application in Austria Automatic warnings for civil protection and for the general public Severe weather warnings Gust monitor Lake Neusiedl http: //www. interchalet. com Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

INCA precipitation analysis 20090723 § Station measurements are interpolated onto INCA grid by inverse distance weighting § Radar field is scaled with climatology and latest surface observations § Combination of these two fields in order to reproduce station measurements and keep structures of radar field in-between § The better the radar view, the more weight its structures receive, and vice versa § Consideration of elevation effects during interpolation Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Recent research on INCA Parameterization of elevation effects Dependence on intensity Mountain precipitation Constant amplification factor Valley precipitation Problem: unreasonably high values for strong precipitation events Valley precipitation Problem: unreasonably low values for strong precipitation events Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Parameterization of elevation effects Mountain precipitation Improved dependence on intensity additive Limited by condensation rate multiplicative Limited by droplet growth Valley precipitation Corresponds to the physics of orographic precipitation (seeder-feeder) process Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Haiden and Pistotnik, 2009

Effects of elevation dependence in INCA Elevation dependence No elevation dependence Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Comparison of modeled and observed runoffs No elevation dependence used Elevation dependence MAE reduction: - 61. 5 % Red bold line: Median of simulation errors at all gauges Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Verification INCA Temperature Error reduction due to improved downscaling Error reduction due to station observations INCA (dashed lines) and ALADIN (solid lines) mean absolute forecast errors (MAE) of temperature, averaged over all stations, for July 2009 (grey) and January 2010 (black). Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Verification INCA Precipitation MAE Winter 2008/2009 MAE Summer 2009 Error reduction due to Nowcasting Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

http: //www. inca-ce. eu Haiden, T. , A. Kann, C. Wittmann, G. Pistotnik, B. Bica and C. Gruber, 2011: The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) System and Its Validation over the Eastern Alpine Region. Weather and Forecasting, 26/2, pp. 166 -183. 10 th EMS / 8 th ECAC 13 – 17 Sept, Zürich, Switzerland Thank you for your attention ! Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics