Implications for Agriculture Energy and Automotive The

Implications for Agriculture, Energy, and Automotive

The Bio-fuels Boom Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 2

Value Proposition GLOBAL INSIGHT Independent, reliable analysis Providing an Integrated Perspective § Agriculture, Transportation, and Energy perspectives combined – from Field to Wheels. Identifying the Issues & Answering the Questions in Context § Long-standing expertise in competing and complementary businesses § Based on an economic analysis platform Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 3

Three Major Policy Drivers… …Are They Compatible? Energy § Energy security § Reduce dependency on petroleum-based energy sources § Diversify energy sources Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Environment Agriculture § Reduce criteria § Create new markets for emissions at local, agricultural crops urban, metro, and § Reduce subsidies national levels § Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 4

Strategic Questions Addressed in The Bio-fuels Boom • What are the global drivers of bio-fuels consumption? • What role do the major economic powers play in bio-fuels growth? (U. S. , NAFTA, EU-25, Asia, Latin America, Africa) • What is the range of long-term policy objectives? § How will they vary from country to country and at the regional and local levels? § How will policy influence the creation of a commercially viable bio-fuels industry? Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 5

Strategic Questions Addressed in The Bio-fuels Boom • How is the bio-fuels infrastructure evolving internationally? • What is the current state of technology and how will it develop? • What is the tipping point, where bio-fuels will impact the energy, agriculture and automotive markets? • What are the expectations and limits to growth in the bio-fuels industry? Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 6

Ethanol Production Capacity: Growing Rapidly Source: F. O. Licht Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 7

A Scenario-based Approach • The global bio-fuels industry will unfold based on the evolution of several key factors: § Government mandates and support § Production and process technology in the agricultural, automotive, and energy industries § Cost evolution § International trade issues § Distribution and infrastructure § Global oil prices • Alternative scenarios of future supplies and prices are a core element of the study Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 8

Proposed Scenarios Market Re-managed: Supply Growth Keeps Pace with Demand Cornucopia: Significant Supply Surplus, Price Drops Supply constrained: Production Does Not Meet Demand Global Insight will also build scenarios with the charter subscribers to the study. Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 9

Bio-fuels Growth Ranges from 5 -to-25% by Scenario Total Global Petroleum Supply (%) 30% 25% 20% 15% Global Insight Petroleum Scenarios Supply Constrained Market Re-managed 10% Cornucopia 5% 0% 2005 2008 Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 10

Study Coverage FUEL TYPES BIO-ETHANOL BIO-DIESEL NEXT GENERATION BIO-FUELS FEEDSTOCKS CORN SUGAR BEETS SWITCH GRASS & WOOD CHIPS (NEXT GENERATION FUELS) SUGAR CANE SOYBEANS CROP RESIDUES (NEXT GENERATION FUELS) WHEAT & BARLEY RAPESEED, JATROPHA OIL & PALM OIL (BIO-DIESEL) OTHER NONCONVENTIONAL SOURCES (E. G. , ALGAE, FARM & MUNICIPAL WASTES) (Study does not include alternative fuels such as LPG, LNG, CNG, hydrogen, gas-to- liquids, or coal-to-liquids) Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 11

Final Report: Proposed Table of Contents • Executive Summary • Description of Scenarios § Key components of scenarios § Major uncertainties § Summary of scenario stories § Signposts • Major Government Bio-fuels Programs and Policies § Incentives, targets, restraints • U. S. • Asia (by major country) • Europe (by country) • Latin America • Africa • Bio-fuels Consumption Forecasts § By bio-fuel type § By scenario § By major consumption country § Trade flows § To year 2030 • Bio-fuels Production Forecasts § By bio-fuel type § By scenario § By major production country/region • Automotive Sector Response § Technology § Strategies of each of 10 major OEMs § Component sourcing • Agricultural Sector Response § Strategies for the Agricultural Sector § Marketing § Major stakeholder responses • Energy Sector Response § Markets for bio-fuels in energy sector § Strategies for the Energy Sector § Marketing § Major stakeholder responses • Conclusions and Recommendations • Appendices § Detailed data tables provided electronically Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 12

Bio-fuels and the Automotive Industry Bio-fuels Automotive Technology Strategies for the 10 Major OEMs • How are the on-vehicle systems impacted by each fuel? (e. g. , Product Offerings Marketing • Which Vehicles? • What Fuels? • Are alternative fuels a strategic initiative? • …OR a “must do” to be competitive? Corporate Positioning Component Sourcing • Wrap itself in green? • Take the role of a responsible corporate citizen? • View alternative fuels as an extension of product lines necessary to remain competitive? • In-house technology development or outsource the expertise? • In-house or outsource component production? storage, delivery, energy management) • What technical solutions are needed and at what cost? Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 13

Bio-fuels and the Agricultural Industry Bio-fuels Production Technologies Strategies for the Agricultural Sector • Major Feedstock Technologies • Government policies for use of agricultural surpluses • Land use management for food and energy production • Current and future subsidization programs • Competition with food production and prices § Grain fermentation advancements § Cellulosic ethanol • Production Cost Estimates • Energy and Carbon Balances Marketing Stakeholder Response • What is the potential market for crops to produce bio-fuels? • Large agricultural companies • Farm co-ops • Emerging bio-fuels companies • Transportation – pipelines, trucks, ports • Investors (by country & by U. S. state) • How will this affect the agricultural industry? Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 14

Bio-fuels and the Energy Industry Bio-fuels Markets in the Strategies for the Energy Sector • Fuel for electric power generation • Substitute for distillates and home heating oil • Blending agents for gasoline and diesel pool • Government energy security policies • Government environmental policies • Product quality regulations • Taxes and import/export tariffs • Targets and mandates Marketing Stakeholder Response • What is the potential market for bio-fuels? • Large integrated energy companies • Refiners • Pipelines and retailers • New business entities • Investors (by country/region and within the U. S. by region) Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 15

Who Should Participate? Investors Policy & Government Agri-Business Bio-fuels Industry Automotive Transportation Energy Equipment Manufacturer Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 16

Study Timetable Kick-off Meeting: October 2006 Monthly Bio-fuels Webcast: December 2006 Final Report: The Bio-fuels Boom February 2007 Final Client Presentation: Early 2007 Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 17

Deliverables Kick-off Meeting: NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE, ASIA Interim Webcasts: SCENARIO REVIEW IMPLICATIONS FOR ENERGY, AGRICULTURE, & TRANSPORTATION SECTORS Results Presentation: NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE, ASIA On-site: Final Report: OPTIONAL, ON-SITE PRESENTATION OF STUDY RESULTS ANALYSIS & RESULTS; WEB-BASED DATA ACCESS Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 18

Project Team Kevin Lindemer Refining Sector & Alternative Energy Economics Phil Gott Automotive Technology Stewart Ramsey Agricultural Economics Juliette Kerr Latin American Bio-fuels Industry Policy & Analysis Sarah Kingsbury Automotive Sector Dick Buttigeig Automotive Sector Mary Novak Energy Policy & Modeling Margaret Rhodes Energy Policy & Modeling Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 19

Previous Studies in Bio-fuels by Global Insight 1. Study of the Global Bio-fuels Market to Identify Business Opportunities – 2006 2. U. S Federal Highway Administration: Forecasting Revenues from Highway Trust Fund 3. Global Bio-fuels – The Next Step Towards Environmentally Neutral Transportation? 4. National Railroad – Prospects for U. S. Ethanol Production 5. The Potential for Increased Market Share for Alternative Fuels 6. Winners and Losers of Ethanol Mandates 7. Identification and Assessment of Alternative Fuels Market Drivers Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 20

For Further Information www. globalinsight. com/energy Gil Rodgers Senior Director, Energy Group tel: 781. 301. 9142 em: gil. rodgers@globalinsight. com