
95f6f81ae87846da100bd6b17166b1e3.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 52
Immigration and the U. S. Economy Where do we go from here? The Houston Economics Club October 18, 2007 Pia Orrenius, Ph. D. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Disclaimer: the views expressed herein are those of the presenter; they do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
Overview • Immigration and – Population, labor force growth – Cyclical, regional effects – U. S. workers – Taxpayers – Policy
U. S. immigration, population, and labor force growth
The foreign-born population is larger than ever before Source: Census Bureau
And foreign-born share of population headed toward historic peak Source: Census Bureau
Three out of ten foreign-born are undocumented Source: Pew Hispanic Center (2005)
Illegal inflows rival legal Source: Jeffrey Passel and Roberto Suro, Pew Hispanic Center (2005)
Increasingly bimodal education distribution of foreign-born workers Percent Source: Ottaviano & Peri, 2005
Foreign-born share of employment growth by selected jobs Percent 2003 -2006 Source: BLS
Share of workers who are undocumented by occupation Percent Overall share 4. 9 Source: Pew Hispanic Center (2005)
Projected foreign-born contribution to labor force growth significant as baby boomers retire Source: PEW Hispanic Center
Foreign-born share of labor force growth by census division
U. S. immigration, the business cycle and regional growth
Immigrants work more Labor Force Participation: Men Percent Source: Pew Hispanic Center (2005)
Correction: male immigrants work more Labor Force Participation: Women Percent Source: Pew Hispanic Center (2005)
Unemployment rate of foreign-born, native-born very similar Source: BLS
Immigrants are mobile, responsive to economic growth • More likely come in good times, leave in bad times – Flexibility allows for faster economic growth, more efficient use of resources – Lower unemployment • Some immigrant groups are even more mobile once here – Move to where the jobs are • Fewer regional discrepancies in growth – Lower unemployment, regional convergence
Skilled flows pro-cyclical H 1 -B petitions approved for initial employment Peak Post-recession Source: Department of Homeland Security
“Real-time” immigration pro-cyclical Apprehensions along southwest border Source: DHS
Apprehensions fall as demand in construction weakens Source: DHS; BLS
Among less-educated, undocumented immigrants more mobile than natives Percent Source: Bean et al, 2007
Among Mexican immigrants, illegals more mobile than legals Percent Source: Bean et al, 2007
Among Chinese immigrants, illegals more mobile than legals Percent Source: Bean et al, 2007
U. S. immigration and the effect on natives
Effects of immigration on natives • Immigration has effects similar to trade – Greater specialization, efficiency – More choice, innovation – GDP rises, GDP per capita rises • Who benefits? – Immigrants • Bulk of GDP increase goes to them • Natives get $30 to $60 billion – Consumers • Prices of certain goods and services fall – Capitalists (investors, producers, homeowners)
Effects of immigration on natives • Who loses? – Wage effects • Low-skilled native workers • Prior immigrants – Fiscal effects • Taxpayers
Wages of less-skilled workers in long-run stagnation Real median weekly earnings by education level High school diploma, no college Source: BLS
Wages of less-skilled workers in long-run stagnation Real median weekly earnings by education level High school diploma, no college Source: BLS
Wage Effects of Immigration • Models with large adverse effects (Borjas 2003) – Assume perfect substitutability, no change in K – 3% drop in native earnings on average – 9% drop for natives who are low-skilled • Other models (Ottaviano & Peri 2006) – Allow imperfect substitutability, change in K
Native-born labor force change, by education Source: 1996 -2006; BLS, Haver Analytics Thousands
Native and foreign-born labor force change, by education Source: 1996 -2006; BLS, Haver Analytics Thousands
Wage Effects of Immigration • Models with large adverse effects (Borjas 2003) – Assume perfect substitutability, no change in K – 3% drop in native earnings on average – 9% drop for natives who are low-skilled • Other models (Ottaviano & Peri 2006) – Allow imperfect substitutability, change in K – 2% rise in native earnings on average – 1% drop for low-skilled natives – Big declines for prior immigrants
Fiscal impact of immigration • Fiscal impact – Tax contributions minus transfer payments and cost of public services received – Net present value • Tax contributions include – Payroll, income, sales, property taxes • Majority of illegal immigrants have payroll taxes withheld • Public transfers and services include – Education, health care, welfare (EITC, TANF), police and fire • Estimates – Gold standard: National Research Council (1997) – Recent work: Robert Rector’s piece for Heritage • Household-level analysis
NRC: Immigrants have positive fiscal impact when including their descendants 1996 Dollars, NPV Source: National Research Council, The New Americans (1997) Level of Education
NRC: But immigrants have a negative fiscal impact in their lifetime 1996 Dollars, NPV Source: National Research Council, The New Americans (1997)
Immigrant households rely more on public assistance Percent Household participation in public assistance programs Source: Center for Immigration Studies, March 2005 Current Population Survey
U. S. immigration policy
Walls on the Southern border are not new…
Where do we go from here? • More enforcement – No-match program, Real ID Act, worksite raids – Local, state law enforcement cooperation w feds
Worksite enforcement jumps in ‘ 06, ‘ 07 Source: DHS
Where do we go from here? • More enforcement – No-match program, Real ID Act, worksite raids – Local, state law enforcement cooperation w feds • Less chance of reform – Issues need to be addressed • H-2 B, H-1 B visas, green card quotas outdated, insufficient • Existing illegal immigrants, inflows – Piecemeal reform? • Ag Jobs • DREAM Act
No-match letter program: new safe harbor guidelines could have big impact • SSA sends no-match letters to employers with workers whose SS numbers don’t match their names • Under new rules, employers have to fire workers with unresolved no-matches within 90 days • If caught, employers assumed to have ‘constructive knowledge’ and may face stiff penalties – Massive interior enforcement policy, could impact millions of workers if enforced – Currently under preliminary injunction in U. S. District Court • If implemented, no-match could substantially grow the shadow economy
Shadow economy small in U. S. Percent of GDP Source: Schneider (2000)
…partly due to relatively low tax burden Percent of GDP Source: Schneider (2000) Cumulative tax rate %
Conclusion • Foreign-born important role in economic growth • Benefits of immigration extensive • Labor market impacts limited; fiscal impact sizable • More enforcement without reform will grow the shadow economy; worsen fiscal effects
Where undocumented immigrants live Source: Pew Hispanic Center (2005)
Share undocumented immigrant workers by industry Percent Overall Proportion 4. 9 Priv. House holds Food mfg. Ag. Source: Pew Hispanic Center (2005) Furniture mfg. Const. Textiles Food Svcs. Admin Hotels Other mfg. & Support
Foreign-born share of employment by sector Source: BLS (2006)
Job-based green cards remain in short supply Source: Department of Homeland Security, Department of State
Fiscal and wage impact of immigration: Take-Aways • Fiscal impact depends on education level and time horizon – High school graduates or below impose net costs – Almost all costs are made up for by descendants • Wage impact is among prior immigrants, less so natives – Market-driven selection of immigrants is key • Complement native labor – Flexibility is important in allowing K, L to adjust • Mitigates adverse effects
By JOEL MILLMAN September 18, 2006