ICT Trends Prof Yrjö Neuvo September 28 th

"The future is here, it's just not widely distributed yet. “ - William Gibson

Global trends in ICT 4 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Technologies That Have Evolved in a Positively Surprising Way • IEEE Spectrum asked 40 leading industry experts what technologies have developed in positively surprising way. • The list of 40 experts included: • Intel CEO Craig R. Barret • Cisco CEO John T. Chambers • Siemens CEO Heinrich von Pierer • President, Fujitsu Laboratories, Kazuo Murano • Several researchers from leading universities (MIT, UC Berkeley) Source: IEEE Spectrum Nov 2004 5 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Evolution of the Computer Mainframe Personal Laptop 1960 s 6 Mini 1970 s 1980

Evolution of the Computer All of my connected applications, always with me 7 ©

Social Computing Mainframe Time Sharing No Sharing Just Sharing Automation Personal Productivity Simple Group Productivity Firms Markets Commons Augmentation vs. Automation Homebrew vs. Microsoft Open Source vs. Microsoft Number Crunching 8 Personal Computing Documents Interconnectedness © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt Social Computing

Future of Computing is Wireless and Portable Source: IDC 9 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609.

Mobile and broadband growing Subscriptions 3 000 globally, 2 800 millions 2 600 Mobile Fixed voice Broadband 2 400 2 200 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 © 2006 Nokia 2 billion in 09/2005 Current mobile penetration 34 % -92 -93 -94 -95 -96 -97 -98 -99 Source: Nokia at 3 GSM Cannes, February 2005 10 3 billion by 2008 YN_CEMA_060609. ppt -00 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -08 e

Fixed broadband by-passing PSTN Percentage of households Finland 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -76 -81 -85 -90 Mobile phone penetration -94 -95 -96 -97 -98 Fixed voice line penetration -99 -00 -01 Broadband penetration -02 -03 -04 -05 Sources: Tilastokeskus: Kotitaloustiedustelut, Kulutustutkimus, Kuluttajabarometri, Tiedolla tietoyhteiskuntaan. By 2010 world will witness first country without fixed line voice service Candidates: Finland, Austria, Portugal 11 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Adoption of technologies Time to reach 50 M penetration 40 years 30 20 10

NGP Hype Chart 12/05 Mobile Broadcast TV Likely time to reach plateau 2006 -2007 -2008 -2009 - Ajax Mash-ups / Web 2. 0 FMC / Vo. WLAN / UMA / IMS /Mobile SIP Visibility Mobile Linux Blogs MVNOs NFC Vo. IP ”Long Tail” Handset Sensors LBS RS S Wi. Max 3. 9 / 4 G Mobile music Mobile search Technology Trigger Peak of inflated expectations Wireless email Enterprise mobile apps Trough of disillusionment MATURITY 17 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt Slope of enlightment Plateau of productivity

Embedded computer systems 18 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Number Of Chips Source: Fischer “Embedded Computing”, Elsevier 2005 19 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609.

Level of dependency Embedded systems: • <90% future innovations • <40% price Electronic Injections Check Control Speed Control Central Locking … 1970 20 © 2006 Nokia Electronic Gear Control Electronic Air Condition ASC Anti Slip Control ABS Telephone Seat Heating Control Autom. Mirror Dimming … 1980 YN_CEMA_060609. ppt Navigation System CD-Changer ACC Adaptive Cruise Control Airbags DSC Dynamic Stability Control Adaptive Gear Control Xenon Light BMW Assist RDS/TMC Speech Recognition Emergency Call … 1990 ACC Stop&Go BFD ALC KSG 42 voltage Internet Portal GPRS, UMTS Telematics Online Services Blue. Tooth Car Office Local Hazard Warning Integrated Safety System Steer/Brake-By-Wire I-Drive Lane Keeping Assist. Personalization Software Update Force Feedback Pedal … 2000 source: BMW Embedded systems: Intelligence and electronics in car industry

Evolution of Handsets and Technology 21 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Convergence, communication and business innovation 22 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Different views on device convergence Game console meets internet browser Phone meets music Phone

Example on video, uncompromised video quality Sanyo Xacti 174 grams 24 © 2006 Nokia

Device convergence and connectivity • Digitalization is a fundamental enabler of convergence • People want their devices to work together and share content WLAN Internet PC Broadband Home electronics 25 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Radical service innovation • In addition to p-2 -p voice calls, new services surface

Pushing service innovation boundaries 27 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Personalization brings a scent of luxury 28 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Collaboration 29 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Not Only Device or Service, but Business Ecosystem Technological capability Service offering Price Business

The Artemis Technology Platform Mirror Group Participating in the Mirror Group: European Commission (chair), Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep. , Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovak Rep. , Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, 17 countries in total Steering Board of industry, academia, institutes, ITEA, MEDEA+, High-Tech SME Federation PARADE S 31 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Concluding remarks 32 © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt

Conclusions: • Enablers • • Convergence Internet Digitalization Connectivity • Opportunities • • Ease of use Cost savings Energy savings Busines system innovation • Challenges • • • 33 Modularity Interoperability Software engineering Dependability Robustness © 2006 Nokia YN_CEMA_060609. ppt