ICP Progress Report Western Asia Region ICP Regional

ICP Progress Report Western Asia Region ICP Regional Coordinators Workshop March 7 -11, 2005 World Bank, Washington D. C.

Main Issues 1. Data Collection 4. Training 2. Status of consumption groups 5. Management Issues 3. Expected Comparability 6. Time Table

Data Collection Seven countries already started the price collection for Food & Beverages and Clothing & Footwear; Financial resources are needed for three countries to start and for another two countries to continue; One country needs governmental support to form the team and to start; Iraq joined the program in January 2005 and data collection will cover five cities only.

Countries started data collection Country Bahrain Egypt Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Start of data collection February January Frequencies Q X X X M X X NO OFFICIAL INFORMATION W X X X

Countries not started data collection Country Readiness Data Collection F&B start C&F Jordan Ready, but waiting for funds M&W Q April Lebanon Training of data collectors is underway to select the successful M&W candidates Q April UAE Just a plan on paper Q, M Q April ? Yemen Ready, but waiting for funds Q, M Q April Syria Started data collection, but need funds Q, M Q Started? Saudi A. Started data collection Q, M Q Started?

Survey Magnitude and Inclusiveness COUNTRY REGIONS OUTLETS PROD STAFF FRQ Readiness& needs Bahrain 5 70 632 3 Q C/ TA Jordan 12 1209 420 4 M A / funds/ Kuwait 6 100! 621 7 Q B/ TA Oman 6 157 618 24 M A/ Qatar 3 110 502 12 Q B/TA Syria 60 2469 430 53 M C/ TA UAE 8 1200 595 23 M D/ just on monitoring paper

Status of Consumption Groups Food &Beverages and Clothing& Footwear Finalized in English and Arabic, Regional and uploaded on Tool Pack. list However, improvements to the RL is needed. Data Started in 7 ESCWA countries collection

Status of Consumption Groups Furniture & Utilities Regional list Despite the delayed responds on Provisional list, the are weak and lacking comparability; Received PSs are under examination to adopt a shorter and easier new Provisional List; Then helping the countries in selecting an adequate number of representative and comparable products for each basic heading. Data collection Biannual (2 nd and 4 th quarters)

Status of Consumption Groups Transport & Communication Regional list Provisional list sent to countries; Responses are underway; Analysis of responses in progress. Recommended PSs will be sent to countries for their consideration to adopt the final list. Data collection Biannual (2 nd and 4 th quarters)

Status of Consumption Groups Recreation & Culture Regional list Provisional list sent to countries; Country responses are expected before the end of March; Recommended PSs added by Regional Team, asking countries to select them if available in the market. Data collection Biannual (2 nd and 4 th quarters)

Status of Consumption Groups Restaurants & Goods Regional list Regional SPDs sent to countries; Responses is expected before the end of March; Provisional List is expected by mid April. Data collection Biannual (2 nd and 4 th quarters)

How comparable would be the results? At the expenditure group level; At the expenditure sub-group level; At the basic heading level; At a single product level; For the whole region; For country groups in the region; and Bilaterally (each country with other countries in the region)

Training Workshops; Tool Pack; Data Collection.

Third Workshop on ICP October 2004, Beirut Objectives: Discuss countries’ experiences, survey plans and readiness for the price survey; Enhance the statistical capacity of participants in the areas of expenditure weights, pricing, and survey framework & procedures; Provide training to price statisticians and/or survey supervisors on Tool Pack.

Third Workshop on ICP October 2004, Beirut Participants: 9 National Coordinators; 22 National Statisticians; 2 consultants; ICP Deputy Global Manager; and ICP Team of Western Asia.

Training on ICP Tool Pack October 2004, Beirut 22 statisticians and 3 national coordinators received 2 days training on the ICP Tool-Pack (the Arabic version). The Food & Clothing product list was uploaded on 20 PCs and the participants were trained to design the survey framework and how to export and import files between PAM and PCM. 2 PCs, with TP installed and F&C list uploaded, have been supplied to each country to complete their work immediately after the workshop.

Training on Data Collection This training lies under the countries responsibility. The national statisticians who participated in regional workshops and received TP training are acting as trainers of data collectors and supervise their work. However, this process should be closely monitored. some national coordinators and/or supervisors still not aware of all constraints that characterize the ICP price survey. Data collectors in most countries will be hired for this project specifically and they did not receive proper education (they hold a high school certificate at most). Regular data collectors at statistical offices could be another source of probable data distortion since they stick to what they have used to do with CPI.

Management Issues Targets: 1. Follow up data collection; 2. Ensure quality results; 3. Enhance the conceptual understanding; 4. Maintain perfect relations and team spirit.

Management Issues Actions: 1. Frequent visits to the survey field taken by the Regional Office for random check; 2. Better assessment to expected products comparability before approving final lists; 3. Continuous training to data collectors, supervisors, statisticians and every regional and national team members; 4. More conceptual documents and materials; 5. Adequate advocacy.

Management Issues Requirements: 1. More training: workshops, seminars and EGMs; 2. Hiring the services of specialized consultants; 3. Recruiting qualified statisticians/economists with regional and national teams; 4. Recruiting qualified data collectors; 5. Producing and disseminating necessary guidelines and instructions; 6. Better media promotion; and 7. MONEY, GRANTS, FUNDRAISING…. . what so ever?

2005 ICP TIME-TABLE 2006 Q Q Q 1 2 3 4 1 2 Monitoring Price Surveys in member countries: Country visits Check preliminary data Provide field training in member countries Produce and distribute guidance notes on problematic areas

2005 ICP TIME-TABLE 2006 Q Q Q 1 2 3 4 1 2 Providing Technical Assistance on ICP Software: Tool Pack & ICPSPD: Country visits Arranging one more seminar (two days workshop) Through e-mail correspondence and tel-conferences

2005 ICP TIME-TABLE Finalization and Translation of the ist of Products of the Remaining Groups: 2006 Q Q Q 1 2 3 4 1 2 Preparing and distributing word glossaries Preparing picture catalogues Preparing final lists of product in Arabic

2005 ICP TIME-TABLE 2006 Q Q Q 1 2 3 4 1 2 Regional Data Processing and PPP Aggregation: Data verification Data processing PPP calculations

2005 ICP TIME-TABLE 2006 Q Q Q 1 2 3 4 1 2 Meetings and Workshops: Executive Board meetings Regional Coordinators meetings Ring Countries meetings

2005 ICP TIME-TABLE Q 1 2006 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Evaluation of preliminary national results obtained from the first quarter Training on the construction of BH weights, Tool Pack and HHDs Evaluation of final national results Evaluation of final regional results National Coordinators Meetings: Training on the pricing of other nonconsumption groups

2005 ICP TIME-TABLE Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 2006 Q 4 Q 1 Reporting and Advocacy: Q 2 Progress Reports Draft and Final Reports of final results Updating the ICP home page on ESCWA web site Transmission of final results to the ICP Global Office and National Coordinators Preparing and disseminating relevant Leaf-paper