ICES PICES Strategic Initiative Section on Climate Change effects on

ICES/PICES Strategic Initiative/Section on Climate Change effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME/S-CCME) S-CCME Meeting PICES Annual Meeting October 13, 2013 Co-chairs: Anne Hollowed, Suam Kim (PICES), Manuel Barange, Brian Mac. Kenzie (ICES)

Agenda – SICCME Open Session (2013 Annual Meeting) • Welcome, introductions, opening remarks • Changes to, adoption of, agenda and appointment of rapporteur • Review of S-CCME and what we want to achieve • Recent activities 1. Yeosu 2012 – Publication - ICES JMS Special Issue 70(5) (Kim) 2. 2013 PICES/ICES Intersessional workshop (King) 3. S-CCME contributions to IPCC AR 5 – (Kim) 4. 2013 ICES Theme Session B, Reykjavik, Iceland (Cheung) 5. 2013 ICES Theme Session M, Reykjavik, Iceland (Di Lorenzo) 6. 2013 PICES W 2, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada (Di Lorenzo) • Forthcoming S-CCME activities *Brazil 2015 3 rd International Symposium on Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans (King) * 2014 FUTURE OSM Theme session and Workshops (ICES and PICES) (Kim) * 2014 Theme session proposals (ICES and PICES) (Kim) 2

Agenda – SICCME Open Session (2013 Annual Meeting) • Forward Planning 1. Progress report relative to Implementation Plan (King) 2. S-CCME related research programs – ICES update (King) 3. BEST-BSIERP (Bering Sea Ecosystem Study, Jeff Napp) 4. GOA-IERP (Gulf of Alaska Study, Jeff Napp) 5. IMBER (Franz Mueter) 6. ESSAS meeting January 2013 7. 6 th China-Japan-Korea IMBER Symposium on Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics and Integrated 8. Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (3 -4 October 2013, Tokyo, Japan) 9. IMBER Open Science Meeting (23 -27 June 2014, Bergen, Norway) Other New Programs 3

SICCME Vision ICES and PICES will become the leading intl. organisation providing science and advice related to the effects of climate change and variability on marine resources and ecosystems. 4

SICCME and P/ICES Working Groups SICCME builds on work done in various WG and SG of ICES and PICES, and can stimulate work done in these Groups. e. g. , WGs on -oceanic hydrography -integrated physical-biological modelling -integrated ecosystem assessments -fish stock assessments and forecasts -species – specific groups (fish, zooplankton, benthos, …) -etc. 5

Goals 1. Define, coordinate and integrate the research activities needed to understand, assess and project climate change impacts on marine ecosystems with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to plan strategies for sustaining the delivery of ecosystem goods and services, and when possible predictions should include quantifying estimations of uncertainty. 2. To build global ocean prediction frameworks, through international collaborations and research, building on ICES and PICES monitoring programs. 3. Define and quantify the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to climate change, including the cumulative impacts and synergetic effects of climate and marine resource use. 6

Objectives § 1. Advancing the scientific capacity on the three main challenges identified above by engaging the PICES and ICES scientific community in focused workshops, theme/topic sessions and symposia that target key uncertainties and technical barriers that impact the predictive skill of ocean models used to project the impacts of climate change. § 2. Effectively communicating this capacity to clients, Member Countries, stakeholders and the broader scientific community. § 3. Facilitating an international effort to design data collection networks at the spatial and temporal scales needed to monitor, assess and project climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. § 4. Facilitating international collaboration to design and implement comparative analysis of marine ecosystem responses to climate change through modelling and coordinated process studies. 7

SICCME Activities 8

SICCME Contributions to Intl. Climate Impact Assessments 9

Time Plan of Activities 2012 -2020 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 10

Time Plan of Activities Synthesis of existing knowledge Advancing science & methodology Comm. & integration of science via intl. symp. Training progr. for capacity building & knowledge sharing Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 11

Agenda Item 2: Report on Recent SICCME Activities 2. 1 WKSICCME-Spatial workshop, St. Petersburg, Russia, May 23 -25, 2013. - Jackie 2. 2 SICCME contributions to IPCC AR 5 – Suam 2. 3 ICES ASC Theme Sessions 2013 - Suam 12

What Has SICCME Done in 2013? 13

What Has SICCME Done in 2013? 14

Workshop on Global Assessment of the Implications of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Fish and Fisheries (1) Hollowed 1, Peck 2, Kim 1 Anne Myron Suam May 22 nd to 24 th 2013, St. Petersburg, Russia (2)

6 (Interactive) Sessions 1 -2 keynotes→Breakout group questions→Plenary Summary 1) Analytical methods for detecting changes in spatial distribution 2) Skill Assessment and model intercomparison 3) Quantifying uncertainty 4) Design specification for database of observations of distribution of living marine resources 5) Risk Assessment 6) Communicating outcomes to inform decisions regarding management of living marine resources under changing climate 11 keynote speakers 18 breakout group leaders

Session 1: Analytical methods for detecting changes in spatial distribution William Cheung: Projecting climate change effects on the distribution of global fish stocks Franz Mueter: Quantifying spatial variability in species distributions: The roles of density, temperature and advection low density 6 Discussion Questions e. g. , “Can observed shifts be attributed to climate variability and / or climate change? Is it possible to disentangle the effect of fishing… ? ”

Session 2: Skill Assessment and model inter-comparison Miranda Jones: Applying a multi-model approach to predicting species' distributions Shin-ichi Ito: How to model fish migration and distribution under future climate? Discussion Questions e. g. , “Identify regions where more than one projection modeling approach has been conducted. How different were the projections and why? ”

Session 3: Quantifying uncertainty Tatiana Pavlova: Climate simulations and projections over Russia and the adjacent seas: a CMIP 5 update Grégoire Certain: Trying to measure what we don’t know: Examples in ecology and management 6 Discussion Questions e. g. , “How should key uncertainties be incorporated into projections? ”

Session 4: Design specification for database of observations of distribution of living marine resources William Sydeman: Database considerations for global meta-analyses of climatic impacts on distribution: the NCEASMar. Clim experience 7 Discussion Questions e. g. , “Do methods exist to allow integration and synthesis of different types of data (e. g. , trawl, longline and acoustic)? ”

Session 5: Risk Assessment Cassandra de Young: Vulnerability assessments in fisheries and aquaculture socioecological systems. Gretta Pecl: Approaches for assessing species vulnerability to climate change in an ocean warming hotspot 5 Discussion Questions e. g. , “What are the advantages and disadvantages of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment? ”

Session 6: Communicating outcomes to inform decisions regarding management of living marine resources under changing climate John Pinnegar: Answering the “so what” question: communicating with policy makers, members of the public and the media Motomitsu Takahashi: Approaches for identifying ecosystem responses to human activities and natural stressors 5 Discussion Questions “What form of information is needed for decision making? (e. g. , decision tables, risk analyses, verbal models… )”

Outcomes… • Key recommendations were produced in each of the six sessions • Report available at ICES and at PICES websites • Work dovetails well with this year‘s ASC theme sessions (B…) • Manuscripts from this workshop and from theme session B will compose a special volume in the ICES Journal of Marine Science • SICCME moving forward with inter-comparisons (among models within same system and among ecosystems across globe)

IPCC Linkages Some IPCC chapter authors are active members of the ICES and PICES community. Working Group I Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: Jim Overland (USA) Working Group II Chapter 5: Coastal Systems and Low Lying Areas Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France) Chapter 6: Ocean Systems Hans-O. Pörtner (Germany) William Cheung (Canada) Chapter 7: Food Production Systems and Food Security Kevren Cochrane (South Africa) Chapter 28 Polar Regions: Anne Hollowed (USA) Chapter 30 Oceans: Sukgeun Jung (Korea) and Svein Sundby (Norway) Working Group III Chapter 5 Jake Rice (Canada)

Goal to produce scientific literature relevant to IPCC working groups – Stimulated research through theme sessions, topic session and intersessional workshops. Many resulted in peer reviewed papers. – ICES J. Mar. Sci. Special Volumes • • Contributions from SICCME Theme Session prominent in special volume of 2 nd ICES/PICES/IOC Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans, Volume 70 Issue 5 September 2013 Sendai Meeting: Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries: Forecasting Impacts, Assessing Ecosystem Responses, and Evaluating Management Strategies Volume 68 Issue 6 July 2011

ICES ASC Theme Sessions 2013 B. Responses of living marine resources to climate change and variability: learning from the past and projecting the future (co-sponsored by PICES). Convenors William W. L. Cheung, Canada, PICES, Myron A. Peck, Germany, Vincent Saba, USA D. Physico–chemical aspects of ocean acidification in the ICES area. Convenors: David J. Hydes, UK; Jon Olafsson, Iceland; Alberto Vieria Borges, Belgium L. Hydrographic processes, circulation, and water mass formation in the polar and subpolar basins. Convenors: Stephen Dye, UK, Hedinn Valdimarsson, Iceland, Igor Yashayaev, Canada M. Identifying mechanisms linking physical climate and ecosystem change: Observed indices, hypothesized processes, and "data dreams" for the future (cosponsored by PICES). Convenors: Emanuele Di Lorenzo, COVE-AP; USA, PICES; Arthur J. Miller, USA, PICES; Marc Hufnagl, Germany, ICES N. The pelagic fish complexes in the North Atlantic Ocean: Distribution, productivity, and inter-specific competition during changing climate. Convenors: Asta Gudmundsdottir, Iceland; David Miller, the Netherlands; Geir Huse, Norway 26

Agenda Item 3: Forthcoming SICCME Activities 3. 1 Workshops in PICES 2013 Annual Meeting 3. 2 Third Intl. Symposium on Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans, Santos, Brazil, March 23 -27, 2015. 3. 3 Theme sessions/Workshops at PICES FUTURE 2014 Open Science Meeting. 3. 4 Presentation of new SICCME-related research programs (2013 and 2014). 27

Workshops in PICES Annual Meeting 2013 (co-sponsored by ICES) Workshop (W 1). Comparison of size-based and species based ecosystem models. Co-sponsored by ICES. Co-Convenors: Jeffrey Polovina (USA), Anne Hollowed (USA), Shin-ichi Ito (Japan) , Myron Peck (Germany) Workshop (W 2). Identifying mechanisms linking physical climate and ecosystem change: Observed indices, hypothesized processes, and "data dreams" for the future. Co-sponsored by ICES. Co-Convenors: Jack Barth (USA), Emanuele Di Lorenzo (USA), Marc Hufnagl (Germany), Jacquelynne King (Canada), Arthur Miller (USA), Shoshiro Minobe (Japan), Ryan Rykaczewski (USA) , Kazuaki Tadokoro (Japan) 28

Convenors: Luis Valdes (IOC) Manuel Barange (ICES) Jacquelynne King (PICES) Alex Turra (U San Paulo) Scientific Steering Committee: John Gunn (Australia) Yunne-Jai Shin (S. Africa) Nicholas Bates (Bermuda) Maria de. Fatima. Borges (Portugal) Silvana Birchenough (UK) Brian Mac. Kenzie (Demmark) Shoshiro Minobe (Japan) Angelica Pena (Canada) Fangli Qiao (China) Call for Session and Workshop Themes

Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans 3 rd International Symposium March 23 -27, 2015 Santos, Brazil bring together experts from different disciplines to exchange observations, results, models and ideas on the impacts of climate change on the world’s oceans two previous symposia each attracted over 400 scientists from over 45 countries, making the effort truly global in scale combine paper Sessions and Workshops to provide a forum for topics on a globalscale and with regional comparisons

Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans Session and Workshop proposals by Sept 18, 2013: sea level rise, changes in thermo-haline ocean circulation, acidification, oligotrophy of temperate seas, changes in species abundance, distribution and phenology, loss of biodiversity PICES’ members of Scientific Steering Committee: Angelica Peña (angelica. pena@dfo-mpo. gc. ca) Shoshiro Minobe (minobe@mail. sci. hokudai. ac. jp) Fangli Qiao (qiaofl@fio. org. cn)

Session and Workshop Proposals from ICES 1. Present evidence of climate change in marine ecosystems 2. Global and Regional projections of Climate Change impacts 3. Long term chemical changes: Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia 4. Climate Change impacts on human societies: vulnerability and adaptation strategies 5. 13. Climate change impacts on re-organisation and re-location of food webs 14. Climate change in the seasonal domain: impacts on the phenology of marine ecosystems and their consequences 15. Marine biodiversity Climate Change and food security 16. Role of subsurface ocean 6. Long-term observation and monitoring networks of CC 17. Regional impacts of climate change 7. Long-term assessments to understand climate driven changes and variability in marine ecosystems: new techniques, drawbacks and future applications 18. Physiological impacts of climate change 19. Model inter comparisons across regions 20. Mitigation 21. Risk assessment of adaptation options 22. Predictive skills 23. Economics of climate change 24. Earth Systems Model tools in preparation for AR 6 8. Physico-chemical effects of Ocean acidification 9. Linking Climate Change to Marine Management Objectives 10. Taking a long-term view: the use of historical data to understand the impact of climate change on marine fish, fisheries, and ecosystems 11. Consequences of Ocean acidification for commercial fish and shellfish species (to be considered as a Workshop) 12. Public understanding of climate change impacts: from science to policy

Agenda item 3. 3 Presentation of new SICCME-related research programs that started in 2013 or will start in 2014 33

<5 m <3 m Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas <1 m Lecture 4. Climate change and the Manuel Barange, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK integrated coastal system. Wednesday m. barange@pml. ac. uk; www. espadelta. net 25 July 2007

UKMO Regional Climate Projections FVCOM Delta Model ERSEM-POLCOMS Shelf Model Bioclimate Envelope Model (Cheung et al. ) Size-based metabolic Model (Jennings et al 2008) + Sampling for spp. , catch, weight, price, sales @ 3 ports (commercial, artisanal, Inland-based) Long-term scenarios of catch potential based on targeted, MSY, PA, overexploitation management targets Manuel Barange, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK m. barange@pml. ac. uk; www. espadelta. net

Changes in marine climatic and oceanographic conditions in the waters between the Faroes and Greenland, and their effects on plankton and fish A research programme (2013 -2016) in collaboration between Danish, Faroese and Greenlandic research institutes. Funded by the Danish government

North Pacific Research Board, Gulf of Alaska Integrated Research Program http: //goaierp. nprb. org/

Agenda Item 4: Forward Planning How do past and present activities contribute to SICCME Goals and Objectives? -program has only recently begun -but can make a preliminary evaluation of which goals and objectives have received most activity so far… 38

Goals 1. Define, coordinate and integrate the research activities needed to understand, assess and project climate change impacts on marine ecosystems with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to plan strategies for sustaining the delivery of ecosystem goods and services, and when possible predictions should include quantifying estimations of uncertainty. 2. To build global ocean prediction frameworks, through international collaborations and research, building on ICES and PICES monitoring programs. 3. Define and quantify the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to climate change, including the cumulative impacts and synergetic effects of climate and marine resource use. 39

Objectives § 1. Advancing the scientific capacity on the three main challenges identified above by engaging the PICES and ICES scientific community in focused workshops, theme/topic sessions and symposia that target key uncertainties and technical barriers that impact the predictive skill of ocean models used to project the impacts of climate change. § 2. Effectively communicating this capacity to clients, Member Countries, stakeholders and the broader scientific community. § 3. Facilitating an international effort to design data collection networks at the spatial and temporal scales needed to monitor, assess and project climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. § 4. Facilitating international collaboration to design and implement comparative analysis of marine ecosystem responses to climate change through modelling and coordinated process studies. 40

SICCME 2013 Activities towards Goals and Objectives -an initial evaluation… 41

SICCME 2013 Activities towards Goals and Objectives Gaps are evident. Need more activities, for example, to… -link proposed research activities to strategies for sustainable delivery of ecosystem goods and services and biodiversity preservation -building global prediction networks -address how predictive skill of ocean models can be improved for projecting climate change impacts. -communicate results to clients and stakeholders, and develop new ways of doing so -conduct comparative analyses in an international collaboration 42

Agenda Item 4: Forward Planning Planned theme/topic sessions and workshops in 2014: Physical and biological consequences of exchanges between the Atlantic Subarctic and the Arctic; ICES ASC, Spain, 2014. Conveners: Olafur S. Astthorsson (Iceland), Ken Drinkwater (Norway), and ? ? ? (Canada). Strategies for ecosystem management in a changing climate. PICES FUTURE Open Science meeting, April 15 -18, Hawaii. Co-conveners: Manuel Barange, A. Hollowed, Suam Kim Climate change and ecosystem-based management of living marine resources: Appraising and Advancing key modelling tools, PICES FUTURE Open Science meeting, April 15 -18, Hawaii. Co-conveners: M. Peck (S-CCME, ICES), A. Hollowed (S-CCME, PICES), T. Essington (University of Washington) 43

Agenda Item 4: Forward Planning Recent Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems. PICES 2014 Annual Science Meeting, Korea. Convenors: Anne B. Hollowed (USA), Jake Rice (Canada), Sukgeun Jung (Korea), Hans Pörtner (Germany) Dynamics of pelagic fish in the North Pacific under climate change; PICES 2014 Annual Science Meeting, Korea, 11 or 12 October. Convenors Gerard Di. Nardo (ISC), Suam Kim (PICES), and Sei-Ichi Saitoh (PICES) 44

Any other suggestions? 45

Have a Good Annual Meeting 2013! 46

Extra Slides after here… 47

SICCME Membership Alexander Bychkov Anne B. Hollowed (co-chair) Brian R. Mac. Kenzie (co-chair) Cisco Werner Franz J. Mueter Guimei Liu Harald Loeng Helen Joseph Hyunsoo Rho Jacquelynne R. King Jason Holt Jeffrey J. Polovina Jonathan A. Hare Jürgen Alheit Keith Brander Ken F. Drinkwater Manuel Barange (co-chair) Michael G. Foreman Motomitsu Takahashi Myron Peck Shin-ichi Ito Suam Kim (co-chair) Sukgeun Jung Sukyung Kang Svein Sundby Vivian Piil Xiujuan Shan Xuelei Zhang Yury I. Zuenko 48