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IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

Outline • 1998 Nuclear Tests • Background of Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programs • Outline • 1998 Nuclear Tests • Background of Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programs • Political Context

http: //www. cnn. com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/13/india. cia. update/india. test. site. lg. jpg http: //www. cnn. com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/13/india. cia. update/india. test. site. lg. jpg

Site of Indian Nuclear Tests in Thar Desert http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/south_asia/469185. stm Site of Indian Nuclear Tests in Thar Desert http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/south_asia/469185. stm

Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia • Indian nuclear tests: May 11 and 13, 1998 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia • Indian nuclear tests: May 11 and 13, 1998 • Diplomatic efforts to stop Pakistani tests • Pakistan nuclear tests: May 28 & 30, 1998 • Immediate economic sanctions on both India and Pakistan

http: //www. cnn. com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/30/pakistan. nuclear. test. jpg http: //www. cnn. com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/30/pakistan. nuclear. test. jpg

Site of Pakistani Nuclear Tests at Koh Kambaran mountain http: //www. isis-online. org/publications/southasia/paktestsitephotos/panel_testmtn. JPG Site of Pakistani Nuclear Tests at Koh Kambaran mountain http: //www. isis-online. org/publications/southasia/paktestsitephotos/panel_testmtn. JPG

Indian Background • Tension with China • 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion” (PNE) • Today: Indian Background • Tension with China • 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion” (PNE) • Today: ~80 -100 nuclear weapons • Goal: regional stability

Pakistani Background • Nuclear weapons capability by 1989 -1990 • Today: ~90 -110 nuclear Pakistani Background • Nuclear weapons capability by 1989 -1990 • Today: ~90 -110 nuclear weapons • Goals: overcoming conventional inferiority, keeping regional balance of power

New Pakistani Reactor Construction (2011) <www. washingtonpost. com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2011/02/10/PH 2011021002770. html> New Pakistani Reactor Construction (2011)

http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/south_asia/1732430. stm http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/south_asia/1732430. stm

Delivery Systems • Strategic missile systems • Fighter plane option http: //news. bbc. co. Delivery Systems • Strategic missile systems • Fighter plane option http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/south_asia/1732430. stm

Political Context: India • CIA surprise • US inaction • Motives: --Matching China --Hindu Political Context: India • CIA surprise • US inaction • Motives: --Matching China --Hindu nationalism, political needs --Maintaining advantage over Pakistan

Political Context: India (cont. ) • Desire for international respect • Resentment of NPT Political Context: India (cont. ) • Desire for international respect • Resentment of NPT • Initial euphoria, then increasing protests

Anti-Nuclear Protests in India http: //www. cnn. com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/16/india. protests/ Anti-Nuclear Protests in India http: //www. cnn. com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/16/india. protests/

Political Context: Pakistan • No real alternative? • Need to satisfy nationalist demands: “We Political Context: Pakistan • No real alternative? • Need to satisfy nationalist demands: “We have settled the score” • Oct 1999 coup PM Nawaz Sharif and Gen. Pervez Musharraf http: //www. bbc. co. uk/urdu/news/021021_pmln_siqqid_ua. shtml

Nuclear Hopes and Fears • Pakistan Army: better able to negotiate with India? • Nuclear Hopes and Fears • Pakistan Army: better able to negotiate with India? • Fears of radical Islamic elements within Pakistan Army • Fear of nukes falling into terrorist hands

Conclusions? • Greater stability? • Impact of proliferation in South Asia is still unclear Conclusions? • Greater stability? • Impact of proliferation in South Asia is still unclear