I ve Got the Bombs to Make You Blow

I’ve Got the Bombs to Make You Blow: Studying Modern Terrorism Michael Burch November 11, 2010

Let’s Reflect on this Decade 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 ◦ US Cole Attack ◦ 9/11 ◦ Afghanistan ◦ Bali ◦ Iraq ◦ Madrid ◦ London ◦ Bhutto Assassination ◦ Mumbai Hotel Attacks

Outline for Today Defining Modern Terrorism Where do Terrorists Come From? ◦ Motivations ◦ Location Exploring Contemporary Case Studies ◦ IRA, Tamil Tigers & Al-Qaeda Strategies of Terrorism Responses to Terrorism

What is Terrorism? No agreed upon definition ◦ ◦ ◦ Use of Violence Public Act and Use of Fear Motivation for Attack Identity of Target Identity of Attacker Planned with a Clear Purpose Gain Supporters and Coerce Opponents

Who are terrorists? Where do they come from? ◦ Weak States are not a good base because there is uncertainty and instability ◦ Piazza (2008) argues that weak and failed states not only attract terrorists but provide a fertile recruiting ground for transnational terror What are their backgrounds? ◦ Tend to be well-educated ◦ Live in regions with high unemployment

Motivations Religious Grievances ◦ “Derelict Arabic terrorists in the air arrogant apparent to punish people by their heritage…your God is with you…Cause if you right and, know you right, then where's your righteous ways? ” -Gorillaz featuring D 12 Economic Grievances ◦ “How many no money boyz are rowdy? How many start a war? ”-M. I. A. Political Grievances ◦ “I’m out for presidents to represent me. ”- Nas

Case Study: The Irish Republican Army Founded: 1922 Finances ◦ Crime ◦ Diaspora Methods ◦ Car Bombs ◦ Assassinations Motivations ◦ United Ireland free of British influence

IRA Significant Events The “Troubles” Fractionalization Take the fight to Britain 1982 Hyde Park Bombing Good Friday Accords

Case Study: The Tamil Tigers Founded: 1976 Finances ◦ Diaspora Operations ◦ Suicide Terrorism ◦ Assassination Motivation ◦ Independent homeland for Tamil population

Tamil Tigers Significant Events Suicide attacks begin in the 1980 s Assassinate former PM of India Role of Diaspora May 17, 2009 ◦ Admit Defeat

Case Study: Al-Qaeda Founded: 1980 s Finances ◦ Bin Laden Fortune ◦ Islamic Charities Methods ◦ “Defensive Jihad” Motivations ◦ Reduce US presence in Middle East ◦ Capture Jerusalem ◦ Replace Apostate Rulers

Wild as the Taliban: Al-Qaeda Events Fought the Soviets in the 1980 s Wanted to fight Saddam in 1990 Turned to attacking US/Saudi Arabia 1998 Embassy Bombings

Underlying Strategies of Terrorists Attrition ◦ Terrorists seek to persuade target they are strong enough to impose great costs Intimidation ◦ Directed towards population to convince them government cannot protect Provocation ◦ Get government to respond indiscriminately to attacks

Underlying Strategies Part II Spoiling ◦ Moderates representing terrorist concerns are weak Outbidding ◦ Convince public that terrorist group has greater resolve than rival groups

Counterterrorism Responses to Terrorism Strategies Attrition ◦ Concede inessential issues ◦ Targeted retaliation Intimidation ◦ “clear and hold” strategies ◦ Strengthening law enforcement responses

Responding to Strategies II Provocation ◦ Discriminatory Response: Invest in Intelligence Spoiling ◦ Build trust and reduce vulnerability Outbidding ◦ Reward strategies of non-violent groups

Antiterrorism: The Long Term Target Hardening Enhanced Security ◦ US Patriot Act Other Defensive Measures ◦ Used for attrition campaigns, like the Wall in Israel Lyall(2010) ◦ Co-ethnic sweeps

Winning the War on Terror? Pape’s Dying to Win (2005) ◦ “Understanding that suicide terrorism is mainly a response to foreign occupation rather than the product of Islamic fundamentalism has important implications for how the United States and its allies should conduct the war on terrorism. ” Defeating Current Generation ◦ Military and Concessions do not work Preventing Next Generation ◦ Pull out of the Middle East

Are Terrorists Really Strategic? (Abrahms 2008) Do not achieve their goals Do not attack as a last resort They reflexively reject compromises Possess protean political platforms Generally carry out anonymous attacks Routinely attack each other They resist disbanding even when it becomes clear they wont achieve their goal

Should We Be Worried? Terrorist attacks have decreased Intensity has Increased Attacks have shifted from the West to Middle East & South Asia Attempted Yemen attacks have been thwarted Be Happy!

Representations of Terrorism Film ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ The Dark Knight Paradise Now The Kingdom Munich War of the Worlds Inglourious Basterds Taxi to the Darkside Books Articles Databases TV ◦ 24 ◦ Battlestar Galactica ◦ PBS’s Frontline Music ◦ Immortal Technique ◦ M. I. A. Popular Culture ◦ Robert Pape. Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism ◦ Steven Coll. Ghost Wars ◦ Andrew Kydd and Barbara Walter, “The Strategies of Terrorism. ” ◦ Jason Lyall. “Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents? ◦ Max Abrahms. “What Terrorists Really Want. ” ◦ START: http: //www. start. umd. edu/start /data/#gtd Academia