Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and Related Research

Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and Related Research & Development Recommendations Presented by Richard Wagoner National Center for Atmospheric Research National Hurricane Conference Washington, DC 9 April, 2001

Winter Road Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) Prototype Development Presented by Bill Mahoney National Center for Atmospheric Research

MDSS Objective To utilize state-of-the-art atmospheric science and engineering approaches to address and improve the performance of the road maintenance practitioner.

MDSS Goals • Capitalize on existing road weather data sources. • Augment data sources where they are weak. • Fuse data to make an integrated and understandable presentation of road conditions. • Provide diagnostic and prognostic information.

MDSS Goals (continued) • Provide display capability for the condition of the roadway. • Develop a decision support tool that provides recommendations on road maintenance courses of action together with anticipated consequences of action or inaction. • Provide all the above on a single platform.

MDSS Prototype Components DOT Operations Data Weather Data Advanced Weather Capabilities Display Road Condition Module Decision Support Logic External System Interface

MDSS Prototype Focus Areas Weather Component Focus : • Event start and stop times • Surface temperature • Precipitation type • Precipitation rate • Precipitation accumulation • Conditional probabilities • Surface wind speed • Surface wind direction • Surface visibility

MDSS Prototype Focus Areas Road Component Focus: • Pavement temperature and trends • Pavement chemical concentration • Pavement friction coefficient • Pavement contamination (liquid, snow, ice, etc. ) • Snow drifting

MDSS Prototype Focus Areas Decision Support System Component Focus: • Monitor weather & road conditions • Monitor probability & intensity of weather threat • Crew scheduling • Manage crew shifts • Dispatch crews to treat roadway • Coordinate emergency management • Manage incidents • Monitor crew working time • Post event clean up

Proposed Engineering Approach for MDSS Point & Time Specific Output DICAST Forecast Module A Forecast Module B “NOAA” Weather Data Ingest Forecast Module C Post Processor Forecast Module D. . . DOT Wx Data Forecast Integrator Forecast Module N Weather Parameter Output Forecast Product GIS Display DOT Operations Data Road Condition Module Decision Support System Module

Conceptual System Diagram for MDSS Point & Time Specific Output Weather Data DICAST Forecast Module A Forecast Integrator Forecast Module B Data Ingest Forecast Module C Post Processor Forecast Module D. . . Forecast Module N Forecast Product GIS Display Chemical Concentration

Environmental Prediction Sites Environmental prediction parameters will be generated along the road. These data will be used by the road condition algorithms.

Translation of Environmental Data to Road Condition Information Environmental Data Grids Road condition algorithms convert environmental data at road points Road condition information provided at user configurable locations along the road.

Special Features of the MDSS • Takes advantage of standard & road weather sensor data via intelligent data integration. • Utilizes an automated, high resolution forecast system with advanced data fusion techniques. • Provides probability (confidence) information for environmental parameters.

Special Features of the MDSS • Has the capability of utilizing several road condition algorithms to provide a “best” solution. • Merges environmental & operational data within the DSS. • Provides decision guidance in decision space and provides recommended courses of action and allows users to evaluate other courses of action.

MDSS Technology Applications Warning Preparation Winter Maintenance Emergency Management MDSS Core Technology Paving Operations Pavement Marking Traffic Management Public Notification Hurricane Evacuation Weed Spraying Sweeping Operations Controlled Burns

Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS Hurricane Evacuation Subsystem • Focused on 24 – 48 hr period prior to gale force winds on the coast • Updated every six hours in phase with NHC advisories • Uses weather, incident, maintenance and traffic modeling data to show decision makers estimated evacuation rates and problem areas • Between update times, “what if” scenarios can be run to estimate impact of track and intensity changes

Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem • Focused on weather and road conditions as gale force winds, heavy rain, lightning and tornadoes move inland • Continuous monitor mode with updates every 5 – 15 minutes • Maximum wind, accumulated rainfall, rainfall rate, and lightning rate displayed for key locations designated by emergency managers

Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem • System will be used for timing post-storm responses to ensure safety of crews • Storm location and past track displayed • Future storm locations with estimatedwind and rainfall forecasts displayed for every 3 hrs out to 12 hours • Road condition information constantly updated

Recommended Research & Development Areas • Application of new data fusion techniques to TPC operations to improve 1 – 5 day track and intensity forecasts • Optimal methods for utilizing weather information in traffic models • Validation of DSS’s in operational settings

The End wagoner@ucar. edu 303 -497 -8404