Human-made crises Giovanni Marizza gianni marizza yahoo it 20

Human-made crises: Giovanni Marizza gianni. marizza@yahoo. it 20 May 2014, 15. 00 – 19. 00

A particular case of Crisis Management: convincing public opinions through “CASUS BELLI” (an invented, fake, false, untrue reason to carry out a war) (how to convince your Public Opinion that the Enemy is the Evil)

SOME EXAMPLES FROM THE LAST TWO CENTURIES:

Casus Belli (1) n n In 1812 Napoleon, forgetting the recent friendship treaty of Tilsit, attacks and invades Russia. False reason: Russia accused of reactivating trades with Britain during the Continental Block employing neutral ships

“Casus Belli” (2) n n In 1859 France and Piedmont, according to the secret Agreements of Plombieres between Cavour and Napoleon III, compell Austria to declare war inventing false episodes of Austrian misbehaviour in some small “Italian” Kingdoms under the rule of Vienna Result: the so-called 2 nd Italian “independence” war

“Casus Belli” (3) n Berlin, 1870: “The King of Prussia ill-treated the French Ambassador!”

“Casus Belli” (4) n Cuba, 1898: “Spain sank the Maine!”

“Casus Belli” (5) n Atlantic, 1917: “Germany sinks Lusitania, a civilian ship!”

n n n “Lusitania is a militarized ship” (Jane’s Catalogue and Brassey Naval Book) Used by USA (not at war) to transfer weapons and ammunitions to UK (at war with GE) GE warning: “Don’t embark civilians!”; Lusitania leaves NY with 1. 959 passengers Off Liverpool a German U-boot torpedos that “armed merchant cruiser”, a legitimate mil obj Huge explosion, caused by munitions

“Casus Belli” (6) n Ethiopia, 1935: “Ethiopia is attacking Italy!”

“Casus Belli” (7) n Poland, 1939: “Poland attacks Germany!”

“Casus Belli” (8) n Pearl Harbor, 1941: “Japan attacks USA treacherously!”

n n n n 7 October 1940: Mc. Collum plan (14 points) to compell Japan to begin a war, 1940: Roosevelt transfers the Pacific Fleet (sacrifical victim) from Western coast (well protected) to Hawaii. Adm Richardson fired, 1941 (Jan-Dec): dozens of reports about a Japanese attack, Hawaii HQ never informed, US-NL Treaty: war if JP crosses 10°N, 4 Dec: Treaty in force, US at war with JP, 3 days before the attack! 6 Dec: Roosvelt reads the declaration of war and informs the guests during the dinner: “Gentlemen, the war begins tomorrow” 7 Dec: Pearl Harbour

Casus Belli (9) n n In 1939 Soviet Union attacks Finland. False reason: “Finland attacked a Soviet garrison near Leningrad on 27 November” 29 November: SU breaks diplomatic relations. 30 November: SU attacks with 800. 000 soldiers and 1. 500 tanks

“Casus Belli” (10) n Montecassino Abbey, 15 February 1944: “The Germans have fortified the abbey!”

“Casus Belli” (11) n Dresden bombing, 13 February 1945: “A military objective!” 200. 000 dead in 1 night

“Casus Belli” (12) n Suez, 1956: “Egypt is attacking Israel!”

“Casus Belli” (13) n Vietnam, 1964: Tonkino Gulf accident (never occurred) Result: 4. 000 days of war, 58. 000 Americans KIA, 3 million Vietnamese, 200 billion dollars, 7 million tons of bombs (3 times those of WW 2), USA defeated

Casus Belli (14) n n In 1990 Saddam Hussein falsely accuses Kuwait of doing an economic policy against Iraqi interests. Contemporarily Saddam falsely accuses Kuwait of illegally pumping oil from Iraqi soil (using “oblique”, instead of vertical pumps)

“Casus Belli” (15) n Iraq, 2003: “Iraqi regime has WMD!” http: //edition. cnn. com/2003/US/02/05/sprj. irq. powell. transcript/ Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, Powell’ chief of staff from 2002 to 2005: "It was the lowest point in my life"

“Casus Belli” (16) n n Libia, 2011: “Responsibility to protect civilian populations” (UNSCR 1973) OK, what about Siria?

Lessons learned: n n n 90% of wars began with a fake “casus belli” Who wins is always right An advice for the future: investigate “casus belli” asap!

YESTERDAY AND TODAY: DURATION OF CRISES AND OF THEIR MANAGEMENT

Yesterday: (before 1945) short crises quick decisions Today: long crises long decisions (in times of globalization and IT!!!)

Short crises of yesterday: 3 Italian “Independence” Wars (1848, 1859, 1866): 1 year American Civil War (1861 -1865): 4 years Franco-German War (1870 -1871): 1 year Libia War (Italy vs. Ottoman Empire, 1911 -1912): 1 year 2 Balkanic Wars (1912, 1913): 1 year World War 1 (1914 -1918): 4 years Abyssinia Campaign (Italy vs. Ethiopia, 1935 -1936): 1 ½ years Spanish Civil War (1936 -1939): 3 years World War 2 (1939 -1945): 5 years Average of these 12 examples: 2 years

Short (quick) decisions of yesterday (1): Deciding the new world order after the Napoleonic campaigns: CONGRESS OF VIENNA (1814 -1815) 7 months Deciding the new asset of the Balkans: CONGRESS OF BERLIN (1878) 2 months Deciding the new worl order after WW 1: CONFERENCE OF PARIS (1919) 6 months Deciding the victory strategy in WW 2 : CONFERENCE OF TEHERAN (1943) 4 days

Short (quick) decisions of yesterday (2): Deciding the new world order after the victory in WW 2: CONFERENCE OF YALTA (1945) 7 days Deciding the occupation zones in Germany: CONFERENCE OF POTSDAM (1945) 2 weeks Deciding the destiny of WW 2 losers in Europe: NUREMBERG PROCESS (1946) 10 months Average of these 7 examples: 3 months

Long (never-ending) crises of today: Vietnam crisis (vs. France, USA, Cambodia, China 1945 -1980): 35 years Cold War (1945 -1989): 45 years India-Pakistan crisis (1947 -today): 67 years Israeli-Palestinian conflict (1948 -today): 66 years Korean crisis (1950 -today): 64 years Iraqi crisis (1991 -today): 23 years, but… Afghan crisis (2001 -today): 13 years, but… Average of these 8 examples: 50 years (+)

Long (never-ending) decisions of today: Armaments control (CFE, ABM, START, CSBM, SALT, …) RESULTS? Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Camp David, Taba, Oslo, Sharm el. Sheikh, Annapolis, …) RESULTS? ? Afghanistan (Bonn, Rome, London, Tokio, Washington, Moscow, The Hague, G 8 Trieste, …. ) RESULTS? ? ?

Sun Zu, 25 centuries ago: n n “Don’t begin a war if you don’t know how to exit” “A war must be as short as possible”

Suggestions for Thesis: n n Casus belli: comparing different crises Duration of crises: the reasons why they are becoming never-ending (don’t copy!) n

Crisis Management and Prevention Giovanni Marizza gianni. marizza@yahoo. it 20 May 2014, 15. 00 – 19. 00