1976833b380d03ed9e901dc1dbdf8eb9.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 11
HSBC Bank USA, N. A. Trade and Supply Chain Trade & Supply Chain May 2010
Global Macro Trends n Emerging markets are growing faster than developed markets In Q 1 manufacturing and services output in emerging markets rose at fastest rate since Q 4 2007 Manufacturing sector reported the largest quarterly rise in output since data was first available in Q 2 2004 Employment shows largest increase since Q 4 2007 Sales buoyed by rising exports, which showed the largest quarterly increase since Q 2 2004. HSBC expects Chinese GDP to expand at a rate of 9. 5% in 2010 after an 8. 5% gain in 2009 – despite drop in U. S. consumer demand n Emerging market growth impacting commodity prices Chinese demand for commodities and other goods has kept prices high Elevated commodity prices will continue to bolster the export earnings of emerging nations, supporting intra-regional trade within the emerging world Economic recovery across emerging nations accompanied by a return of pricing pressures, particularly for raw materials *Source HSBC Emerging Markets Index Q 4 2009 and Q 1 2010 2|
Global Macro Trends n Economic recovery worldwide beginning to materialize in Q 1 2010 All nations, both developed and emerging, have seen a robust manufacturing response in recent quarters, reflecting an end to destocking and a synchronized recovery in world trade U. S. sales rose 1. 6% in March from the prior month Retail sales have increased 8. 2% in the past year n World trade grows faster than GDP Historically World Trade has grown at a faster pace than GDP Although world trade declined during the 2007 -9 global economic crisis, we anticipate that trade will recover quickly when GDP growth returns *Source HSBC Emerging Markets Index Q 4 2009 and Emerging Markets Index Q 1 2010 and U. S. Department of Commerce 3|
Trade and the Global Economy n Supplier / Buyer outlook – Cautious optimism in developed markets Small and medium business conducting cross-border trade report: Increased optimism about global trade prospects Increased optimism about the global economy Confidence that they will have access to adequate credit to finance business growth Trade continues with a stable focus on risk management throughout the trade cycle Due diligence on trading partners HSBC Trade Confidence Index 1 H 2010 – global overview Note: (1) The Global index is the unweighted average of the 17 markets listed above in 1 H 10 4| *Trade Confidence Index – May 2010
U. S. Trade Outlook n Buyer/Supplier Outlook – US Businesses Expect increasing trade volume Outlook on trade volume in the next 6 months % 2 H 09 1 H 10 Decrease Significantly 5| 2 H 09 1 H 10 Decrease Slightly 2 H 09 1 H 10 Maintain Same Level 2 H 09 1 H 10 Increase Slightly 2 H 09 1 H 10 Increase Significantly
U. S Trade Outlook n Emerging markets are most promising regions for growth % 27 (+13) Latin America 23 (+3) Greater China (HKG, PRC, TWN, Macau) 16 (-10) Canada 7 (-1) Southeast Asia Middle East ## Western Europe (excl UK) Rest of Asia ^ UK Australia/ New Zealand # Central/Eastern Europe (excl Germany) Sub-Saharan Africa ^ Germany Don’t Know/Refused Notes: Greater China includes Hong Kong SAR, Mainland China, Taiwan, Macau ^ New code added in 1 H 10 # 6 Modified from Central/Eastern Europe to Central/Eastern Europe (excl. Germany) in 1 H 10 | ##Modified from Western Europe (Incl. UK) to Western Europe (excl. UK) in 1 H 10 (Change from 2 H 09) 5 (+1) 4 (-6) 4 (0) 3 (/) 3 (+1) 2 (-3) 1 (-2) 1 (/) 4 (0) +Figures with less than 1% mentions are not shown.
U. S. Trade Outlook n Need to mitigate risk still significant U. S. Outlook on Supplier Non-Delivery % 2 H 09 1 H 10 2 H 09 Increase Significantly 1 H 10 Increase Slightly 2 H 09 1 H 10 Maintain Same Level 2 H 09 1 H 10 Decrease Slightly 2 H 09 1 H 10 Decrease Significantly Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. U. S. Outlook on Buyer Default 70 14 % 1 2 H 09 12 11 8 2 1 H 10 Increase Significantly 7| 73 2 2 H 09 1 H 10 Increase Slightly 2 H 09 1 H 10 Maintain Same Level 2 H 09 1 H 10 Decrease Slightly Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. 2 H 09 1 1 H 10 Decrease Significantly
U. S. Trade Outlook n Exchange rates an increasing concern % 1 H 10 (Change from 2 H 09) 8|
Trade and the Global Economy n Trends over the past 12 months Improving outlook in the economy/marketplace Continued focus on risk management: Due diligence on trading partners Return to traditional trade finance terms and products that provide greater structure and control over transactions Working with financial providers that have capital strength Government and non-government agencies have implemented a number of stimulus packages aimed at encouraging cross-border trade 9|
Summary n U. S. businesses are cautiously optimistic about trade growth and the global economy, while emerging markets are the most confident Confident about their need for and their ability to obtain trade financing Still cautious about buyer defaults and supply non delivery risks n Emerging markets leading trade rebound and global economic recovery and present an enormous opportunity for U. S. exporters and importers Latin America becoming an increasingly important player for U. S. companies Increased domestic consumption in emerging markets presents an opportunity for new trade corridors that can benefit both developed and emerging economies n Intra-regional trade will underpin global trade activity including intraregional trade between U. S. and Canada n Fluctuations in exchange rates and trade regulations represent the biggest barriers to trade n International businesses need to focus on risk mitigation: FX Trading partner relationships Availability of finance 10 |
Disclaimer PRODUCTS AND SERVICES ARE OFFERED BY EITHER HSBC BANK USA, N. A. , MEMBER FDIC; OR HSBC SECURITIES (USA) INC. A REGISTERED BROKER DEALER AND A REGISTERED FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT. HSBC SECURITIES (USA) INC. IS A MEMBER OF THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, NASD AND SIPC AND REGULATED BY THE SFA FOR THE CONDUCT OF INVESTMENT BUSINESS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM. HSBC BANK USA, N. A. AND HSBC SECURITIES (USA) INC. ARE MEMBERS OF THE HSBC GROUP. ANY MEMBER OF THE HSBC GROUP MAY FROM TIME TO TIME UNDERWRITE, MAKE A MARKET OR OTHERWISE BUY OR SELL AS PRINCIPAL SECURITIES OR OTHER INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED HEREIN, OR TOGETHER WITH THEIR DIRECTORS, OFFICERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY HAVE EITHER A LONG OR SHORT POSITION IN THE SECURITIES, COMMODITIES CURRENCIES OR OTHER INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT OR FUTURES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS CONVERTIBLE INTO SECURITIES OR OTHER INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT, OR MAY PERFORM OR SEEK TO PERFORM INVESTMENT BANKING SERVICES FOR THOSE COMPANIES MENTIONED HEREIN. THE INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS DERIVED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WE BELIEVE TO BE RELIABLE; HOWEVER, WE CANNOT GUARANTEE ITS ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS, NOR SHALL WE BE LIABLE FOR ANY INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO ERRORS (INCLUDING ERRORS OF TRANSMISSION), INACCURACIES, OMISSIONS, CHANGES IN MARKET FACTORS OR CONDITIONS, OR ANY OTHER CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THE INFORMATION, ANALYSIS AND OPINONS CONTAINED HEREIN CONSTITUTE OUR PRESENT JUDGEMENT WHICH IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS REPORT IS INTENDED SOLELY FOR THE INFORMATION OF THE SPECIFIED ADDRESSEE, IS FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION AND NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY PRIVATE CLIENTS AS DEFINED BY THE SFA. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION , OFFER OR SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE OR SELL ANY SECURITY, COMMODITY, CURRENCY OR OTHER INSTRUMENT. THIS REPORT DOES NOT CONSIDER SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES, CIRCUMSTANCES OR NEEDS OF INDIVIDUAL RECIPIENTS OF THIS REPORT SHOULD SEEK FINANCIAL ADVICE REGARDING THE APPROPRIATENESS OF INVESTING IN ANY SECURITY, COMMODITY, CURRENCY OR DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENT OR STRATEGY CONTAINED HEREIN. SECURITIES, SPOT AND FORWARD FOREIGN EXCHANGE, CURRENCY OPTOINS, COMMODITIES AND CERTAIN OTHER PRODUCTS DISCUSSED HERIN ARE NOT INSURED BY THE FDIC AND ARE NOT DEPOSITS OR OTHER OBLIGATIONS OF HSBC BANK USA, N. A. , ARE NOT GUARANTEED BY HSBC BANK USA, N. A. ; AND ARE SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF PRINCIPAL. 11 |
1976833b380d03ed9e901dc1dbdf8eb9.ppt