HQ United States Air Forces Fly — Fight

HQ United States Air Forces Fly - Fight - Win USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Director AF Weather 3 Mar 08

Overview Air Force Weather n Tropical Cyclone Support … 10 Years Ago n Current Forecast Accuracy & Improvements n Operational Vision n Air Force Support n Research Community … Need your continued support Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support 10 Years Ago w Typhoon warning capability critical to warfighters in Pacific/IO w Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast and warning accuracy Will take research and operational focus using technology as the enabler w My challenge to you is: work the 10 -year plan to improve forecast and warning accuracy by a factor of 3 or more w Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Forecast Accuracy Impressive! Improvement factor 2. 0 – 2. 5! We can work this. Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Operations Vision w Typhoon warning capability critical to warfighters in Pacific/IO w Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast and warning accuracy Will take research and operational focus using technology as the enabler w Need research support to improve intensity accuracy by factor of 2 w Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Strengths for Research n AF Weather has near-realtime access to interrogatable imagery n Could be formatted and disseminated for research projects n Hurricane Hunters – WC 130 J n AFRC environmental recon mission corrects/validates satellite interrogation techniques n Leverage UAS capabilities Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Strengths for Research n Continues to send officers through Naval post graduate programs to earn tropical-related masters degrees n Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) operationalizes research through its techniques development section n JTWC data available in digital formats n Easily leveraged for research Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support T-PARC Objectives THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment • Environmental characterization, insight, prediction • Scale and regional interaction – downstream effects • Tropical cyclone position, intensity, and structure change • Atmosphere/ocean and storm/environment interaction • Multiple, near-coincident, synoptic scale observations • METSAT intensity estimate validation/verification • Robust sample size enhances statistical significance – key to establishing confidence in existing/developmental techniques • Lack of recon data limits METSAT-based intensity exploitation Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support T-PARC / PACAF Participation T-PARC/TCS-08 a strategic opportunity for PACAF n Bolsters unique AF support to multi-lateral/international effort n Vital AF contribution to mission (USPACOM Inst 0539. 1) n AFSO 21 initiative -- enables transformational branches/sequels n Leverages past AF investment in METSAT intensity estimates n Targeted PACAF investment disproportionate strategic effect(s) n 17 OWS personnel are involved with key planners n ONR, NRL, NPS and NCAR n Progress on non-monetary efforts, more progress expected n Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support T-PARC & Hurricane Hunters HAF providing mandays for AF Reserve aircrews n Pairing satellite and aircraft reconnaissance to draw statistically-significant conclusions on the accuracy of several automated meteorological satellite tropical cyclone intensity estimation algorithms n This research will validate/refute basin-unique synoptic-scale environmental influences/differences n One step closer to validating automated satellite techniques in NWPAC n Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Community Help Need research community support n Top priority is intensity/structure…need improved: n n Satellite based intensity estimates n n Specification of cyclone structure (wind strength and distribution) Forecast techniques for cyclone intensity/structure changes over time Climate change influence on cyclone tracks / intensities n Impacts on strategic / failing states (e. g. , Africa, Indian Ocean) Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Community Help Questions? Fly - Fight - Win

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support AFIT Thesis Topics n Quantify the amount of forecast error attributed to initial position error in the major models n Determine intensity using passive microwave radiance data n Determine if rapid fluctuations in typhoon intensity could have been influenced by ocean heat content and TC heat potential n Identify sources of large forecast track errors n Develop rules of thumb to improve rapid intensification forecasting 24 to 48 hours before it occurs n Identify factors that may enhance or inhibit tropical cyclone development in the western North Pacific n Develop a monsoon depression climatology n Develop a midget tropical cyclone climatology Fly - Fight - Win