HOW WILL THE UNITED STATES CALCULATE THE CLIMATE

HOW WILL THE UNITED STATES CALCULATE THE CLIMATE IMPACT OF BIOENERGY? Dennis Becker Associate Professor University of Minnesota

Do Americans believe in climate change? Is there solid evidence the earth is warming? Yes, solid evidence the earth is warming 62% Norwegian forest owners (May 2013) Warming mostly because of human activity 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 PEW RESEARCH CENTER, March 13 -17, 2013

Will Americans do anything about it? What kind of priority do you think Obama and the Congress should give … (percent saying highest priority) the economy reducing federal spending restructuring the federal tax system enacting stricter gun-control laws slowing rate of growth in spending on Medicare and Social Security addressing gun violence addressing immigration issues addressing global warming/ climate change Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Jan 10 -13, 2013 among random national sample of 1, 001 adults

Will Americans do anything about it? Should the federal government regulate the release of GHGs from power plants, cars and factories to reduce global warming? All adults 8% Somewhat 13% Strongly Democrat Republican Independent The Washington Post - Kaiser Family Foundation poll, July 25 – August 5, 2012

Will Americans do anything about it? FIRST NATION THE MIDLANDS THE LEFT COAST THE FAR WEST YANKEEDO M THE MIDLANDS GREATER APPALACHIA EL NORTE NEW FRANCE YANKEEDO M NEW NETHERLAN D TIDEWATE R DEEP SOUTH NEW FRANCE PART OF THE SPANISH CARIBBEAN Woodard, C. 2011. American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America

1970 Clean Air Act – requires EPA to regulate emissions of hazardous air pollutants from Biogenic Carbon Policy Timeline stationary and mobile sources; – “best available control technology” (BACT) provisions; – does NOT accommodate temporal aspects of sequestration 2007 US Supreme Court orders EPA to regulate GHGs (“endangerment”) 2010 “Tailoring Rule” adopted – allows exemption of facilities by tonnage of C emitted, not source (e. g. , biomass, fossil fuels) 2011 3 -year deferral – delayed permitting of biogenic C to conduct examination – establish Accounting Framework, and Science Advisory Board 2012 Science Advisory Board – recommendations for biogenic C accounting 2013 Deferral vacated by a federal court decision New Source Performance Standards – regulations for new coal and gas-fired electricity; rules for existing facilities by 2014; biomass exempted 2014 Revised Tailoring Rule – how will EPA accommodate temporal aspects without Congressional action (new Act vs. de-authorizing EPA)? ?

Science Advisory Board Observations Task … restricted to biogenic carbon from stationary facilities; did not assess attributional impacts Carbon neutrality … cannot be assumed a priori IPCC reporting convention … does not link stationary sources to their emissions; net carbon stock approach EPA Biogenic Accounting Framework does not consider impacts over different time scales net carbon stock approach (regional reference points) would exempt facilities by location, not by emissions holding facilities responsible for carbon leakage (e. g. , LUC) does not reduce overall emissions

Recommendations to EPA Default equations … by feedstock category, region, prior land use, current management practices Applied at facility-level Facilities can demonstrate lower emissions Anticipated baseline … compare emissions from increased harvesting against baseline Include soil sequestration and natural decay rates Consider alternate fates of residues/diverted wastes Various time scales … incorporate tradeoffs of different time scales (C-plus) Supplementary policies … to reduce carbon leakage based on assessment of directionality if not magnitude

Current Debate Temporal issues difficult to rectify – radiative forcing, albedo, etc Incorporating periodic loss events – fire, insects, and disease Transparency – clear and consistent reference conditions EPA struggling to connect biogenic emissions to a defensible Clean Air Act regulation – although biomass qualifies as “BACT” Facility-level LCA calculations would slow progress; lack consistent system boundaries and data

Other Important Developments: “Surrogate” Climate Policy – Federal Renewable Fuels Standard – 16 billion gal cellulosic biofuels by 2022 Production & Investment Tax Credits – open-looped: 1. 1¢/k. Wh; closed-looped: 2. 2¢/k. Wh Farm Bill (Energy Title) – community biomass heating; biomass procurement and sourcing Vehicle fuel standards – new vehicle emissions down 19% since 2007 BTU Act (proposed) – thermal tax parity; efficiency Clean Energy Standard (proposed) Feedstock source Form of energy Fossil fuel displaced Forest management

Other Important Developments: “Surrogate” Climate Policy – States 370+ state bioenergy policies and programs – mostly tax incentives targeting production Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) – 36 states Net metering – energy buy-back in 47 states AB 32 California – cap on GHGs; LULUC limits Massachusetts RPS – links RECs to combustion efficiency; LULUC limits Biomass harvest guidelines (site-level) – 15 states Forest certification – 50+ million hectares third-party certified (PEFC endorsed) Feedstock source Form of energy Fossil fuel displaced Forest management

For more information contact: Dennis R. Becker Associate Professor Department of Forest Resources University of Minnesota drbecker@umn. edu 612. 624. 7286 Faculty Website: http: //www. forestry. umn. edu/People/Becker/index. htm Policy Related Research: http: //enrpolicy. forestry. umn. edu/Research/Biomass. Bioenergy. Climate/index. htm