How to Be a Strategic Futurist: An Evolutionary Developmental Perspective on Accelerating Change US Army War College Strategic Leadership 2005 John Smart, President, ASF Slides: accelerating. org/slides. html
Presentation Outline 1. Introduction 2. Assumptions 3. Two Processes of Change: Evol. and Development 4. Introduction to Accelerating Change 5. Prediction: Expecting the Future 6. Management: Thriving with Change 7. Creation: Making the Future 8. Group Discussion Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
1. Introduction
Acceleration Studies Foundation l l We practice “developmental future studies, ” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices. l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto ASF (Accelerating. org) is a nonprofit community of 3, 100 scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change. Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Brief History of Futures Studies l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l l 1902, H. G. Wells, Anticipations 1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration 1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp. ) 1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International) 1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future 1967, World Future Society, Institute for the Future 1970, Alvin Toffler, Future Shock 1974, University of Houston, Studies of the Future M. S. 1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden 1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation, 1995, Tamkang U, Center for Futures Studies 1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines 2002, Acceleration Studies Foundation © 2005 Accelerating. org
Four Types of Futures Studies – – Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art) Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations) Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans) Research-Predictive (Stable Developmental Trends) l l It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The last is the critical one for acceleration studies and development studies Accelerating and increasingly efficient, autonomous, miniaturized, and localized computation is apparently a fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not. That is a key hypothesis we seek to address. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Warning: Never Trust a Single Futurist (Including Me) Never Make Big Decisions Without Using a Futures Network Each of us sees only a piece of the elephant and is easily wrong. A multi-biased network gives you a wider and deeper map of the possibility space. This will make you more adaptive, and may make you more foresighted. Modern culture spends a lot of time in the past and present, but very little thinking about personal, organizational, and global futures. Learn to fight this increasingly costly bias. Lesson: Develop your network, map the controversies, have tolerance for ambiguity, seek good data, notice weak signals, optimize today but expect emergence. Be skeptical. Consult the crowd but make your own decisions. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “You can’t get an unbiased education, so the next best thing is a multi-biased one. ” Buckminster Fuller © 2005 Accelerating. org
Graduate Foresight Programs: Futures Studies, STS, Roadmapping l l l Futures Studies (two U. S. graduate programs) Science and Technology Studies (30+ U. S. programs) Tech Roadmapping (five U. S. programs. First Ph. D under Mike Radnor at Northwestern in 1998). Artificial Life, Complexity Science, Systems Science, Simulation Learning: All still too early foresight specializations. To date only tech roadmapping is falsifiable, and is a process presently being used for major capital investment in industry (e. g. ITRS, which began as NTRS only in 1992). Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Tech Roadmapping is the closest yet to Acceleration and Development Studies. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Foresight Development: Future Prediction, Mgmt, and Creation l Prediction – l Management – l environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking, scenario development, risk analysis, hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems Creation – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, the history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, marketing research personal and entrepreneurial tools for creating individually preferred futures, research and development, creative thinking, positive psychology, social networking, business plan production © 2005 Accelerating. org
Where are the U. S. College Courses in Foresight Development? l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Tamkang University 27, 000 undergrads Top-ranked private university in Taiwan Like history and current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995. Why not here? © 2005 Accelerating. org
2. Assumptions
Systems Theory Systems Theorists Make Things Simple (sometimes too simple!) "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. " — Albert Einstein Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
The Infopomorphic Paradigm Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The universe is a physical-computational system. We exist for information theoretic reasons. We’re here to discover, think/emote, and create. © 2005 Accelerating. org
The MESTI Universe Matter, Energy, Space, Time Information Increasingly Understood Poorly Known MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency drives accelerating change. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Physics of a “MESTI” Universe Physical Driver: l MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density Emergent Properties: l Information Intelligence (World Models) l Information Interdepence (Ethics) l Information Immunity (Resiliency) l Information Incompleteness (Search) An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory: Entropy = Negentropy Universal Energy Potential is Conserved. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve Free Energy Rate Density Substrate Galaxies Stars Planets (Early) Plants Animals/Genetics Brains (Human) Culture (Human) Int. Comb. Engines Jets Pentium Chips Los Angeles New York Palo Alto (ergs/second/gram) Ф 0. 5 2 (counterintuitive) 75 900 20, 000(10^4) 150, 000(10^5) 500, 000(10^5) (10^6) (10^8) (10^11) Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001 time © 2005 Accelerating. org
Strategic/Integral Foresight: Skill Sets and Processes True What Is It/Its Greeks Good What ‘We’ Want Pronouns We/He/She/You Professional Skill Sets Discovery Management Universal Social Processes Development Statics/Dynamics Convergence Law/Emergence Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Beautiful What ‘I’ Want I/Me Creativity Individual Evolution Divergence © 2005 Accelerating. org
Strategic/Integral Thinking: Edward De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats It/Its I/Me White Yellow Red (Facts) (Social Positive) (Intuition) Blue Black Green (Process) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto We/He/She/You (Social Negative) (Creative) © 2005 Accelerating. org
Strategic/Integral Maps: Ken Wilber’s Process/Mgmt Quadrants Computational Processes We need foresight in all quadrants (processes and management tests). • All drive change. • None can be reduced to the others • There are no others as basic! Management/Validity Tests Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Types of Intelligence: Gardner’s ‘Frames’/ ‘Modules’ Gardner has developed research and metrics for eight different “frames” or “modules” of human capacity. A great way to look at thinking. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Types of Intelligence: Wilber’s ‘Lines/Vectors’ I Intrapersonal/Self-Identity l Body/Kinesthetic/Health l Cognitive/Emotional/Needs l Creativity/Creative l It (MEST Mgmt) Visual/Spatial l Aural/Musical l Spatio-Temporal l Material-Energetic l We (Social Mgmt) Interpersonal/Social-Identity l Linguistic/Social-Narrative l Moral/Culture/Social-Relation l Intimacy/Social-Care l l Its Nature/Systems Info l Logic/Mathematical Info l Object Relations/Structure l Discovery/Predictive l Meta/Transcendent/Spiritual Attractor Wilber proposes at least twice as many intelligence lines/dimensions than Gardner. I’ve mapped the ones that I think are justified to his quadrants, above. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Wilber also proposes all lines follow a developmental vector, that the higher levels of all lines look spiritual, and that the spiritual line is a convergent intelligence attractor that continually seeks to look meta (above, beyond) all the other lines. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Vectors of Development: Sequential Growth Stages Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Stages are probability functions, not discrete “levels” of development. They are sequential and directional, but you can regress with abnormal trauma or deterioration. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Gilligan’s Stages of Female Moral Development Stage Sample Question: Is abortion a woman’s right? Universal Care “Yes, sometimes” (birth defects, etc. ) (integral, weighted, plural) Care (culture, conformity, code) “No” (against dominant culture/code/convention) Selfish “Yes” (my body, my choice) (ego, individual) Stages are probabilities, but they are sequential and directional. This is reasonably good research. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Carol Gilligan © 2005 Accelerating. org
Debser’s Stages of Cultural Development Stage Integral Sample Belief System “Many things change the world. ” Rational “Science changes the world. ” Mythic “Other’s power changes the world. ” Magic “My wishes change the world. ” Archaic “Nothing/work changes the world. ” Some stage conceptions have a lot less evidence at present, but seem good candidates for further research. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Eugene Debser © 2005 Accelerating. org
Maslow’s Hierarchy of Self-Needs Smart’s Hierarchy of Socioeconomics Biological Learning Stages Self-Transcendence (Religion & Death) Technological Learning Stages Bio-Transcension? Digital Twin IT Society Valuecosm IT Society Network IT Society / Property Manufacturing Society Agricultural Society Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
3. Two Processes of Change: Evolution and Development
Replication & Variation “Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Complex Environmental Interaction The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development” Left Hand Los Angeles New York Palo Alto New Computat’l Phase Space Opening Selection & Convergence “Convergent Selection” Emergence, Global Optima MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Right Hand Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization © 2005 Accelerating. org
Evolution vs. Development “The Twin’s Thumbprints” Consider two identical twins: Thumbprints Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Brain wiring Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns. Development creates the predictable global patterns. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development) The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST Los Angeles compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin. New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Evolution tried this experiment. Development calculated an operational optimum. Some reptiles (e. g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on an Automobile? Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Evolution and Development: Two Universal Systems Processes Evolution Development Chance Randomness Variety/Many Possibilities Uniqueness Uncertainty Accident Bottom-up Divergent Differentiation Necessity Determinism Unity/One Constraints Sameness Predictability Design (self-organized or other) Top-Down Convergent Integration Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Political Polarities: Innovation vs. Sustainability Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism). © 2005 Accelerating. org
4. Introduction to Accelerating Change
From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: “The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
A U-Shaped Curve of Change Big Bang Singularity Developmental Singularity? 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 100, 000 yrs: Matter 100, 000 yrs ago: H. sap. 1 B yrs: Protogalaxies Los Angeles New York Palo Alto 8 B yrs: Earth © 2005 Accelerating. org
Punctuated Equilibrium (in Biology, Technology, Economics, Politics…) l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Eldredge and Gould (Biological Species) Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”) (income distribution technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development) 80% Equilibrium (Evolution) Suggested Reading: For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More © 2005 Accelerating. org
Different Kinds of Accelerations: Efficiency vs. Transformation Business Week’s First Edition, October 1929: l IBM has an ad for “electric sorting machines. ” l PG&E has an ad announcing natural gas powered factories in San Francisco. Could we have predicted that one of these technologies would continually transform itself while another would experience accelerating efficiencies but, on the surface, be unchanged? Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is that successful solutions always increase MEST efficiency, they “do more with less. ” Strategies to capitalize on this: Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill. Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions. Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency. Build a national culture that rewards refinements. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U. S. homes and businesses. © 2005 Accelerating. org
A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology How S Curves Get Old Resource limits in a niche Material Energetic Spatial Temporal Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing No Known or Historical Limits to Information Acceleration 1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last 2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time © 2005 Accelerating. org
The Technological Singularity Hypothesis Each unique physicalcomputational substrate appears to have its own “capability curve. ” The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Henry Adams, 1909: The First “Singularity Theorist” The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities. " Wild speculation or computational reality? Still too early to tell, at present. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Something Curious Is Going On Unexplained. (Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
The Developmental Spiral l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Homo Habilis Age Homo Sapiens Age Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age Agricultural Age Empires Age Scientific Age Industrial Age Information Age Symbiotic Age Autonomy Age Tech Singularity 2, 000 yrs ago 100, 000 yrs 40, 000 yrs 7, 000 yrs 2, 500 yrs 380 yrs (1500 -1770) 180 yrs (1770 -1950) 70 yrs (1950 -2020) 30 yrs (2020 -2050) 10 yrs (2050 -2060) ≈ 2060 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles? l A 30 -year cycle, from 1990 -2020 – l A 20 -year cycle, from 2020 -2040 – l CUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature Self-Reconfig. /Evolutionary Computing. 2050: Era of Strong Autonomy – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto CUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation, Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades. A 10 -year cycle, from 2040 -2050 – l 1 st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2 nd gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins. Progressively shorter 5 -, 2 -, 1 -year tech cycles, each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Macrohistorical Singularity Books The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Trees of Evolution, 2000 Singularity 2130 ± 20 years Singularity 2080 ± 30 years © 2005 Accelerating. org
Macrohistorical Singularity Books Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The Singularity is Near, 2005 Singularity 2050 ± 10 years Singularity 2050 ± 20 years © 2005 Accelerating. org
“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency: Wigner and Mead The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on symmetries and simple universalities in mathematical physics. F=ma F=-(Gm 1 m 2)/r 2 E=mc 2 W=(1/2 mv 2) Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm, ” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0. 15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Example: Holey Optical Fibers Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal, " can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable. l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across. This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT and networking revolutions. Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20 th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Understanding the Lever of ICT "Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand I will move the world. " Archimedes of Syracuse (287 -212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD “The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world. ” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…) © 2005 Accelerating. org
Our Historical Understanding of Accelerating Change In 1904, we seemed nearly ready to see intrinsically accelerating progress. Then came mechanized warfare (WW I, 1914 -18, WW II, 1939 -45), Communist oppression (60 million deaths). 20 th century political deaths of 170+ million showed the limitations of humanengineered accelerating progress models. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Today the idea of accelerating progress remains in the cultural minority, even in first world populations. It is viewed with interest but also deep suspicion by a populace traumatized by technological extremes, global divides, and economic fluctuation. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control, 1993 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Quiz Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states? Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Quiz Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states? 76 MNC’s and 24 Nations. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto GBN, Future of Philanthropy, 2005 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Quiz Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? (296 million Americans in 2005) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Quiz Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997, when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30 billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks roughly as the 60 th largest country, and the 55 th largest business. When MSFT went public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also Top Heavy, 2002) © 2005 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Quiz Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _____? Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Quiz Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _____? Three minutes for Disney. Twenty minutes for Sony. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment? , March-May 2005 © 2005 Accelerating. org
World Economic Performance GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A. D. This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Notice the “knee of the curve” occurs at the industrial revolution, circa 1850. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Understanding Process Automation l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “ 7/8 comes from technical progress. ” Human contribution (20%? ) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound © 2005 Accelerating. org
Automation and Job Disruption Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost 22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing to a Service Economy. l America lost about 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China. l China lost 15 million ind. jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune) l Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, the country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since 1992. (Economist) “Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we knew on farms and the assembly line. ” (Tsvi Bisk) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto "The Misery of Manufacturing, " The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003 "Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive, " Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003 “The Future of Making a Living, ” Tsvi Bisk, 2003 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Back to the Greek Future l l l Greece built an enviable empire on the back of human slaves. 21 C humanity is building an even more enviable on the back of our robotic servants. Expect machine emancipation, too. “The more things change, the more some things stay the same. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change l Technological (dominant since 1950!) “It’s all about the technology” (what it enables, how inexpensively it can be developed) l Economic (dominant 1800 -1950’s, secondary now) “It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it) l Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now) “It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it) Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first. ” 2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Pluralism examples: 40, 000 NGO’s, rise of the power of media, tort law, Insurance, lobbies, etc. © 2005 Accelerating. org
5. Prediction: Expecting the Future
Smart’s Laws of Technology 1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do. (Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development). 2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development. (Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P 2 P as a proprietary or open source development) 3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers). Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Humans are Prediction Systems “Our brain is structured for constant forecasting. ” Jeff Hawkins, Inventor, Palm. Pilot, CTO, Palm Computing Founder, Redwood Neurosciences Institute Author, On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
The Prediction Wall and The Prediction Crystal Ball What does hindsight tell us about prediction? The Year 2000 was the most intensive long range prediction effort of its time, done at the height of the forecasting/ operations research/ cybernetics/ think tank (RAND) driven/ “instrumental rationality” era of Futures Studies. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto (Kahn & Wiener, 1967). © 2005 Accelerating. org
Classic Predictable Accelerations: Moore’s Law Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc. ) double their complexity every 12 -24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000 X (Ten doublings: 2, 4, 8…. 1024). Emergence! There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density). © 2005 Accelerating. org
Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Transistor Doublings (2 years) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil. AI. net © 2005 Accelerating. org
Processor Performance (1. 8 years) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil. AI. net © 2005 Accelerating. org
DRAM Miniaturization (5. 4 years) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil. AI. net © 2005 Accelerating. org
Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech: Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0. 19 y 1960) Dickerson’s law predicted 14, 201 solved crystal structures by 2002. The actual number (in online Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14, 250. Just 49 more. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Many Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles There are many natural cycles: Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust, Conflict-Peace… Ray Kurzweil first noted that a generalized, century-long Moore’s Law was unaffected by the U. S. Great Depression of the 1930’s. Conclusion: Human-discovered, Not human-created complexity here. Not many intellectual or physical resources are required to keep us on the accelerating developmental trajectory. (“MEST compression Los Angeles is a rigged game. ”) New York Palo Alto Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999 © 2005 Accelerating. org
IT’s Exponential Economics Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil. AI. net © 2005 Accelerating. org
Automation and the Service Society Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio, 110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4. 2: 1 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982* Network/Services/KM Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”) Network 1. 0 “Mc. Jobs” & Service 65% of Jobs, 2000’s Network 2. 0 New Middle Class 40% of Jobs, 2030’s Network 3. 0 Consolidation Again 15% of Jobs, 2060’s Manufacturing/Information Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”) Manufacturing 1. 0 Exploitive Jobs 50% of Jobs, 1900’s Manufacturing 2. 0 New Middle Class 35% of Jobs, 1950’s Manufacturing 3. 0 Offshoring/Globalizing 14% of Jobs, 2000’s Agricultural Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Agriculture 1. 0 Subsistence Jobs 80% of Jobs, 1820’s Agriculture 2. 0 Family Farms 50% of Jobs, 1920’s Agriculture 3. 0 Corporate Farms 2% of Jobs, 1990’s *Also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Network Economy 1. 0 Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column? Remittances (From Guest Workers in U. S. and Canada) NGO’s (Nonprofit Contribs) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Foreign Direct Investment (Corporate) Government Aid (IMF, WB, G 8, USAID) © 2005 Accelerating. org
Network Economy 1. 0 Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column? Remittances (From Guest Workers in U. S. and Canada) Foreign Direct Investment (Corporate) NGO’s (Nonprofit Contribs) Government Aid (IMF, WB, G 8, USAID) A: Remittances, since 2003. This may be a permanent shift. Shows what could happen in Africa, Russia, other emigrating (“brain drain”) nations. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Future of Philanthropy, GBN, 2005 © 2005 Accelerating. org
The Voluntary Future Lifetime hours trends: 1880 1995 2040 Total Available (after eating, 225, 900 sleeping, etc. ) 298, 500 321, 900 Worked to earn a living 182, 100 122, 400 75, 900 Balance for Leisure and Voluntary Work 43, 800 176, 100 246, 000 Prediction: Great increase in voluntary activities. Culture, entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist, founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and mathematical models) © 2005 Accelerating. org
Many Accelerations are: 1) Underwhelming or 2) Logistic (“S” curves) Some Underwhelming Exponentials: l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Productivity per U. S. worker hr has improved 500% over 75 years (1929 -2004, 2% per yr) Business investment as % of U. S. GDP is flat at 11% over 25 years. Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP is up 30% (1. 6 to 2. 1%) over 21 years (1981 -2002). Technology spending as % of U. S. GDP is up 100% (4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967 -2002) Business. Week, 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10. 11. 2004 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Saturation Example 1: Total World Population Positive feedback loop: Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
So What Stopped the Growth? Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Saturation Example 2: Total World Energy Use DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected growth is progressively flatter since. Saturation factors: 1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973) 2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new generation of technological system 3. Saturation of human population and human needs for tech transformation Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures. Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energyeffective in ways very few of us currently understand. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Global Energy Use Saturation: Energy Consumption Per Capita When per capita GDP reaches: • $3, 000 – energy demand explodes as industrialization and mobility take off, • $10, 000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed, • $15, 000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met, • $25, 000 – economic growth requires little additional energy. Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Longer Term Example: Solar Energy l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Twenty to fifty year development horizon. 5 -10% efficiencies at present. Need 50%. Need good, cheap energy storage systems. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Accelerating Ephemeralization and the Increasingly Weightless Economy In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization, ” positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage. " (e. g. , sending virtual bits to do physical work) Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (electron, photon, etc. ) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity. In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto This trend has also been called “virtualization, ” “weightlessness, ” and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density. © 2005 Accelerating. org
The Symbiotic Age Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology: l. A time when computers “speak our language. ” l A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. l A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. l A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the commercial digital world emerged. New problems have emerged (population, human rights, asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions for each in coming waves of technological globalization. “The human does not change, but our house becomes exponentially more intelligent. ” We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams, who realized the core acceleration is due to the intrinsic properties of technological systems. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998 © 2005 Accelerating. org
An ICT Attractor: The Conversational User Interface (CUI) l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Google’s cache (2002) As we watch Windows 2004 become Conversations 2020… Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech © 2005 Accelerating. org
Why Will You Use An “Agent Interface” in 2020? Ananova, 2002 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Social Software, Lifelogs Gmail preserves, for the first time, everything we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers (who don’t know it). Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. This storage (and processing, and bandwidth) makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed. Lifeblog, Sense. Cam, What Was I Thinking, and My. Life. Bits (2003) are early examples of “Life. Logs. ” Systems for auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life experience. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and data begins turning into wisdom. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
The Valuecosm l l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Microcosm, Telecosm (Gilder) Datacosm (Sterling) Valuecosm (Smart) Recording and Publishing DT Preferences Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us Mapping Positive Sum Social Interactions Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) Early Examples: Social Network Media © 2005 Accelerating. org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine. ” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children. ” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “ 50% her. ” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “ 80% him. ” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological may begin to feel like only growth, not death. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto We wouldn’t have it any other way. Greg Panos (and Mother) Persona. Foundation. org © 2005 Accelerating. org
Personality Capture In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic. ” (Brian Arthur, SFI) © 2005 Accelerating. org
AI-in-the-Interface (a. k. a. “IA”) • AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4. 2003) ― $1 B in ’ 93 (mostly defense), $12 B in 2002 (now mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U. S. , Asia, Europe equally strong ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing faster than decision support and agents ― Incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc. ) • Computer telephony (CT) making strides (Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys). ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010 -15? ) • Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI) Los Angeles Persuasive Computing, and New York Personality Capture Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Human-Competitive Machine Intelligence: Automated Trading Comes of Age l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto As of 2005, automated computer trading models (algorithmic, black box, and program trading) now execute more than half of all U. S. stock trades. From 2003 to 2005, Banc of America Securities LLC let go of half their human traders, while increasing trading volume 160%. All major brokers are spending millions on this technology. Minor brokers coming next. We are now seeing the beginning of the AI Age in the financial community. Business. Week, 4. 18. 2005 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Robo sapiens “Huey and Louey” AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2 (Something very cool about this algorithm…) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Aibo Soccer © 2005 Accelerating. org
Ubiquitous Sensing, Geospatial Web, and Accelerating Public Transparency David Brin’s “Panopticon” The Transparent Society, 1998 Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
MEST Compression as a Developmental Attractor: Don’t Bet Against It! Balloon Satellites: Disruptive Tech? Inventor: Hokan Colting 21 st. Century. Airships. com 180 feet diameter. Autonomous. 60, 000 feet (vs. 22, 000 miles) Permanent geosynch. location. Onboard solar and navigation. A “quarter sized” receiver dish. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Q 1: Which apps have been discussed? a. Border monitoring b. City monitoring c. Urban broadband d. Early warning radar Q 2: Why are satellites presently failing against the wired world? Latency, bandwidth, launch costs. MEST compression always wins. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Tomorrow’s Fastspace: User-Created 3 D Persistent Worlds l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Future Salon in Second Life Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others. Streaming video added 2005. Cost: $10 for life + fast graphics card ($180) © 2005 Accelerating. org
U. S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor Built mostly by hardworking immigrants The Network of the 1880’s Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
IT Globalization (2000 -2020): Promontory Point Revisited The more things change, the more some things stay the same. The intercontinental internet will be built primarily by hungry young programmers and tech support personnel in India, Asia, third-world Europe, Latin America, and other developing economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World technical support population between five- and ten-to-one. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Consider what this means for the goals of U. S. business and education: Global management, partnerships, and collaboration. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Information Age: Staggered Closing of Global Divides l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom Income divide may be closing the next fastest. First world plutocracy still increasing, but we are already “rationalizing” global workforce wages in the last decade*. Education divide may close next (post-LUI) Power divide likely to close last. Political change is the slowest of all domains. *World Bank, 2005 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Our Generation’s Theme First World Saturating Third World Uplifting Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Empire Progression (Note the West-Far East Trajectory) Japan (Temporary: Pop density, Few youth, no resources. East Asian Tigers (Taiwan Hong Kong South Korea Singapore) American India China Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Expect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist” transition. Population control, plentiful resources, stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital. U. S. science fairs: 50, 000 high school kids/year. Chinese science fairs: 6, 000 kids/year. For now. BHR-1, 2002 © 2005 Accelerating. org
A Prediction: The Sputnik of Networking 2. 0 Society Sputnik U. S. -Surpassing Space/Defense Tech Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Humbot Human-Surpassing Security/Warfighting Tech © 2005 Accelerating. org
MEST Compression/Capacity Metric l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto How proficient can the Humbot be vs. a human soldier? Running down a perp, through any terrain, and bringing him in. The Robocop objective. Network of 1, 000 mesh sensors monitoring a square mile for the bot. Teleoperated or semi-autonomous. “Shock and Awe on a Somalian Streetcorner” © 2005 Accelerating. org
Will the Do. D Make the Humbots of 2030? l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto It won’t be Europe or Japan (Post-Military) Could be Taiwan/China/India/Korea or some collaboration thereof. Will Japan license IP? When (not if) will soldiering be consolidated to 1/5 the numbers we see today? 2050? 2090? Will the U. S. still be the #1 provider of world security? Will we partner intelligently or try to go it alone? The lead is ours to keep or lose. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Strategic Proposal: Innovate, Collaborate, “Fight for 40%” l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto IBM-Lenovo (Chinese Computer Company) laptop deal. IBM retains 18% ownership. Is this a true innovation partnership? Can make the deal so independent that it must be. Technology interdependence leads corporate interdependence which then leads political interdependence (last) today globally. Not usually the reverse. © 2005 Accelerating. org
6. Management: Thriving with Change
We Have Two Options: Future Shock or Future Shaping “We need a pragmatic optimism, a cando, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo. ” ― David Brin Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Automation Development Creates Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Automating of farming pushed people into factories (1820, 80% of us were farmers, 2% today) Automating of factories is pushing people into service (1947, 35% were in factories, 14% today) Automating of service is pushing people into information tech (2003, 65% of GDP is in service industry) Automating of IT will push people into symbiont groups (“personality capture”) Automating of symbiont groups will push people beyond biology (“transhumanity”) © 2005 Accelerating. org
S-Curves and Creative Destruction New Old Europe (Network 1. 0) Spain’s Recent Creation of Two. Tier Workforce. “Mc. Jobs” Under Newly Creatively Destructive 40). (20 5% Unemployment) Ireland, New E. U. (10 on flat tax) New Asia (Network 1. 0) Very High CD Index United States (Network 0. 8) 50% CD Index 50% of top 25 companies no longer top after 25 years. We are IT-challenged vs. Asia Japan (Network 1. 0) Old Europe (Mfg 3. 0) Low/Very Low CD Index Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, etc. Germany (13% unemployment) Italy (11% unemployment) France (10% unemployment) © 2005 Accelerating. org
Taiwan’s Example l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Taiwan requires university undergraduates to take courses in Futures Studies. Taiwan owns 46, 000 contract factories in China (mutually assured economic destruction). Taiwan has become the IT hardware manufacturing capital of the world. Taiwan has the highest degree of economic creative destruction in the world. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Our Greatest Strategic Interest: Managing Globalization “America has had 200 years to invent, regenerate, and calibrate the balance that keeps markets free without becoming monsters. We have the tools to make a difference. We have the responsibility to make a difference. And we have a huge interest in making a difference. Managing globalization is… our overarching national interest today and the political party that understands that first… will own the real bridge to the future. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (2000). © 2005 Accelerating. org
Globalization Eras Globalization I: 1800’s – WWI Mechanism: Industrial Revolution, cheap transportation Backlash Ideologies: Communism, Socialism, Fascism Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Globalization Eras Globalization II: 1980’s – Present Mechanism: Information Revolution, cheap communications Backlash Ideologies: Fundamentalism, civil disobedience, crime, ecoactivism Examples: Sem Teto, Hugo Chavez Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Technological Globalization: Winners Globalization is less a choice than a statistical inevitability, once we have accelerating, globe-spanning technologies (communication, databases, travel) on a planet of finite surface area (“sphericity”). There are some clear winners in this phase transition, such as: Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Ø Network Memes and Traditions like Free Markets, Democracy, Peace and other Interdependencies (The Ideas that Conquered the World, Michael Mandelbaum) Ø Big Cities (backbone of the emerging superorganism) (Global Networks, Linked Cities, Saskia Sassen) Ø Global Corporations (large and small) (New World, New Rules, Marina Whitman) © 2005 Accelerating. org
Technological Globalization: Losers Some of the longer term losers: Ø Non-Network Memes and Traditions like Autocracy, Fascism, Indefinite Protectionism, Communism (Power and Prosperity, Mancur Olson) Ø Centrally-Planned (mostly Top-Down) vs. Market-Driven (mostly Bottom-Up) Economies (“Third World War”) (The Commanding Heights, Daniel Yergin) (Against the Tide, Douglas Irwin) Ø Groups or Nations with Ideologies/Religions Sanctioning Network-Breaking Violence (“Fourth World War”) (The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington) Ø Centrally-Planned vs. Self-Organizing Political Systems (excepting critical systems, like Security) (The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Technological Globalization: Uncertains Most elements of modern society are evolutionary, meaning they remain ‘indeterminate’ actors which may or may not become winners. Their fate depends on the paths we choose. Some key examples: Humanist Memes like Justice, Equal Opportunity, Individual Responsibility, Education, Charity, Compassion, Cultural Diversity, Sustainability, Religious Tolerance (The Dignity of Difference, Jonathan Sacks) The Unskilled Poor (In All Economies, U. S. to Uganda) (A Future Perfect, Micklethwait and Wooldridge) The Developing World (The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Globalization Management Backlash forces have to be kept in check by: • • • Global tech innovation and diffusion Global economic growth Global political • • • Los Angeles New York Palo Alto accountability transparency fair policies minimal government (maximizing tech and economic development) security © 2005 Accelerating. org
How can the U. S. Military Globalize? l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto America’s Army (Promote Foreign Players) Inderdependent Intel Community More Guest Soldiers/Exchanges International & Joint Wargames Global Arms Trade Oversight Develop and Install “Security Franchises” Global R&D Funding for Security Enabling Factors (Networked Weapons, Sensors, Autonomy/DARPA Grand Challenge) © 2005 Accelerating. org
The Pentagon’s New Map A New Global Defense Paradigm Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap The Computational “Ozone Hole” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Interdependency/Development Metrics l Gap Countries – Child and Infant Mortality Rates (Lagging Indicators) l – – l Infrastructure Information Access (Culturally Appropriate) Core Countries – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “The primary global currencies by which the “quick and privileged” negotiate change with the “slower and deprived” (Pete Lantz) Tech, Econ, Cultural Exchange Bandwidth Guest Worker Programs/Visa Reform © 2005 Accelerating. org
Immunity/Security Metrics l Core and Gap – – – Degree of Transparency Sensor Ubiquity Redundancy/Robustness Authentication/Secure Public ID Responsiveness (to catastrophe) Example: How rapidly can bombsites be cleaned up? Rebuilt? Value in differential responsiveness? Iraq provides an opportunity to run the experiment. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Interdependence/Development Metric: Measurable Exponential Value (MEV) Gap Examples (Iraq): l Communications (cellphones) l Lighting (digital solid state) l Energy (centralized scale, subsidized deflationary prices; decentralized storage and generation) Example: Donkey cart generators l Food storage, culinary, and women’s needs l Sports / Youth Fads l Portable CD Players/local music ($10 at Wal-Mart) l Security (networked cameras; camera traps) Culturally-dependent: Britain vs. S. Africa vs. U. S. l Public access radio and TV stations Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
“Planning the Peace” in Iraq: The Say-Do Development Chasm 2, 600 Iraqi Development Projects Promised 160 under way by mid-2004 (Time, July 2004) Of all of these, communications may have been our biggest lost MEV opportunity (public forum and exchange). We wired ourselves superbly (CPOF) but by end of 2004 we still had not wired into the populace, or even helped them to wire themselves, in exponential fashion. Can do one-to- many (low power radio/TV) if one-to-one (cellphones) is too risky for initial deployment. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Immune Recognition vs. Rejection The phenomenon of immune recognition (and immune tolerance) vs. rejection. The honeymoon period. Rejection, if no measurable exponential value within the host network. We did not pass this test (in fairness, we may never have passed). Nevertheless, there were many missed opportunities for deploying MEV strategy. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
DARPA R&D Ideas l Networked Lethal and Nonlethal Weapons – l Tele-Operated and Autonomous Control – l Security and Logistics Mesh Sensors/Camera Traps – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Converting Offensive to Inherently Defensive Security Assets Border/Interior Security © 2005 Accelerating. org
Interagency Cooperative R&D Ideas l Firefighting (10’s of Billions/year) – l Microwave Military Sats (10’s of Billions/year) – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Only the Do. D has the munitions for firebreaks at will. Legal and jurisdictional barrier to overcome. More legal and jurisdictional barriers. Expanding the concept of National and International Security. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Hurricane Control: New Do. D/NASA/NOAA Security Mission? Hurricane Ivan: $11 B in property damage. 11 named storms in 10 months in 2004, 7 caused damage in U. S. NOAA expects decades of hurricane hyperactivity. Ross Hoffman, use Solar Powered Satellites (SPS’s). In 1968, Peter Glaser, microwave-relay SPS’s for power on earth, tuned away from climate. These would be tuned to water vapor (like microwave oven). Low pressure centers disruptible by atmospheric heating. Very sensitive to hi pressure side steering. Cyclones, monsoons, blizzards, possibly even tornados. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Research: Russian mylar mirrors, 1993, 1999 (failed). 23 m mirror (above), 5 km light circle on the ground. Arrays would raise surface temp. several degrees. “Controlling Hurricanes, ” Scientific American, 10. 2004 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Underground AHS/TBM : DARPA/Army Corps Project? May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport. TBMs growing exponentially. No visual blight, safe, reclaim surface real estate. 10 X present capacity under our cities. Requires IV’s and ZEV’s (2025+) Los Angeles New York “Underground Palo Alto Automated Highway Systems: 2030 Vision, ” John Smart, 2005 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Tech Roadmappers Carefully Watch Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery 80% recharge in 60 seconds 99% duty after 1, 000 cycles Reliable at temp extremes Cost competitive What Might This Enable? New consumer wearable and mobile electronics l Military apps l Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“ 90% of an electric vehicle economy”) l “The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet. ” ― William Gibson Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Tools for Networking 1. 0: Social Network Analysis Note the linking nodes in these “small world” (not scale free) networks. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Chains of Affection, ” Bearman & James Moody, AJS V 110 N 1, Jul 2004 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Networking Books Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003 Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003 © 2005 Accelerating. org
Create Your Own Network: Consider Ben Franklin’s Junto l Met every Friday. The group invented: – – – l Broad Interests, Narrow Tasks. – – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto the first subscription library in North America the most advanced volunteer fire department the first public hospital in Pennsylvania, an insurance company, a constabulary, improved streetlights, paving the University of Pennsylvania. – Scientist Inventor Businessman Statesman © 2005 Accelerating. org
Social Networking: Implications for Leaders Los Angeles New York Palo Alto How to Maximize Adaptation: l Find the informal (hidden) structure of the landscape. (Data Mining) Broad Landscape: Community of Interest (Generalized) Deep Landscape: Community of Practice (Specialized) l How connected are you in these landscapes? (Network Analysis) l How many close neighbors do you have in your small worlds network? Optimized to your personal bandwidth? (Efficiency) l How many of your neighbors are bridging links to the whole system? (Network Analysis) l This will determine how rapidly feed forward and feedback can propagate to you across the entire landscape. (Robustness, Scanning, Ability to Influence Change) l Reorganize your network! Be near the center of the topics you care about. Be broad and selectively deep. © 2005 Accelerating. org
The NBIC Report and Conferences Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science Edited by Mike Roco and William Sims Bainbridge, National Science Foundation, 2002 (NSF/Do. C Sponsored Report) www. wtec. org/Converging. Technologies/ Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
“NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development l l l Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology) Biotech (biotechnology, health care) Infotech (computing and comm. technology) Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors) Sociotech (remaining technology applications) It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a still-early technology in any field. Infotech examples: A. I. , multimedia, internet, wireless It is almost as easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older, less centrally accelerating technologies. Every technology has the right time and place for innovation and diffusion. Los Angeles First mover and second mover advantages. New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
U. S. Innovation/Competitiveness/Acceleration has flagged in recent years l l l l China surpassed the U. S. this year as the largest recipient of foreign direct investment. In 2002, US Corporate R&D declined by $8 billion, largest percentage drop since 1950. Five countries (Japan, South Korea, Sweden, Finland, Israel) spend more GDP on R&D than the U. S. Foreign owned companies and foreign born inventors now count for nearly half of all U. S. patents, with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan accounting for more than one fourth. Federal R&D funding is now 1/2 of its 1960's peak of 2% of GDP. Total scientific papers by American authors peaked in 1992 and have been flat ever since. Services are the fastest growing sector of many technology companies, yet much of our service sector, now more than half the U. S. economy, traditionally does little R&D on business process design, organization, and management. Los Angeles New York Innovate America, NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004 Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
National Innovation Initiative Recommendations (sample) Talent Investment Politics Expedited, expanded sci-tech immigration Cabinet-level or NEC interagency group National sci-tech scholarship fund, tax credits to contributors 3% of Do. D budget must go back to scitech, 20% of this at U’s New innovation metrics, national innovation agenda Portable graduate tech fellowships similar to NSF fellowships Develop “services science” as a new academic discipline National innovation scorecard, prizes. Better patent office. Matching funds for postsecondary MS programs in tech and innovation Los Angeles New York Palo Alto 3% of federal R&D for “innov. accel. ” grants Reward ten regional “innovation hotspots” with 5 yrs of funding Improved IP, tort law, intangible disclosure law. Our Biggest Opportunity: Innovation partnerships with the 3 billion new workers who weren’t in the global economy ten years ago. Innovate America, NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004 © 2005 Accelerating. org
7. Creation: Making the Future
Some Tools for Making the Future l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Education Investment Literacy / Environmental Awareness – Technological – Business – Political – Social Foresight Innovation/R&D Competition (fair, creatively destructive) Leadership – Local Commitment – Global Perspective Activism © 2005 Accelerating. org
Education Questions l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto How do we best educate ourselves, our employees, our community, our children? How do we learn “on demand” when we need it? How do we learn when to act locally, and when to act globally? When to learn individually vs. collectively? © 2005 Accelerating. org
New Business IA/Social Network Idea: 24/7 Affordable Tech Education From Geek Squad to Global Computer Helpers 80 million smart, underemployed tech workers, working at a salary of $1, 400/year (China, India) + 140 million U. S. labor force (2000). + Exponentiating capabilites of our IT systems + Commodity communications costs + PC transparency software (Gotomypc) + Trust (Privacy) = 24/7 Tech Education Los Angeles New York Palo Alto How soon? Watch Dell… © 2005 Accelerating. org
Developmental Windows l In 2005, India is seeing a grassroots movement to get schools to teach English in first grade (vs. fourth grade). Three to six is a developmental window for effortless language acquisition. Mandarin or Hindi for your child? Zerotothree. org Los Angeles New York Palo Alto What will tomorrows for-profit daycare chains be like? © 2005 Accelerating. org
Investment Questions Are you practicing socially responsible and technologically responsible (acceleration aware) investing? Supporting companies, products and services that are increasingly: l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Global Intelligent Interdependent Immune/Transparent Efficient Innovative © 2005 Accelerating. org
Literacy Questions l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Are you computer, web, and communications savvy? Do you use social network media (blogs, web communities, etc. )? Do you subsidize online and technological innovation (leading, not bleeding edge)? Are you reading and interpreting what’s going on in the world? See ASF Community Directory (accelerating. org/community. html) © 2005 Accelerating. org
Foresight Questions l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Do you take time to consider the past, present, and future of your personal and professional life? Do you use strategic planning, scanning, competitive intelligence, trend extrapolation, forecasting, scenario generation, or other futures tools? Do you read the opinions of key future thinkers in your areas of professional interest? Are you supporting the emergence of a professional futures community? © 2005 Accelerating. org
Innovation Questions l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Are you thinking about innovation across the spectrum (products and services, offline and online)? Do you know which of your employees, business partners, and customers is the most innovative, all else equal? Do you reward that in your business model? Are you working with a global and virtual innovation team? © 2005 Accelerating. org
Innovation: Idea Market/Idea. Share/Should. Exist l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto A shareware ideas bank Idea Contests/Forums/Blogs “I release this to the public domain. ” Reputation and budgetary rewards Unleashing individual ingenuity Improving innovation and entrepreneurship Can you set up one for your org? © 2005 Accelerating. org
Leadership Questions l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Are you sharing your future visions or keeping them quiet? Are you getting critiques and feedback, and is this changing your perspective? Are you responding respectfully, adequately, yet concisely to your critics? Are you looking for others who also want to work toward a common vision? Is this a mutual appreciation society or is your group affecting real change? Are you tolerant of parallel, pluralist approaches? © 2005 Accelerating. org
Good Leadership Attributes l The best are passionate about 1) creating community, and 2) making it easy for users to find their voice. Stephen Covey, The Eighth Habit, 2004 “Find your voice and inspire others to find theirs. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Slow to criticize, ego-minimizing, always striving to be nice, modeling good behavior, empathic, yet responsive to communication problems. © 2005 Accelerating. org
Digital Activism: Skype (Internet Telephony) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Seeing the Extraordinary Present “There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities. ” - Gail Carr Feldman Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating. org
Carpe Diem "In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists. " — Eric Hoffer Los Angeles New York Palo Alto "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you did not do than those you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. Give yourself away to the sea of life. " — Mark Twain © 2005 Accelerating. org
8. Group Discussion: Promise and Problems
Скачать презентацию How to Be a Strategic Futurist An Evolutionary
b4e741c48c270741ffc20d716e8c5d95.ppt