How difficult compromise on sustainability policy really is Sarah Anderson Bren School of Environmental Science & Management UCSB
0 50 Yes? 60 ? ? ? 100 No? No Thinking about Environmental Politics: The Case of Climate Change Legislation Source: IPCC report
Passed House 219 -211
Where are the Senators?
Congress has Polarized since the 1960 s Source: Data provided by Keith Poole, graphs by Mo Fiorina.
Median Party LCV Scores
Counting the Votes Pro-CC Legislation 0 50 Yes? 44 Counts from Environment and Energy Daily Against CC Legislation 100 60 ? ? ? 21 No? No 34
Gang of 16 0 50 Yes? 60 ? ? ? 100 No? No • Party: Democrats • Ideology: Moderates • Constituency: – From rust belt states Wanted: Protection for their states’ economies
Standard Assumption Pro-CC Legislation 0 Yes 50 Yes? 60 ? ? ? MC Against CC Legislation 100 Bill No? SQ No
Voting No on a Compromise
How do legislators decide how to vote? Constituency: Ideas Ideology: Interests Party: Institutions
Achieving Policy Change: Three I’s • Ideas • Interests • Institutions
Ideas: Convincing the Constituency American Clean Energy and Security Act Cap and Trade Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act Pollution Reduction and Investment Program
More Moral Respondents don’t Support Compromise as much 120% 100% 80% Moral 60% Mid Not Moral 40% 20% 0% -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Difference in Support for Compromise vs. No-Compromise 5 6
Interests • Help for auto industry • Agricultural issues addressed • Funding for “clean coal”
Institutions
Institutions
Achieving Policy Change: Three I’s • Ideas • Interests • Institutions
Barbara Boxer 0 50 Yes? 60 ? ? ? 100 No? No • Party: Democrat • Ideology: 100 from LCV • Constituency: – “The Pew Charitable Trusts reports that 10, 000 new clean energy businesses were launched in California from 1998 to 2007. During that period, clean energy investments created more than 125, 000 jobs and generated jobs 15 percent faster than the California economy as a whole. “ Introduced the new legislation in the Senate
Orrin Hatch 0 50 Yes? 60 ? ? ? 100 No? No • Party: Republican • Ideology: 18 from LCV • Constituency: – Rural – Uses coal “The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association estimates that my state of Utah will be the hardest hit by a cap-and-trades scheme, raising our power rates by a whopping 70 percent. ”
Max Baucus 0 50 Yes? 60 ? ? ? 100 No? No • Party: Democrat • Ideology: 67 from LCV • Constituency: – 65% of MT electricity from coal – Purple state? Wants: provisions benefiting MT power cooperatives
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