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How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion? by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation Fund The Future of Automotive Energy: Fossil Fuels, Agro Fuels or Photovoltaic Cells hosted by SIKA & CHU Stockholm November 6, 2007
We face enormous challenges • • • Global Warming Peak Oil Deeply corrupted governments (USA) Industry Sell-Outs Well meaning environmentalists Green. Washers
We must develop enormous programs to meet these challenges. • The $21 Trillion already committed to carbon is destructive. • We need to overcome collective ignorance, and get a grip on the scale of the challenge.
Atmospheric CO 2
The fires are burning! Fires in Congo & Angola
Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse • Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35 days • Larger than Rhode Island • Totally baffled scientists • 1 down, 4 to go
Is this a workable response?
We must stop carbon build-up …
Peak Oil "Today I believe is the end of cheap energy. It's essential that we move away from fossil fuels as fast as possible. The boat is sinking and we have to do everything we can to plug the hole. ” Lord Ron Oxburgh, former chair of Shell
The Pretenders IEA, EIA, Shell, BP, Saudi Aramco, Lynch, Adelman, Yergin, Lovins www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Pretenders
The Pretenders “The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has peaked. ” The National Commission on Energy Policy www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Pretenders
The Hubbert Peak
UK Production and Net Exports
Top 5 Exporters: Production & Consumption
Deeply corrupted governments (USA) • In cahoots with corrupt industry, responsible to no-one • requiring both internal and external pressure to make change possible • Best pressures are technological advancements and market effectiveness
The All-New Don. Car! www. Oil. Crisis. com/Transport
In case you missed it…
1. Greenwashers Well-meaning environmentalists Academics who know but won’t tell
Green. Washers • Greenwashing, " a pejorative term derived from the term "whitewashing, " was coined by environmental activists to describe efforts by corporations to portray themselves as environmentally responsible in order to mask environmental wrongdoings. www. businessethics. ca/greenwashing/
Well meaning environmentalists • Too lazy or incompetent to do the math
Academics who know but won’t tell
F. Sherwood Rowland The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1995 Rowland theorized that manmade organic gases combine with solar radiation, releasing atoms of chlorine and chlorine monoxide destroying ozone. Rowland's research, published in Nature, 1974, initiated a scientific investigation. The National Academy of Sciences concurred in 1976, and in 1978 CFC-based aerosols were banned.
Richard Smalley “Think Tera. Watts” 2004 Smalley. Rice. edu → Our Energy Challenge
Scalability Solar Energy Input (Tera. Watts) Reflected to Space Immediately Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) Captured by Plant Photosynthesis Total Energy Used by Human Society 178, 000 53, 000 82, 000 40, 000 13 Total Energy Used by US Society 2. 5 Total Human Food Energy 0. 6
Renewable Energy Solar Wind 1. 2 x 105 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical 2 -4 TW extractable Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross Geothermal 12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable Biomass 5 -7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food Hydroelectric 4. 6 TW gross 1. 6 TW technically feasible 0. 9 TW economically feasible 0. 6 TW installed capacity
“All Strategies Are Essential” MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 30 U. S. LIQUID FUELS DEMAND MODERATE GLOBAL TRADE (NET IMPORTS) 15 EXPAND & DIVERSIFY U. S. LIQUID FUELS 2000 2010 YEAR Source: EIA Reference Case / NPC Global Oil and Gas study survey. Illustrative View 2020 2030
Internal Combustion … • Take 26. 5 Quads of oil • Turn 21. 2 into smoke • Use 5. 3 to run things … How incredibly wasteful!?
Two out-of-date ways to produce power 1. External Combustion (Boiling water) James Watt (1776) … including nuclear power, just a fancy boiler, inherently inefficient. 2. Internal Combustion (Burning oil) Rudolf Diesel (1893) … hybrid electrics are just variations, inherently inefficient, heavy, under-utilized.
There is no Silver Bullet. Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone Ranger chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. • Specific gravity of Pb = 11. 35 • Specific gravity of Ag = 10. 50 Ag Ag
There is no Ag Bullet. • Now I think I follow what you mean. Let’s find out why….
Burning biofuels perpetuates inefficiency • Internal combustion is the PROBLEM.
Waste no time going down Blind Alleys
Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful. ”
The Energy Cost of Energy 3% decline per year 100 Annu Net Energy Analysis 75 Cumulative new energy from investment al co ntribu tion f rom a lterna te en ergy Useful Lifetime 25 Years www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Modeling sourc e
The Energy Cost of Energy 75 60 85 Cumulative new energy from investment Available (net) Energy after Investment 100 Net Energy Analysis www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Modeling
Consequence of Delayed Investment Net Energy Production 120 begin investment before decline 100 80 60 40 Begin investment during decline 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Beyond. Oil
EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses natural gas • Low EROEI → EROEI = 3? Greenhouse gases
EROEI for Nuclear Plus … • Terrorism • Waste guarded for 10, 000+ years • Depletion → low grade ores → … How do we value a 1, 000+ year Greenhouse wasteland? gases EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric
EROEI for Hydrogen EROEI = ½ Am I missing something? !
EROEI for PV • EPBT: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 10 30 ~ electric
EROEI for Thin Film PV • EPBT: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 40 120 ~electric
EROEI for Wind • EPBT: 3 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 80 240 ~ electric
Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that. ” (1847 -1931) www. Thomas. Edison. com
Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production. ” 1996 www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Campbell
Hermann Scheer “Solar technologies are … potentially the most economic solution. ” 2004 www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Scheer
Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand www. ecotopia. com/Apollo 2
Personal Rapid Transit
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) www. Solar. Evolution. com/PRT
Freeway at Capacity
What is PRT? • Personal Rapid Transit also known as: – Pod cars – PAT (Personal automated Transit) • • • Created in 1970 s in Morgantown, WV for a college campus. Typically 1 -4 passengers Driverless Solar powered and electric drive Non-stop travel New service scheduled for 2008 – London Heathrow ULTra • Active prototypes – Sky. Tran in Orange county and Vectus in Sweden
PRT advantages 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Faster average speed than light rail, buses or cars Much safer than driving, more private than BART Lower energy usage than battery EV Driverless, enjoyable commute time Less embodied energy (lighter vehicles) Lower risk, no battery breakthrough or recycling needed No net fossil fuel emissions Balance grid load via PV panels (net zero) Quieter than cars Fewer vehicles needed Frees up roads for transit oriented development Cheaper than cars
Gordon Moore’s Law: the number of transistors on a chip doubles about every two years.
Solar. Evolution Solar on Rail www. Solar. Evolution. com/PRT
Solar PRT Capacity • PRT: Two people every second – 7, 200 passengers per hour – 72, 000 passengers per day • Rail: – About 8, 000 passengers per hour – 60, 000 passengers per day – Washington, DC ~ 41, 000 passmile / route-mile • Highway: 1. 2 average occupancy – 2400 persons per lane / hour
More with Less
Bucky Fuller “More with Less” 1966 www. bfi. org
Tonatiuh www. Ecotopia. com/Tonatiuh
Sky. Tran Solar Sky. Tran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations
Solar PRT • • 10 kw @ 100 mph 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval 360 kw needed in a mile stretch 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun 720 kw / mile 8. 3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity
Solar Sizing Calculations
Similar Solar Systems Exist
120, 000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth www. ecotopia. com/Apollo 2
Can it work in Sweden?
Can it work in Sweden?
Payback better than coastal USA!
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! Think Tera. Watts www. ecotopia. com/apollo 2
www. Solarevolution. com