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How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion? by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation Fund How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion? by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation Fund The Future of Automotive Energy: Fossil Fuels, Agro Fuels or Photovoltaic Cells hosted by SIKA & CHU Stockholm November 6, 2007

We face enormous challenges • • • Global Warming Peak Oil Deeply corrupted governments We face enormous challenges • • • Global Warming Peak Oil Deeply corrupted governments (USA) Industry Sell-Outs Well meaning environmentalists Green. Washers

We must develop enormous programs to meet these challenges. • The $21 Trillion already We must develop enormous programs to meet these challenges. • The $21 Trillion already committed to carbon is destructive. • We need to overcome collective ignorance, and get a grip on the scale of the challenge.

Global Warming Global Warming

Atmospheric CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2

The fires are burning! Fires in Congo & Angola The fires are burning! Fires in Congo & Angola

Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse • Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35 days • Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse • Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35 days • Larger than Rhode Island • Totally baffled scientists • 1 down, 4 to go

Is this a workable response? Is this a workable response?

We must stop carbon build-up … We must stop carbon build-up …

Peak Oil Peak Oil

Peak Oil Peak Oil "Today I believe is the end of cheap energy. It's essential that we move away from fossil fuels as fast as possible. The boat is sinking and we have to do everything we can to plug the hole. ” Lord Ron Oxburgh, former chair of Shell

The Pretenders IEA, EIA, Shell, BP, Saudi Aramco, Lynch, Adelman, Yergin, Lovins www. Hubbert. The Pretenders IEA, EIA, Shell, BP, Saudi Aramco, Lynch, Adelman, Yergin, Lovins www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Pretenders

The Pretenders “The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has The Pretenders “The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has peaked. ” The National Commission on Energy Policy www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Pretenders

The Hubbert Peak The Hubbert Peak

UK Production and Net Exports UK Production and Net Exports

Top 5 Exporters: Production & Consumption Top 5 Exporters: Production & Consumption

Deeply corrupted governments (USA) • In cahoots with corrupt industry, responsible to no-one • Deeply corrupted governments (USA) • In cahoots with corrupt industry, responsible to no-one • requiring both internal and external pressure to make change possible • Best pressures are technological advancements and market effectiveness

The All-New Don. Car! www. Oil. Crisis. com/Transport The All-New Don. Car! www. Oil. Crisis. com/Transport

Industry Sell-Outs Industry Sell-Outs

Industry Sell-Outs Industry Sell-Outs

In case you missed it… In case you missed it…

1. Greenwashers Well-meaning environmentalists Academics who know but won’t tell 1. Greenwashers Well-meaning environmentalists Academics who know but won’t tell

Green. Washers • Greenwashing, Green. Washers • Greenwashing, " a pejorative term derived from the term "whitewashing, " was coined by environmental activists to describe efforts by corporations to portray themselves as environmentally responsible in order to mask environmental wrongdoings. www. businessethics. ca/greenwashing/

Well meaning environmentalists • Too lazy or incompetent to do the math Well meaning environmentalists • Too lazy or incompetent to do the math

Academics who know but won’t tell Academics who know but won’t tell

F. Sherwood Rowland The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1995 Rowland theorized that manmade organic F. Sherwood Rowland The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1995 Rowland theorized that manmade organic gases combine with solar radiation, releasing atoms of chlorine and chlorine monoxide destroying ozone. Rowland's research, published in Nature, 1974, initiated a scientific investigation. The National Academy of Sciences concurred in 1976, and in 1978 CFC-based aerosols were banned.

Scalability Scalability

Richard Smalley “Think Tera. Watts” 2004 Smalley. Rice. edu → Our Energy Challenge Richard Smalley “Think Tera. Watts” 2004 Smalley. Rice. edu → Our Energy Challenge

Scalability Solar Energy Input (Tera. Watts) Reflected to Space Immediately Absorbed and Then Reflected Scalability Solar Energy Input (Tera. Watts) Reflected to Space Immediately Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) Captured by Plant Photosynthesis Total Energy Used by Human Society 178, 000 53, 000 82, 000 40, 000 13 Total Energy Used by US Society 2. 5 Total Human Food Energy 0. 6

Renewable Energy Solar Wind 1. 2 x 105 TW at Earth surface 600 TW Renewable Energy Solar Wind 1. 2 x 105 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical 2 -4 TW extractable Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross Geothermal 12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable Biomass 5 -7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food Hydroelectric 4. 6 TW gross 1. 6 TW technically feasible 0. 9 TW economically feasible 0. 6 TW installed capacity

“All Strategies Are Essential” MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 30 U. S. LIQUID FUELS DEMAND “All Strategies Are Essential” MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 30 U. S. LIQUID FUELS DEMAND MODERATE GLOBAL TRADE (NET IMPORTS) 15 EXPAND & DIVERSIFY U. S. LIQUID FUELS 2000 2010 YEAR Source: EIA Reference Case / NPC Global Oil and Gas study survey. Illustrative View 2020 2030

Internal Combustion … • Take 26. 5 Quads of oil • Turn 21. 2 Internal Combustion … • Take 26. 5 Quads of oil • Turn 21. 2 into smoke • Use 5. 3 to run things … How incredibly wasteful!?

Two out-of-date ways to produce power 1. External Combustion (Boiling water) James Watt (1776) Two out-of-date ways to produce power 1. External Combustion (Boiling water) James Watt (1776) … including nuclear power, just a fancy boiler, inherently inefficient. 2. Internal Combustion (Burning oil) Rudolf Diesel (1893) … hybrid electrics are just variations, inherently inefficient, heavy, under-utilized.

There is no Silver Bullet. Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone There is no Silver Bullet. Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone Ranger chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. • Specific gravity of Pb = 11. 35 • Specific gravity of Ag = 10. 50 Ag Ag

There is no Ag Bullet. • Now I think I follow what you mean. There is no Ag Bullet. • Now I think I follow what you mean. Let’s find out why….

Corn Ethanol Corn Ethanol

Burning biofuels perpetuates inefficiency • Internal combustion is the PROBLEM. Burning biofuels perpetuates inefficiency • Internal combustion is the PROBLEM.

Waste no time going down Blind Alleys Waste no time going down Blind Alleys

Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful. ”

The Energy Cost of Energy 3% decline per year 100 Annu Net Energy Analysis The Energy Cost of Energy 3% decline per year 100 Annu Net Energy Analysis 75 Cumulative new energy from investment al co ntribu tion f rom a lterna te en ergy Useful Lifetime 25 Years www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Modeling sourc e

The Energy Cost of Energy 75 60 85 Cumulative new energy from investment Available The Energy Cost of Energy 75 60 85 Cumulative new energy from investment Available (net) Energy after Investment 100 Net Energy Analysis www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Modeling

Consequence of Delayed Investment Net Energy Production 120 begin investment before decline 100 80 Consequence of Delayed Investment Net Energy Production 120 begin investment before decline 100 80 60 40 Begin investment during decline 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Beyond. Oil

EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses natural gas • Low EROEI → EROEI = 3? Greenhouse gases

EROEI for Nuclear Plus … • Terrorism • Waste guarded for 10, 000+ years EROEI for Nuclear Plus … • Terrorism • Waste guarded for 10, 000+ years • Depletion → low grade ores → … How do we value a 1, 000+ year Greenhouse wasteland? gases EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric

EROEI for Hydrogen EROEI = ½ Am I missing something? ! EROEI for Hydrogen EROEI = ½ Am I missing something? !

EROEI for PV • EPBT: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it EROEI for PV • EPBT: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 10 30 ~ electric

EROEI for Thin Film PV • EPBT: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROEI EROEI for Thin Film PV • EPBT: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 40 120 ~electric

EROEI for Wind • EPBT: 3 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 80 EROEI for Wind • EPBT: 3 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 80 240 ~ electric

Solar Energy Solar Energy

Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that. ” (1847 -1931) www. Thomas. Edison. com

Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production. ” Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production. ” 1996 www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Campbell

Hermann Scheer “Solar technologies are … potentially the most economic solution. ” 2004 www. Hermann Scheer “Solar technologies are … potentially the most economic solution. ” 2004 www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Scheer

Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand www. ecotopia. com/Apollo 2

Electro. Roof Electro. Roof

Personal Rapid Transit Personal Rapid Transit

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) www. Solar. Evolution. com/PRT Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) www. Solar. Evolution. com/PRT

Freeway at Capacity Freeway at Capacity

Vehicles Removed Vehicles Removed

PRT Passengers PRT Passengers

PRT System PRT System

What is PRT? • Personal Rapid Transit also known as: – Pod cars – What is PRT? • Personal Rapid Transit also known as: – Pod cars – PAT (Personal automated Transit) • • • Created in 1970 s in Morgantown, WV for a college campus. Typically 1 -4 passengers Driverless Solar powered and electric drive Non-stop travel New service scheduled for 2008 – London Heathrow ULTra • Active prototypes – Sky. Tran in Orange county and Vectus in Sweden

PRT advantages 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PRT advantages 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Faster average speed than light rail, buses or cars Much safer than driving, more private than BART Lower energy usage than battery EV Driverless, enjoyable commute time Less embodied energy (lighter vehicles) Lower risk, no battery breakthrough or recycling needed No net fossil fuel emissions Balance grid load via PV panels (net zero) Quieter than cars Fewer vehicles needed Frees up roads for transit oriented development Cheaper than cars

10 X 10 X

Gordon Moore’s Law: the number of transistors on a chip doubles about every two Gordon Moore’s Law: the number of transistors on a chip doubles about every two years.

Solar. Evolution Solar on Rail www. Solar. Evolution. com/PRT Solar. Evolution Solar on Rail www. Solar. Evolution. com/PRT

10 X 10 X

Solar PRT Capacity • PRT: Two people every second – 7, 200 passengers per Solar PRT Capacity • PRT: Two people every second – 7, 200 passengers per hour – 72, 000 passengers per day • Rail: – About 8, 000 passengers per hour – 60, 000 passengers per day – Washington, DC ~ 41, 000 passmile / route-mile • Highway: 1. 2 average occupancy – 2400 persons per lane / hour

More with Less More with Less

Bucky Fuller “More with Less” 1966 www. bfi. org Bucky Fuller “More with Less” 1966 www. bfi. org

Tonatiuh www. Ecotopia. com/Tonatiuh Tonatiuh www. Ecotopia. com/Tonatiuh

Sky. Tran Solar Sky. Tran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations Sky. Tran Solar Sky. Tran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations

Solar PRT • • 10 kw @ 100 mph 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second Solar PRT • • 10 kw @ 100 mph 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval 360 kw needed in a mile stretch 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun 720 kw / mile 8. 3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity

Solar Sizing Calculations Solar Sizing Calculations

Similar Solar Systems Exist Similar Solar Systems Exist

120, 000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth www. ecotopia. com/Apollo 2 120, 000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth www. ecotopia. com/Apollo 2

Can it work in Sweden? Can it work in Sweden?

Svensson Swenson Svensson Swenson

Can it work in Sweden? Can it work in Sweden?

Payback better than coastal USA! Payback better than coastal USA!

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! Think Tera. Watts www. ecotopia. com/apollo 2 Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! Think Tera. Watts www. ecotopia. com/apollo 2

www. Solarevolution. com www. Solarevolution. com