How Advocacy Programs Can and do Influence Public

How Advocacy Programs Can (and do) Influence Public Opinion Christopher Borick, Muhlenburg College Eric Plutzer, Penn State PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

What Determines Legislative Actions? • Institutional Characteristics (e. g. size, rules) • Member Characteristics (e. g. partisanship) • Interest Group Pressures (e. g. lobbying, contributions) • Public Opinion (e. g. concerns, policy preferences) PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

“'Whoever can change public opinion, can change the government. ” Abraham Lincoln, 1856 PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

When does public opinion matter most? • Breadth/Awareness (Most issues not very developed) • Saliency (Even when present importance may be limited) • Consensus (Broad support transcending partisan divides) PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

Can Advocacy Change Public Opinion? • YES! • Many examples of success. 1990 s Clinton Health Reform failure is a classic case. • Acceptance of climate change is another example of where campaigns have made a difference. PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

What kind of factors determine how public opinion can be changed? And when does it matter in terms of affecting legislative action? Some evidence and insight from Eric PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

Drilling down into the opinion policy connection: institutions, politicians and parties • Example 1 (from Berkman & Plutzer, Ten Thousand Democracies, 2005): • Per pupil K-12 spending follows public opinion • (but not exactly as you might guess!) PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

How public opinion impacts K-12 spending (Per pupil spending, FY 1995) PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

How public opinion impacts K-12 spending (Per pupil spending, FY 1995) Typical suburban school district without direct democracy $12, 000 $10, 000 $8, 000 Reform without direct democracy $6, 000 $4, 000 -3 -2 Citizens Prefer Less Spending -1 0 1 2 3 Citizens Prefer More Spending PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

How public opinion impacts K-12 spending (Per pupil spending, FY 1995) School districts with referenda spend more, but are no more responsive to opinion $12, 000 $10, 000 $8, 000 Reform without direct democracy $6, 000 Reform with direct democracy $4, 000 -3 -2 Citizens Prefer Less Spending -1 0 1 2 3 Citizens Prefer More Spending PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

How public opinion impacts K-12 spending (Per pupil spending, FY 1995) New England Town Meetings $12, 000 $10, 000 Reform without direct democracy $8, 000 Reform with direct democracy $6, 000 Town meetings $4, 000 -3 -2 Citizens Prefer Less Spending -1 0 1 2 3 Citizens Prefer More Spending PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

How public opinion impacts K-12 spending (Per pupil spending, FY 1995) Big city councils (which serve as school districts) are most responsive 12000 10000 Big cities 8000 Reform without direct democracy Reform with direct democracy 6000 Town meetings 4000 -3 -2 Citizens Prefer Less Spending -1 0 1 2 3 Citizens Prefer More Spending PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

Drilling down into the opinion policy connection: institutions, politicians and parties Example 2: Polarization, party discipline and fear of being “primaried” reduces the courage to follow public opinion. PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

Not too long ago, one in four members were centrists, who frequently voted with the opposition party. Source: Brookings. edu http: //www. brookings. edu/r esearch/interactives/2013/hi storical-house-ideolo PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

Today, party loyalty is up, centrist coalition has disappeared. Members focus on primaries, not general elections. Source: Brookings. edu http: //www. brookings. edu/r esearch/interactives/2013/hi storical-house-ideolo PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

How times have changed • The 1972 Higher Education Amendments ($19 Billion to create Pell Grants and National Direct Student Loans, among others). Republicans voted 89 -76 in favor Democrats voted 218 -180 in favor • The FY 2015 Budget resolution that placed a cap on Pell Grants and the elimination of Pell eligibility for part time students: Republicans voted 219 -12 in favor Democrats voted 0 -193 (to oppose) PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

Some Implications • For highly salient issues, polarization may make it necessary to focus efforts on party leadership rather than individual members. • For emerging issues, individual members may see benefit to being ahead of the public, and will welcome advice regarding what the public wants. • Grass roots campaigns will be most effective for issues that are not (yet) polarized. • BUT: Polling organizations do not routinely poll on new and noncontroversial issues. • All politicians care more about the opinions of voters than those of abstainers. Being able to talk about this subset of the public can be helpful. PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

Implications for State and Local Government • State and local government • “Professional” politicians will be most attuned to public opinion – it’s (literally) their job to know what the public wants and to balance public preferences with what is politically possible. • Part-time “amateur” politicians often live in a bubble, and mistake the opinions of their neighbors, business associates, and community leaders for public opinion. They may be open to persuasion, but national – or even state – polls might be dismissed as not applying to their constituency. Packing town hall meetings may be more persuasive than data. • Ambitious politicians will often care about the geography of the next step of their career more than they care about their current constituency. Knowing this can enhance advocacy campaigns. PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA

Thanks! QUESTIONS PHELAP 2016 • Harrisburg | University Park, PA