HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY HBS 2016 17 DPG MEETING DATE

HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY (HBS) 2016/17 DPG MEETING DATE: 9 MARCH, 2016 | SWEDISH EMBASSY, DAR ES SALAAM Tanzania

Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Introduction and Background Highlights from 2011/12 HBS Why HBS Lower Level Estimates Now? Sample Size Requirement Tentative Budget & Gap Proposed Timeframe Support Solicitation Conclusion 2

1. 0 Introduction and Background a) b) Tanzania developed: i. Poverty Monitoring Master Plan 2001 ii. MKUKUTAI Monitoring Master Plan 2006 iii. MKUKUTA II MMP 2011 PMMP & MMMPI was fully funded under pooled fund arrangement (Go. T&DPs) which enable planned surveys (survey calendar) to be undertaken, HBS being one of them. c) HBS: Information on domestic consumption expenditure on goods and services (best survey reach in Income Poverty Indicators). d) Tanzania Mainland has Six available HBS data series : q 1969 q 1976/77 q 1991/92 q 2000/01 (with regional estimates) q 2007 q 2011/12 Next 7 th HBS proposed: 2016/17 (targeting low level estimates) 3

2. 0 Highlights From 2011/12 HBS q The 2011/12 HBS received financial assistance from UNDP, EC, DFID, UNFPA and other Development Partners. Technical assistance was obtained from World Bank and DFID. a) Timely disbursements of committed funds made the survey to run smoothly. b) We acknowledge this support 4

… 2. 00 Note From 2011/12 HBS … 2. Highlights From 2011/12 HBS a) Technical Assistance (TA): was important in meeting national and international standards b) Involvement of Key Stakeholders at all levels made the survey to complete on schedule and improved the sense of ownership c) Noted that Poverty indicators are highly demanded by users at all levels (National, Regional, District/ constituency) & and also the National Assembly. 5

2. 1 Results From the 2011/12 HBS q. The Basic Needs Poverty Line is TZS. 36, 482 per adult equivalent per month and q Food poverty Line is TZS. 26, 085 per adult equivalent per month. The daily cost of the food poverty line is TZS. 858 per adult equivalent 6

. . 2. 1 Results of 2011/12 HBS Income Poverty Status (Percent) Basic Need Poverty Food Poverty Dar es Salaam Other Urban Rural Mainland 1. 0 8. 7 11. 3 9. 7 Dar es Salaam Other Urban Rural Mainland 4. 2 21. 7 33. 3 28. 2 7

…… 2. 1 Results of 2011/12 HBS Distribution of the Poor People 1. 5% Dar es Salaam 14. 4% Other urban areas 84. 1% of the poor in Tanzania live in rural areas 8

…. . 2. 1 Results of 2011/12 HBS Poverty Gap Index (Percent) Poverty Gap is an average shortfall of per capita consumption in the population relative to the poverty line, it identifies the depth of poverty. Poverty Gap Index (Percent) Dar es Salaam 0. 8 Other Urban Areas 5. 5 Rural Areas 7. 9 Mainland 6. 9 Population living in the Rural Areas is deeper in poverty – further away from poverty line. 9

EMERGING DEVELOPMENT ISSUES TO CONSIDER WHILE DECIDING ON THE DESIGNING OF THE 2016/17 TANZANIA MAINLAND HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY 10

3. Why HBS Lower Level Estimates Now? q Globally: Need to produce baseline data for the country to monitor Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) “No One Will be Left Behind” implies intensification of data needs traceable at the lowest level possible hence strengthening accountability. q Nationally: Baseline data to monitor FYDPII q Enrich poverty analysis and research agenda at local level New Statistical Act! q The NBS mandate has expanded under the New Statistical Act (Statistics Act, 2015) a) In Tanzania Planning happens at District level. Therefore, a strong need for data disaggregated at lower levels for policy and decision making processes 11

… 3. Why HBS Lower Level Estimates Now? b) Provides socio-economic indicators that are not easily obtained from other surveys c) To monitor implementation of national and international programs (SDGs, FYDP II) 12

4. 0 2016/17 HBS Sample Size Requirement a) The Government highly requires data from the lowest administrative unit (at least Regional Level Estimates) for policy and planning; and b) The SDGs, and FYDP require data that ensures accountability at the lower levels: q 2016/17 HBS is the base tool that will provide such information to the district officials for planning purposes. q 2016/17 HBS intends to design a sample that will provide estimates at regional level and obtain district estimates through poverty mapping and small Area Estimation. 13

5. Proposed Tentative Budget (Regional Estimates Exc. TA) BUDGET LINE Budget Cost (TZS) Budget Cost (USD) ADMINISTRATION 235, 200, 000 130, 667 REVIEW OF SURVEY INSTRUMENTS (PRE- & Pilot Test) 631, 240, 000 350, 689 PURCHASES AND PRINTING OF SURVEY INSTRUMENTS 2, 217, 911, 750 1, 232, 173 RECRUITMENT AND LISTING 1, 172, 210, 000 651, 228 TRAINING (TOT AND TOE) 3, 238, 230, 000 1, 799, 017 12, 526, 305, 393 6, 959, 059 DATA PROCESSING 337, 500, 000 187, 500 DATA ANALYSIS AND REPORTING 352, 085, 000 195, 603 INFORMATION, EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (IEC)/PUBLICITY 214, 800, 000 119, 333 DISSEMINATION 45, 175, 000 25, 097 EVALUATION 74, 500, 000 41, 389 21, 045, 157, 143 11, 691, 754 DATA COLLECTION/ENUMERATION - Main Survey TOTAL TENTATIVE BUDGET 14

5. Summary Tentative Budget Total budget: TZS 21, 045, 157, 143 Government Pledge: TZS 7, 000, 000 • World Bank Pledge: TZS 5, 462, 500, 000 • Total: TZS 12, 462, 500, 000 • GAP: TZS 8, 582, 657, 143 FINAL BUDGET TO BE DECIDED AFTER SAMPLE DESIGN 15

6. Proposed Timeframe No. of Months : 30 (Feb 2016 – July 2018) Phase 1: Planning and Logistics, including pretesting (12 months) • Phase 2: Field Work (12 months – October 2016 – Oct 2017) • Phase 3: Data processing & report production (15 months) • Phase 4: Dissemination and Evaluation 16

7. Support solicitation q From DPs and Key Stakeholders v Financial support to conduct surveys so we can meet users data needs q DPGs v. Continue support and collaboration in areas of financial; technical capacity building in mentoring and coaching to ensure no one is left behind! q From Government v. Govt is committed to build our capacity to better save our stakeholders; and v. To continue providing quality data that can be used to inform policies and decision making in social and economic programs at lower levels. 17

6. Areas of support Sample design, selection and weighting procedures Data Collection/ CAPI/Tablet Improve Capacity (TA) while Implementing 2016/17 HBS Data processing/ CAPI/Tablet Data analysis Small Area Estimation/Poverty Mapping 18

8. Conclusion Success of 2016/17 HBS Will Depend on: a) Funding v Strong commitment and financial investment from partners/stakeholders v Commitment from Government through PED b) Technical Assistance (Financial & HR) v In areas of Quality Assurance, Sampling, Data Processing/Analysis and Small Area Estimations c) Motivation and commitment of Government staff 19

THANK YOU 20