Скачать презентацию High resolution climate scenarios for hydrology in France Скачать презентацию High resolution climate scenarios for hydrology in France

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High resolution climate scenarios for hydrology in France CERFACS: Christian Pagé Laurent Terray Météo-France: High resolution climate scenarios for hydrology in France CERFACS: Christian Pagé Laurent Terray Météo-France: Philippe Dandin Pascale Delecluse Serge Planton Jean-Marc Moisselin Maryvonne Kerdoncuff Climate change information services for decision making and adaptation Workshop KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands - 10 -11 Sep 2009

Description Objective: Provide climate change scenarios data • Vulnerability studies of human activities and Description Objective: Provide climate change scenarios data • Vulnerability studies of human activities and environment • Effects of climate change on flood regimes and droughts, on water resource management and land use, . . . Motivations: Quite rapid increase in the number of data requests in the last few years Consequences: a more organized way of providing data to users is clearly needed • Re-focus research teams on their main activity CERFACS Météo-France 2/11

Example Use Case EP-Loire project example • Etablissement Public Loire (6 Regions, 16 Departments, Example Use Case EP-Loire project example • Etablissement Public Loire (6 Regions, 16 Departments, 18 cities, etc. ) • Effects of climate change on flood regimes and droughts in the Loire River Basin Stakeholders and basin managers Data request • Call of opportunity to the French scientific community • Let climate research groups choose and provide climate change scenarios • To be used by other research groups working in hydrology, sociology, . . . CERFACS Météo-France 3/11

Example: EP-Loire Use Case Production • Météo-France SAFRAN Regional re-analysis (1970 -2007) (7 daily Example: EP-Loire Use Case Production • Météo-France SAFRAN Regional re-analysis (1970 -2007) (7 daily or hourly parameters, France 8 -km resolution) • Dynamical/statistical downscaling: Daily Temperature & Precipitation, 50 -km • Weather-type statistical downscaling: 7 daily/hourly parameters, 8 -km • Several SRES scenarios; several models (ARPEGE and IPCC); 1950 -2100 What is provided to research groups: modelers and study teams • Data in ASCII format • Selection of data points over the Loire Basin, for present and future climate (1950 -2100) • Daily and hourly timestep (depending on specific modellers’ needs) Reports from research groups will be delivered to stakeholders CERFACS Météo-France 4/11

Example: EP-Loire Use Case Examples of output in reports for stakeholders Seine river flow Example: EP-Loire Use Case Examples of output in reports for stakeholders Seine river flow evolution uncertainties Monthly Mean of Seine river flow Obs Actual 2050 Actual 2100 2050 2100 Dec Jan Source: Re. XHy. SS project preliminary results Hydrological models France Past Droughts Source: Météo-France CLIMSEC project Courtesy of J. -P. Vidal 20 Mean duration (months) 5 CERFACS Météo-France 20 40 Area % of France 5/11

Current Status Data requests are mostly done by phone calls and emails • Data Current Status Data requests are mostly done by phone calls and emails • Data is mainly delivered through direct data transfer means (ftp, . . . ) • Extraction is not fully automated • Expertise is on a case by case evaluation • Meetings, round tables, email and phone support • Most of users have a great need in guidance (uncertainties) • Direct data is delivered to modelers & impact study teams • Stakeholders need reports and indicators Ø Several current initiatives to automate the data requests/delivery Ø Important: must have an expert team for guidance CERFACS Météo-France 6/11

Related initiatives DRIAS objective: Provide Access to French Regional Climate data and products for Related initiatives DRIAS objective: Provide Access to French Regional Climate data and products for Impact and Adaptation of our Society and Environment Co-Funding: French Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development Coordination: Météo-France (Climatology department) Partners • Météo-France GAME (Research Group for Meteorological Modelling) • IPSL (Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute) • CERFACS (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique) Project Duration: 2 years (Sep 2009 - Sep 2011) Aims: Give access to future climate data produced with • Several Greenhouse gas emission scenarios • Several Regional climate models • Several Downscaling methods • A Standard Format • Easy access • Expertise! Ø Quantify several uncertainty sources CERFACS Météo-France 7/11

Related initiatives DRIAS Interface will be based on Météo-France Climathèque • This system allows Related initiatives DRIAS Interface will be based on Météo-France Climathèque • This system allows access to different climate products and services • Generic system with internet up to date technologies • Easy to add new services Select the period Select the scale of colours Select the area Select the meteorological parameter Select the product format CERFACS Météo-France 8/11

Related initiatives DRIAS Products: many ideas, few realizations, no industrialisation Boxplot to show uncertainties Related initiatives DRIAS Products: many ideas, few realizations, no industrialisation Boxplot to show uncertainties Gaussen Climatic Diagram (Rainfall 2. Temperature Diagram) Drought CERFACS Météo-France Larger uncertainties for 2081 -2100 vs 2046 -2065 9/11

Related initiatives IS-ENES: Infra. Structure for the European Network for Earth System. IS-ENES will Related initiatives IS-ENES: Infra. Structure for the European Network for Earth System. IS-ENES will develop a virtual Earth System Modelling Resource Centre (v. ERC) • Funded by EU FP 7 • 20 partners, led by IPSL IS-ENES Global Climate Scenarios International Level DRIAS Downscaled Regional Scenarios France Regional Level WP 11/JRA 5: Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community • Provide a prototype for a web service interface • Bridge the gap • climate modelling community • climate impact community • decision makers Ø Develop adaptation and mitigation policies CERFACS Météo-France 10/11

Conclusions 1. Organisation of response to climate scenarios requests is taking shape Ø More Conclusions 1. Organisation of response to climate scenarios requests is taking shape Ø More collaboration between actors and requests at the France national level 2. Expertise teams for stakeholders and modellers is essential Ø Free climate products access without an expertise team is a bad idea Ø Need for contacts after products delivery should not be underestimated 3. Some European collaboration is taking place within the IS-ENES project Questions? CERFACS Météo-France 11/11