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Headquarters U. S. Air Force Fly – Fight – Win Space Weather Workshop 2008 Headquarters U. S. Air Force Fly – Fight – Win Space Weather Workshop 2008 AF/A 3 O-W

Overview Bottom Line Up Front n Space Weather Impacts n Current Status n Space Overview Bottom Line Up Front n Space Weather Impacts n Current Status n Space Weather Sensors & Plan n Personnel and Training n Bottom Line n Air Force working with National Partners to implement a shared course of action to provide timely & actionable space weather support Fly - Fight - Win

Bottom Line Up Front n AF focusing on improvements in Space Environment mission area Bottom Line Up Front n AF focusing on improvements in Space Environment mission area AFSPC, AF/A 3 O-S/W, and AF Weather Agency (AFWA) working in partnership to address needs across Do. D n Must fully exploit space wx data from existing infrastructure and national/international partners n Formalize space weather training and professional development n n A 3 O-W published initial Space Wx Implementation Plan in Mar 08 n Next Step: AFSPC, A 3 O-W, A 3 O-S, 14 AF, AFWA, and National Partners conduct IPT to develop end-to-end roadmap for way ahead Fly - Fight - Win

BLUF: Space Wx Capability Circa 2017 with investment in DMSP, ACE, SOHO, SOON, and BLUF: Space Wx Capability Circa 2017 with investment in DMSP, ACE, SOHO, SOON, and RSTN Follow-ons Space-Based Measurement 1 DMSP/SES* 2 ACE/SOHO FO 3 GOES 4 GPS 5 DSP 6 NPOESS 7 C/NOFS Ionospheric Electrons (60%) 1, 2, 7 1 SOON/ISOON 2 RSTN/RSTN II 3 NEXION 4 TEC 5 SCINDA 6 Geomag Observing Capability Forecasting Capability (Threshold SSA) Space Weather Parameter (Objective SSA) Geolocation Ionospheric Disturbances (60%) 1, 2, 7 Communications Energetic Particles (90%) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Satellite Ops Radiation & Disturbances (75%) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Space Tracking Ionospheric Disturbances (60%) 1, 2, 7 Good ( >75%) Ground-Based Measurement Example Mission Supported Navigation Moderate (50 -75%) Marginal (25 -50%) Example Mission Supported Little or None (0 -25%) Ionospheric Electrons (60%) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Ionospheric Disturbances (60%) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Energetic Particles (25%) 1, 2, 6 Geolocation Communications Satellite Ops Radiation & Disturbances (40%) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Space Tracking Ionospheric Disturbances (50%) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Navigation *SES – Space Environment Sensors as payload on other satellites Fly - Fight - Win Forecasting Capability (Threshold SSA) Space Weather Parameter Observing Capability (Objective SSA)

Space Weather Operations 2 WS/WXZ Space Wx Product Solar Cycle 24 Halloween storms 2003 Space Weather Operations 2 WS/WXZ Space Wx Product Solar Cycle 24 Halloween storms 2003 Fly - Fight - Win

Importance of Environment Space Wx has impacts across the Do. D – Satellite Ops, Importance of Environment Space Wx has impacts across the Do. D – Satellite Ops, GPS users, comms/radars, etc. n Space environment information critical n n Attribution — determine cause of anomaly Environment considered in all anomaly investigations n Provides information necessary to determine appropriate response n Mitigation — plan around predicted problems n Exploitation — information superiority n n Fully understand adjust to environmental conditions Presidential Policy directly supports needed improvements in current capability for the nation Fly - Fight - Win

Space Weather Warfighter Impacts Space Capability Joint Effect Impacted Cause Onset Duration Measured By Space Weather Warfighter Impacts Space Capability Joint Effect Impacted Cause Onset Duration Measured By Forecast Using X-Rays, EUV, Radio Bursts Comms on the Move; Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR); Missile Warhead Detection/Tracking/ Intercept; Precision Engagement; Intelligence; Spacecraft anomaly assessment; Attack Assessment Solar Flare Immediate Minutes to Hours GOES, Solar Observatories, SOHO Forecaster using rules-ofthumb and statistical data, SWAFS Scintillation Comms on the Move; Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR); Missile Warhead Detection/Tracking/ Intercept; Precision Engagement Nightfall (Equatorial) Sunset Normally 02 L, Sometimes Sunrise Ionosondes, SCINDA, LEO plasma monitors (DMSP, etc) Ionospheric models, SCINDA, SWAFS/GAIM Proton Events Comms on the Move; Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR); Missile Warhead Detection/Tracking/ Intercept; Precision Engagement; Intelligence; Spacecraft anomaly assessment; Attack Assessment Solar Flare 30 Min to several hours Hours to Days GOES, Solar Observatories, ACE, SOHO, Energetic Particle Sensors on various satellites Forecaster using rules-ofthumb and statistical data, SWAFS Geomagnetic Storms Comms on the Move; Solar Flare, Intelligence, Surveillance and High Speed Reconnaissance (ISR); Missile Solar Wind Warhead Detection/Tracking/ Intercept; Precision Engagement; Intelligence; Spacecraft anomaly assessment; Attack Assessment; Power Grid Failures Fly - Fight 2 -5 Days Hours to Days Magnetometers ACE, Other Satellite Magnetometers Solar Observatories SOHO, Solar wind models, SWAFS - Win

Space Weather Supporting The Warfighter AF uses space weather data from ground- and space-based Space Weather Supporting The Warfighter AF uses space weather data from ground- and space-based sensors from AF, NOAA, NASA, and other agency platforms n Sensors ACE RSTN USGS Magnetometers GOES DISS GPS TEC SOON DMSP/NPOESS AF provides space environmental data, analyses, forecasts, and critical strategic-level products to Do. D warfighters! Ionospheric Analyses & 24 hour Forecasts n HF communications and geolocation error analysis n Auroral impact to ops … and more n Fly - Fight - Win

Current Space Weather Sensors ACE – Provides ~1 hr warning for storming SOHO – Current Space Weather Sensors ACE – Provides ~1 hr warning for storming SOHO – Imagery – detects Coronal Mass Ejections GOES – Energetic particles, X-Ray flux and X-Ray images POES/DMSP – LEO space wx ionospheric sensors SEON – Ground-based solar observatories DISS – Ground-based ionospheric measurements TEC – GPS-derived ionospheric measurements } Fly - Fight - Win

Current Status Space-Based Space Wx Sensors n DMSP sunset program, NPOESS Nunn-Mc. Curdy restructure Current Status Space-Based Space Wx Sensors n DMSP sunset program, NPOESS Nunn-Mc. Curdy restructure demanifested space environment sensors -- gap in ~2016 n ACE/SOHO (Advanced Composition Explorer / Solar and Heliospheric Observation) no planned replacement ~ 2016 -2018 n Ground-Based Space Wx Sensors n Current sensors need replacement n n AFWA & SMC working SLEP (System Lifecycle Extension Program) and modernization n Using some R&D sensors (SCINDA & TEC) for ops – will continue to support Space Environment Models n AFWA making progress … working to add funding in FY 08 -15 n AFRL R&D progressing, working funding for transition programs n System Effects Products n AFSPC funding ops software capability; Additional R&D funding needed n Fly - Fight - Win

Space Weather Roadmap Must prepare for next Solar Max 2011 -12 n Must increase Space Weather Roadmap Must prepare for next Solar Max 2011 -12 n Must increase sampling of space environment n Several space weather sensors cut from NPOESS n NASA solar observing satellites (ACE/SOHO) beyond planned life with no replacements n Only a few sensors in radiation belts and at geosynchronous orbit n Upgrade ground-based space weather observing capabilities … current sensors becoming unsupportable n Optical- and radio-telescopes & ionospheric sites n Improve space weather analysis, forecasting, and exploitation … leading to system effects capabilities n Convene IPT to further refine endto-end implementation plans … Follow on to Space Wx Architecture Mtg on 16 -18 Apr 08 • • Increased Wx Program Line investment Does not include AFSPC POM increases Plan focused on accelerated delivery of needed capabilities Fly - Fight - Win

NPOESS De-manifested: Do. D Space Env Capabilities TED DPU MEPED Space Environment Monitor (SEM) NPOESS De-manifested: Do. D Space Env Capabilities TED DPU MEPED Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Magnetometer Thermal Plasma Sensor Back Side Auroral Particle Detector DMSP NPOESS Department of Commerce SEM (particle sensor) is the only Post-Nunn-Mc. Curdy NPOESS SWx sensor Fly Ultraviolet Disc Imager - Fight - Win Ultraviolet Limb Imager

Space-Based Sensor Options NPOESS Mitigation n Space Environmental Sensors proposed by AFSPC Looking to Space-Based Sensor Options NPOESS Mitigation n Space Environmental Sensors proposed by AFSPC Looking to buy sensors for rides-of-opportunity n Currently working plan and support for funding n Currently enhancing NPOESS space environment monitor (SEM-N ) n Communications/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) may provide some support n Exploit current satellite systems space wx observing capabilities n GPS and other satellites Advocacy with NOAA, NASA, others (FAA NEXGEN may be viable) Need partnerships to collect from the rest of the space domain n Need ACE replacement n FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 NPOESS C 1 Launch DMSP Space Weather Sensors NPOESS SEM-N Space Environmental Sensors (NPOESS mitigation) Fly - Fight - Win FY 15 FY 17

Ground Sensor Upgrades Ground Based Space Wx Sensors (Ionosphere) Upgrading aging sensor hardware to Ground Sensor Upgrades Ground Based Space Wx Sensors (Ionosphere) Upgrading aging sensor hardware to meet requirements n Begin Ionosphere sensor improvements in FY 08 (NEXION replaces DISS) n Leverage additional ionosondes fielded by National Science Foundation, NOAA, and international partners (From ~30 currently to more than 70) n Continue to use NASA JPL Total Electron Content (TEC) data n FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 DISS (Digital Ionospheric Sounding System) NEXION (Next generation Ionosonde) Begin acquisition NSF Partnerships – Research initiatives within the Atmospheric Sciences Division & fielding Fly - Fight - Win FY 13 Finish fielding X FY 14 FY 15

Ground Sensor Upgrades (cont’d) Ground Based Space Wx Sensors (Solar Observing) n n n Ground Sensor Upgrades (cont’d) Ground Based Space Wx Sensors (Solar Observing) n n n FY 08 Begin optical solar sensor upgrade in FY 08 (ISOON replaces SOON) … Complete SLEP of SOON in FY 09 for Solar Max Upgrade components of radio solar sensors to ensure they are operational for solar max (RSTN SLEP) Begin radio solar sensor R&D in FY 09 (RSTN replacement) Collocate and automated solar observing sites Leverage telescope networks like NSF GONG and SOLIS to improve capabilities and reduce costs (AFSO-21 initiative) FY 09 FY 10 SOON (Solar Optical Observing Network) Improved SOON Startup Production Prototype FY 11 ? Site Install Holloman FY 12 FY 13 ? ? Site Install Learmonth Site Install San Vito FY 14 FY 15 ? Site Install TBD NSF Partnerships – Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG) and Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) RSTN (Radio Solar Telescope Network) RSTN Replacement R&D RSTN SLEP RSTN Replacement Development, Production, and Fielding Fly - Fight - Win

Ground-Based Space Wx Sensor Opportunities NSF Atmospheric Sciences (ATM) National Science Foundation (NSF) SOLIS Ground-Based Space Wx Sensor Opportunities NSF Atmospheric Sciences (ATM) National Science Foundation (NSF) SOLIS GONG Potential for cost sharing of capability Fly - Fight - Win

Continue to Partner with NASA, AFRL, NWS & USGS TEC fundamental ionospheric parameter; NASA Continue to Partner with NASA, AFRL, NWS & USGS TEC fundamental ionospheric parameter; NASA JPL provides worldwide network n SCINDA (Scintillation Network Decision Aid) only source of real-time ionospheric scintillation data n Magnetometer data essential to space weather products; feeds NORAD space tracking algorithms n ACE Data enables ~ 1 hour forecasts for geomagnetic storming n Fly - Fight - Win

Modeling and Exploitation S/W Upgrades Modeling/Exploitation POM investments accelerate space wx analysis, forecasts & Modeling and Exploitation S/W Upgrades Modeling/Exploitation POM investments accelerate space wx analysis, forecasts & exploitation capabilities … important to enhance capabilities n A 3 O-W increasing investment in Space Weather Analysis and Forecast System (SWAFS) across FY 08 -15 n AFSPC funding SSA Environmental Effects Fusion System (SEEFS) to provide JSp. OC tool set to support ops assessments n Investments provide Models, Apps, Graphics, Data Fusion, & Decision Aids to improve operational space weather support n FY 08 SSUSI GAIM SWAFS FY 09 GUVI GAIM SSULI GAIM FY 10 Spiral 2 IOC SEEFS Integration FY 11 COSMIC GAIM Legacy programs FY 12 HAF GAIM FY 13 Full Physics GAIM FY 14 FY 15 South Atlantic Anomaly Model Physics-based Solar Wind Model (Space Wx Analysis & Forecast Sys) JMSESS Delivery Radiation Dosage, Data-Driven Radiation Belt SWAFS Plus-up. SEEFS (SSA Environmental Effects Fusion Sys) Begin Integration (SWAFS/JSp. OC) Integration Complete Additional System Impact Models Fly - Fight - Win Additional System Impact Models

Space Wx Training & Personnel Initiatives Space Weather Training Formalize internal AFWA space weather Space Wx Training & Personnel Initiatives Space Weather Training Formalize internal AFWA space weather training course – already available to outside agencies n Continue to provide space weather overview during Weather initial skills training n Personnel Revitalize Advance Academic Degree program for space weather modeling and exploitation n Fill key space weather position with Advanced Academic Degree program graduates n Space weather officers/enlisted attend portions of space professional development n Fly - Fight - Win

Bottom Line n n n Accelerating actions to prepare for solar max AFSPC, AF/A Bottom Line n n n Accelerating actions to prepare for solar max AFSPC, AF/A 3 O-S/W, and AFWA convene IPT to determine way forward … will invite National Partners Significant investment in ground-based sensor, modeling and exploitation capabilities … will partner with NSF and others AFSPC working initiative for space-based capabilities … must partner with NOAA, NASA, and others to improve capabilities Ensure AF space wx expertise available in the future We Are Focused on Improving Space Weather Capabilities Fly - Fight - Win

Headquarters U. S. Air Force Fly – Fight – Win Questions? Headquarters U. S. Air Force Fly – Fight – Win Questions?

Solar Activity Space Situational Awareness A 3 O-W Mission View ACE Orbital Drag Spacecraft Solar Activity Space Situational Awareness A 3 O-W Mission View ACE Orbital Drag Spacecraft Charging Ionosphere Communication/GPS Scintillation Global Strike Flight Hazards DISS F 2 T 2 EA Surveillance/Recon RSTN Air Mobility CAS Acquisition/ Lock-on Red Forces SAM/SCUD Aurora Battle Damage Assessment Clouds/ Precipitation Enemy Airfield Air Forces Ground Forces SOON Fly - Fight - Win

Space-Based Sensor Options Communications/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) Space Segment C/NOFS Instrument Payload • Space-Based Sensor Options Communications/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) Space Segment C/NOFS Instrument Payload • Dedicated equatorial satellite for predicting scintillation events • Electric Field Instrument (VEFI) • Real time data downlink forecasting system outages • Neutral Wind Meter (NWM) • Pegasus launch 16 Apr 08 • RF Beacon (CERTO) • Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP) • Ion Velocity Meter (IVM) • GPS Occultation Receiver (CORISS) Instrument Development Teams: AFRL/VS, NRL, NASA/GSFC, Aerospace, Univ. of Texas at Dallas Ground Segment • SCINDA ground-based scintillation sensor network • Real-time forecast modeling • Data center ops for generation/ dissemination of outage maps • ACTD Demo / Outage map employment by warfighters Fly - Fight - Win