GSAL Container Market outlook 26 February 2011 Abridged version Alfred Cheung Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 1
GSAL Global container handling volume • Market – Likely to be > 600 Mteu – in near future • Traceability – Movement – Inventory – Availability • Saving – 5 to 10% saving – Handling / shifting – Planning & marshalling • Networking – User accessibility – Global coverage – Security & safety Unit in Mteu Special edition 2011 for City University of HK Capacity deployment focused onto FE-EUR 26% and FE-NAMR 18% * Source: Alphaliner 2010 & in-house data 2
GSAL Estimation of Global Container fleet in 2010 • Global fleet • 27. 25 M TEU • 93% dry boxes • 7% reefer boxes • Global terminal handling volume • 545 M TEU • 11. 6% growth rate projection in 2010 • Average handling ratio / TEU = 20 • Market potential • Reefer boxes of 1. 7 M TEU • Average TAT 6 • Total market potential > 10 M TEU Special edition 2011 for City University Source: Alphaliner + In-house data of HK (Demand > supply by 2% in 2010 and continues to be strong in 2 h 2010)3
GSAL Lifting estimated by Clarkson to be 565 M TEU in 2010 • Container shipping demand – Outpaces supply by 2% in 2010 – Continues to be strong in 2 H 2010 – Asia – Europe trade with strongest growth to reach 17. 2 M TEU, or 13. 1% increase – Transatlantic traffic expects to grow by 12% to 5. 6 M TEU – Transpacific trade with steady growth of 10. 3% to 20. 3 M TEU – North – South trade projects to rise 9. 2% to 20. 6 M TEU – Other trades including intra-regional & other routes forecasting to grow by 11. 4% to 56. 5 M TEU Special edition 2011 for City University of HK Source: Clarkson + in-house data 4
GSAL Average 5 year rental per diem rate of reefer new build in US$ Stable per diem rates as from 2007 Special edition 2011 for City University of HK Source : in-house data 5
Active container ship capacity evolution : Jan 2010 to Jan 2011 GSAL • Utilization levels fall as active capacity grew by 21% over past 12 months. • Increased from 11. 55 Mteu in Jan 2010 to 13. 94 Mteu in Jan 2011. • A combined effect of 1. 39 Mteu new ships delivered in 2010 and activation of 1. 18 Mteu of idle capacity. • Total idled fleet has decreased from 1. 51 Mteu in Jan 2010 to 326, 000 teu. • Scrapping and deletions has dropped from 381, 000 teu in 2009 to 184, 000 teu in 2010. Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 6
Reefer Logistics Information Chain GSAL e ne ig s on C Forwarder Ba nk Minimize costs Eliminate waste Reduce processing time /T ra de r Shipper Transparency & Convenience Quality & Compliance Safety & Security E friendly & Energy saving TML / Depot RTLS & RFID Applications En du se r ide rov g. P r QRT / Customs Special edition 2011 for City University of HK Lo Source: in-house model 7
GSAL Top 10 GDP countries expressed in trillion $ with forecast up to 2050 Source : Goldman Sachs Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 8
GSAL Thank you for listening! Alfred Cheung Email: Office : alfred@greensocietyassociation. com Personal : alfredcheungshuwing@gmail. com Mobile: +81 70 6947 5755 Japan Mobile: +852 9182 7600 Hong Kong Skype ID: alfredcheungshuwing Disclaimer This presentation contains theories and forward looking statements which reflect writer’s current forecast and estimates. The forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual result to be different from those described in the forward statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include change of economic conditions, fluctuation in foreign exchange, new technology applications, market competition and regulatory developments. The writer assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions, or damages caused by or from the use of the information herein. Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 9
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