Green Growth Powering Innovation Daniel M Kammen Co-Director

Green Growth: Powering Innovation Daniel M. Kammen Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the Environment Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy Department of Nuclear Engineering University of California, Berkeley Materials online at: http: //rael. berkeley. edu UCLA/Lake Arrowhead Summit, October 15, 2007 Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Global Energy Supply by Fuel A massive carbon Baseline & inertia Sufficient opportunities exist Fastest growth, smallest sectors Fossil Energy Other Energy Wind, Solar & Biofuels MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr. MBDOE 2000 - 2030 1. 6% 8. 8% Wind & Solar 20. 5% 1. 6% Biofuels 7. 2% 2. 2% 1. 6% Other Coal Gas Oil Hydro/Geo 1. 7% 1. 3% 1. 4% Nuclear Biomass / Other Solar 8. 4% Wind 1. 0% Biofuels Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu 12. 5% 7. 2%

Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards 24 states + DC, and counting MN: 10% by 2015 Goal + Xcel mandate of 1, 125 MW wind by 2010 *WA: 15% by 2020 MT: 15% by 2015 VT: RE meets load growth by 2012 ME: 30% by 2000; 10% by 2017 goal - new RE WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase OR: 25% by 2025 RI: 15% by 2020 CT: 10% by 2010 IA: 105 MW CA: 20% by 2010 NV: 20% by 2015 CO: 10% by 2015 NY: 24% by 2013 IL: 8% by 2013 NJ: 22. 5% by 2021 PA: 18%¹ by 2020 *MD: 7. 5% by 2019 AZ: 15% by 2025 *NM: 10% by 2011 *DE: 10% by 2019 DC: 11% by 2022 TX: 5, 880 MW by 2015 HI: 20% by 2020 State RPS State Goal * Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewables PA: 8% Tier I (renewables) Solar water heating eligible Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Green job creation Federal + state RPS yields +348, 000 jobs in 2025 plus Federal RPS Nevada Other 18 states with an RPS Illinois Texas New York Pennsylvania California Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 36 20 Multijunction Concentrators Three-junction (2 -terminal, monolithic) Two-junction (2 -terminal, monolithic) Crystalline Si Cells Single crystal Multicrystalline Thin Film Technologies Cu(In, Ga)Se 2 Spire Cd. Te Amorphous Si: H Westing-ARCO (stabilized) 16 Emerging PV Dye cells 32 Efficiency (%) 28 24 house No. Carolina State University Organic cells Boeing 12 (various technologies) Masushita 8 Monosolar Kodak Boeing 4 RCA 0 1975 University RCA of Maine RCA RCA 1980 Solarex Spectrolab NREL Spire NREL UNSW Lausanne United Solar Photon Energy Solarex Groningen. Siemens Princeton University of Lausanne UCSB Kodak 1985 NREL/ Spectrolab NREL Cu(In, Ga)Se 2 14 x concentration Georgia Tech UNSW NREL Georgia Tech Sharp NREL Varian NREL University NREL So. Florida NREL Euro-CIS ARCO Boeing United Solar AMETEK University of UNSW Stanford Boeing RCA Japan Energy 1990 2005 Annual PV Installations Average Cost for Residential System Average Cost Reduction from 99 -04 California 50 MW $8. 8/Wac 5. 2%/year 1995 Cambridge University Linz University Berkeley Linz 2000 Japan 290 MW $7. 4/Wac 8. 9%/year Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu 2005

Roll on PV cells. Solar photovoltaic installations of thin film cells, in Germany Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Green job creation More renewables = more jobs Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Plug In Partners / e. g. Cal. Cars. org

PHEV Off-Peak Electricity Demand (One million PHEVS in CA) • • Model: IPM Additional load from PHEVs is small PHEVs could be charged mostly via base-load filling during evenings and nights, when electricity costs are low Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Study reviews: • 13 studies of job creation Report available at: • 3 - 5 times More jobs per dollar invested in the renewables sector than in fossil fuels Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

An Alternative Fuel is Not Necessarily a Low-Carbon Fuel, but it can be Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Land Required to Satisfy Current U. S. Mobility Demand CRP Land (30 MM) U. S. Cropland (400 MM) Status quo 36 gal Geq/ton, current mpg, no ag. integration, 5 tons/acre*yr Advanced processing 91 gal Geq/ton Vehicle efficiency 2. 5 X↑ Biomass yield 2. 5 X↑ 165 65 1, 030 410 LDV HDV Agricultural integration I. Soy switchgrass or large biomass soy -10 -50 II. Corn stover (72%) Early-cut switchgrass produces more feed protein/acre than soy; similar benefits from “large biomass soy” Feasibility of stover utilization enhanced by rotation Winter cover crops, other residues, increased productivity of food crops, increased production on under-utilized land… III. Other 0 200 400 600 800 1, 000 New Land Required (million acres) 1, 200 U. S. mobility demand, the largest per capita in the world, could be met from land now used forand Appropriate Energy Laboratory - production (L. Lynd) agriculture while maintaining food rael. berkeley. edu Renewable

Miscanthus Late Summer Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Winter Stand Recovered After Ice-Storm Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards 24 states + DC, and counting MN: 10% by 2015 Goal + Xcel mandate of 1, 125 MW wind by 2010 *WA: 15% by 2020 MT: 15% by 2015 VT: RE meets load growth by 2012 ME: 30% by 2000; 10% by 2017 goal - new RE WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase OR: 25% by 2025 RI: 15% by 2020 CT: 10% by 2010 IA: 105 MW CA: 20% by 2010 NV: 20% by 2015 CO: 10% by 2015 NY: 24% by 2013 IL: 8% by 2013 NJ: 22. 5% by 2021 PA: 18%¹ by 2020 *MD: 7. 5% by 2019 AZ: 15% by 2025 *NM: 10% by 2011 *DE: 10% by 2019 DC: 11% by 2022 TX: 5, 880 MW by 2015 HI: 20% by 2020 State RPS State Goal * Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewables PA: 8% Tier I (renewables) Solar water heating eligible Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Solar & Distributed Generation Provisions in RPS Policies WA: double credit for DG NY: 0. 1542% customer-sited by 2013 NV: 1% solar by 2015; 2. 4 to 2. 45 multiplier for PV CA: 3, 000 MW or more via SB 1 & Million solar roofs NJ: 2. 12% solar electric by 2021 PA: 0. 5% solar PV by 2020 CO: 0. 4% solar electric by 2015 DE: triple credit for solar electric MD: double credit for solar electric DC: 0. 386% solar electric by 2022 AZ: 4. 5% DG by 2025 NM: triple credit for solar electric TX: 500 MW non-wind DG: Distributed Generation Solar water heating counts towards solar set-aside Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004 Margolis & Kammen, Science, 1999 Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Patents and R&D Funding Correlated Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget, ” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88. And Nemet, dissertation, 2007

If you think US public sector energy R&D funding is doing poorly … Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget, ” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88. Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu

Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U. S. Household (LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO 2 equivalent gases 56% 44% public trans. airlines Indirect Direct Auto services Auto manufacturing other fuels natural gas Gasoline electricity water & sewage Financing public trans. Air travel Construction Other fuels Natural gas cereals Alcohol & tobacco Dairy Snack food Gasoline Electricity Fruit & veg. Eating out Total furniture. cleaning supplies. entertainment. Household equip. Meat Renewable Transportation and Appropriate Housing Clothing education giving healthcare Energy Laboratory Goods - rael. berkeley. edu Food Services

Global CO 2 Abatement Opportunities Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael. berkeley. edu