Green Energy from Innovation to a Vibrant Industry Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Largest European solar energy research institute >930 members of staff (incl. students) Areas of business: 10% basic financing 90% contract research 40% industry, 60% public € 56 M total budget (‘ 09) > 10% p. a. growth rate • Photovoltaics • Solar Thermal Technologies • Renewable Power Generation • Energy-Efficient Buildings and Technical Building Components • Applied Optics and Functional Surfaces • Hydrogen Technology Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Fraunhofer Alliance Energy Strong German research network of 14 institutes in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies ISIT IWES IFF UMSICHT IWES IITB/AST IKTS n Partnership of Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems CSE in Boston with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA Customer’s benefits ISC IISB, IIS ISI ICT n Innovative and intelligent energy concepts IBP, IGB ISE IBP www. energy. fraunhofer. de © Fraunhofer ISE n New technologies for energy and efficiency n Strengthened competitiveness and success in the market Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010
We are Facing the Urgent Challenge of a Drastic Change in our Global Energy System n Protection of the foundation of life as-we-know-it by fast reduction of CO 2 emissions n Limitation of fossil energy leads to increasing energy prices n Reduction of geopolitical conflict potential based on fossil fuels Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
The Transformation into a Green Energy Future Requires: n Increased energy efficiency in buildings, transport (e -mobility) and production n Rapid development of all renewable energies, especially wind, PV, ST, hydro, geothermal and biomass towards a 100% renewable energy future n Expansion of the electricity grid for long-distance transport and smart consumers n My suggestion for climate discussion: Replace CO 2 reduction targets by Renewable Energy introduction targets! Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Exemplary Path, Global Primary Energy Consumption EJ/a TW 50 Geothermal Other Renewables Solarthermal (Heat only) Solar Electricity (PV und solarthermal) Wind Biomass (modern) Biomass (traditional) Hydropower Nuclear Energy Gas Coal Oil 1400 40 1000 20 600 10 2000 Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www. wbgu. de © Fraunhofer ISE 30 2020 Year 2040 2100 0 Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010
Annual Installation of PV Modules (worldwide) 2009: 6, 43 GWp Actual Shipments Projection (2003) 2003: 600 MWp Sources: 2000 -2003 Strategies Unlimited, 2006 EPIA “solar generation”, 2007 LBBW Report, 2010 Solar. Buzz Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
![Learning Curve of Crystalline Si PV Module Prices [€/Wp] hcell [%] = 100 10](https://present5.com/presentation/973968529e88ea889528308b364d28b3/image-8.jpg "Learning Curve of Crystalline Si PV Module Prices [€/Wp] hcell [%] = 100 10")
Learning Curve of Crystalline Si PV Module Prices [€/Wp] hcell [%] = 100 10 15 18 20 slope: 22% decrease for each doubling of installed capacity 1980 1990 2000 10 2004 2007 (25%) 2010 2020 (30%) 1 d [µm] = 400 10 -4 10 -3 10 -2 300 10 -1 1 200 10 102 50 103 Installed Peak Power (cumulated) [GWp] Slide courtesy of G. Willeke © Fraunhofer ISE Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010
From mg-Si to Ultrapure poly-Si: the Siemens Process mg-Si powder ca. 100. 000 t/a ca. $50/kg exhaust (Si. HCl 3, Si. CL 4, H 2, Metall Chloride) hot Si dust quartz tube heating HCl ‘fluidised bed’ reactor fractional distillation Siemens Silicon Plant Alternative Technology for PV: upgraded metallurgical Si, umg-Si, without using the gas phase Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Solar Cell Conversion Efficiency with 100% umg-Si Median per ingot New Metallization A B Emitter Each data point represents the median efficiency for one ingot (~ 10, 000 cells) • Median efficiency reaches 16% • Record cells approaching 17% Slide courtesy of Cali. Solar Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE 01/11/2010 Cali. Solar Confidential 10
High-Efficiency ISE Triple-Junction Solar Cells Ga 0. 65 In 0. 35 P tunnel diode Ga 0. 83 In 0. 17 As tunnel diode Ge substrate Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Realization : FLATCON® System by Concentrix n III-V based tandem cells n Cgeo = 500 x n Point focus Fresnel lenses n Housing made of glass Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Desertec - Vision of an Electricity Super Grid Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Intelligent Use of Energy (Smart Grids) Future Structure of Electricity Supply: Supergrid with distributed Responsibilities HGÜ Import/Export 110/220/380 k. V 10/20 k. V Command Unit Distribution Operation 400 V Intelligent Grid Operation Prognosis: Generation and Consumption Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Electricity Costs of Renewable Energies n Electricity Costs depend on number of operating hours n On-shore wind reaches parity with fossil energies n PV at good locations competitive with CSP Number: k. Whr/k. Wp for PV, CSP, and wind Slide courtesy of C. Kost (Fraunhofer ISE) Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Electricity Cost and Learning Curve Prediction n Steep PV learning curve results in costs that are competitive with conventional sources n (Onshore-) wind is competitive today n Offshore- wind has susbtantially higher costs, even long-term Source: C. Kost, Fraunhofer ISE Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Energy Use of Residential Buildings End Energy Consumption in k. Wh/m²a Current Average New Code 1995 New Code 2002 Heating Warm Water with Solarenergy use 3 -Liter House Other Electricity Passiv. Household Electricity + PV Zeroemission Source: H. M. Henning, Fraunhofer ISE Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
Employment in Selected Industries in Germany 1998 -2008 Quellen: Statistisches Bundesamt, Statistik der Kohlewirtschaft, BMU, Atomforum, VDA, Stand: 4/2009 © Fraunhofer ISE Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010
Conclusion: The Green Energy Future n The world is moving towards a green energy future; the open question is, how fast will we come there n The goal is 100% renewable energy generation at greatly increased efficiency in energy consumption n This transition of the global energy market provides exciting opportunities to transfer innovation into jobs n Countries that blaze this trail will have great economic advantages in the form of stable energy prices and jobs in high- and low-tech sectors n Fraunhofer institutes are ideally prepared to work with research institutions and industry in ECA countries to accelerate this exciting development Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin, May 7, 2010 © Fraunhofer ISE
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