Grandparents & Grandchildren Inflection Points for Baby Boomers Bruce Gregor www. findem. com. au Australian Population Association Conference 6 -8 December 2006 www. findem. com. au
1950 2050 1. 2 m Grandparents • Av Age 59 • First-timers Av Age 48 • 64% of Over-65 Pop. 5. 7 m Grandparents • Av Age 71 • First-timers Av Age 54 • 54% of Over-65 Pop. 3. 1 m Grandchildren • Av Age 13 • 36% of 25 -29 yr olds • 5% of Over-30’s 13. 8 m Grandchildren • Av Age 23 • 90% of 25 -29 yr olds • 23% of Over-30’s www. findem. com. au 2
1950 2006 2050 1. 2 m Grandparents • Av Age 59 • First-timers Av Age 48 • 64% of Over-65 Pop. 4. 1 m Grandparents • Av Age 65 • First-timers Av Age 51 • 75% of Over-65 Pop. 5. 7 m Grandparents • Av Age 71 • First-timers Av Age 54 • 54% of Over-65 Pop. 3. 1 m Grandchildren • Av Age 13 • 36% of 25 -29 yr olds • 5% of Over-30’s 8. 8 m Grandchildren • Av Age 18 • 67% of 25 -29 yr olds • 13% of Over-30’s 13. 8 m Grandchildren • Av Age 23 • 90% of 25 -29 yr olds • 23% of Over-30’s www. findem. com. au 3
Drivers of Change • Grandparents – Age specific Fertility – Childlessness – Distance from Grandchildren • Grandchildren – Mortality Improvement of Grandparents – Partnering Patterns of Mothers & Fathers – Distance from Grandparents www. findem. com. au 4
Two Generation Fertility www. findem. com. au 5
Two Generation Childlessness www. findem. com. au 6
Grandparent Life Expectancy using cohort mortality from age of birth of grandparent generation www. findem. com. au 7
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Divorce Rate www. findem. com. au 10
Net Overseas migration age profile 2003 www. findem. com. au 11
Issues for study in Kinship • • Age of first becoming a Grandparent and withdrawal from workforce Overseas resident Grandchildren and Grandparent travel Overseas resident Grandparents and Grandchildren travel Increased % of young adults with Grandparents – – • Influence on more conservative values for young adults? Grandchildren assisting Parents with carer roles for elderly relatives? Gifting wealth for school fees and housing finance Will step-children and step-grandchildren create more or less options for elder care? Segregated retirement lifestyles – Retirees with Grandchildren – Retirees without Grandchildren • Multi-generation households and unaffordable house prices www. findem. com. au 12
Other Studies of Kinship & Resources Links • UK - Emily Grundy – London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine – Using 1999 Omnibus Survey interviews with 1, 800 UK Households • USA - Kenneth W. Wachter – University of California, Berkley – Micro simulations projecting 3 generations of (white) kin and step kin in 1990 -2030 • Resources Links – This Paper and Results as a spreadsheet http: //www. findem. com. au/resourcesarchiver. php – Links to Grandparents sites http: //www. findem. com. au/resourcesarchivek. php www. findem. com. au 13
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