Grande Prairie Economic Housing Market Review

Grande Prairie Economic & Housing Market Review & Forecast Richard Goatcher Economic Analyst CHBA – Alberta

Alberta Net Migration total net migration - quarterly Source: Statistics Canada

Alberta Total Net Migration Quarterly year-over-year net change Source: Statistics Canada

Alberta - Total Net Migration net migration - annual Source: Statistics Canada, Forecast: CHBA-AB

Labour Force vs. Employment Alberta (thousands – seasonally unadjusted) Source: Statistics Canada

Employment Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House & Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River number of persons employed (, 000 s – 3 MMA) Source: Statistics Canada

Annual Average Employment Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House & Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River number of persons employed (, 000 s) Source: Statistics Canada

Unemployment Rates % Source: Statistics Canada

Five-year Mortgage Rate Monthly average per cent (conventional/posted) Source: Statistics Canada (Bank of Canada)

Alberta Inflation Rate CPI – y/yr % chg Source: Statistics Canada

Avg. Weekly Earnings Alberta (Seasonally adjusted) Source: Statistics Canada

Retail Sales Alberta seasonally adjusted (x 1, 000) Source: Statistics Canada

Energy and Petroleum Products 2010 = 100 Source: Statistics Canada Price Index

International Exports from Alta ($ Millions) Source: Statistics Canada

International Exports from Alta 3 mon. mvg. avg. Source: Statistics Canada Forestry Products ($ Millions)

Softwood Lumber Production - Alta 3 mon. mvg. avg. Source: Statistics Canada (cubic metres x 1, 000)

Farm Product Prices $/100 wt Source: Statistics Canada Alta Livestock

Farm Product Prices $/metric tonne Source: Statistics Canada Alberta

Percentage of Canadians who feel positive about their current financial situation Source: CIBC / Angus Reid

Value of New Residential Investment Alberta - Current Prices 6 month moving average (x $1, 000) Source: Statistics Canada

Building Permit Values ($000) Alberta Source: Statistics Canada

Alberta Housing Starts Urban Centres units (, 000 s) Source: CMHC

Total Housing Starts Alberta – All Areas units (annual) Source: CMHC, Forecast: CHBA-AB

Total Housing Starts Grande Prairie units (annual) Source: CMHC

Single-detached Housing Starts units Source: CMHC Grande Prairie

Single-detached Housing Starts Grande Prairie units (annual) Source: CMHC

Semi-detached Housing Starts Grande Prairie units (annual) Source: CMHC

Unabsorbed New Home Inventory Single & Semi-detached - Homeowner & Condo units (completed & unoccupied) Source: CMHC

Avg. Single-detached Absorbed Price Grande Prairie CA 6 month moving average Source: CMHC

Grande Prairie CA - Single-detached Units Absorptions by $ Range share of market Source: CMHC ($, 000)

Multi-family Housing Starts Grande Prairie CA units (annual) Source: CMHC

Unabsorbed New Home Inventory Row & Apartment - Homeowner & condo units (completed & unoccupied) Source: CMHC

Residential MLS® Sales Alberta SAAR units - 3 month moving avg. Source: CREA

Residential MLS® Average Sale Price Alberta 3 month moving average Source: CREA

Residential MLS® Sales units Source: CREA Grande Prairie

Residential MLS® Sales Grande Prairie units (annual) Source: CREA

MLS® Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio Grande Prairie Region 3 -month moving avg. Source: GPREB

Residential MLS® Average Sale Price Grande Prairie 6 month moving average Source: CREA

Residential MLS® Average Sale Price Grande Prairie annual Source: CREA

Apartment Vacancy Rate Alberta Cities 10, 000+ per cent (October surveys) Source: CMHC

Apartment Vacancy Rate Grande Prairie CA per cent (October surveys) Source: CMHC

Average Rent Alberta Cities 10, 000+ two-bedroom apartment Source: CMHC (October surveys)

Average Rent Grande Prairie CA two-bedroom apartment Source: CMHC (October surveys)

For Discussion Grande Prairie Outlook for 2016 Upside • Mortgage rates to remain “affordable. ” • New home inventory appears manageable. • New activist gov’ts in Edmonton & Ottawa will spend on infrastructure. • Inflation remains “benign”(for now). • Forestry & agriculture sectors holding up. • Low C$ helping exports to US. • Offshore investors see bargains & safe havens in Canadian RE. Downside • Reduced migration from the ROC. • Spending cuts in the energy sector will hamper job creation. • Resale home market favours buyer. • Tighter credit conditions as mortgage arrears increase. • Rental markets have softened. • Uncertainly over royalty reviews & carbon taxes (activist gov’t). • Consumer confidence eroded. • Falling C$ causing price pressures. • Rising IR’s in US putting upward pressure on fixed-rate mortgages here.

Grande Prairie Housing Review Richard Goatcher Economic Analyst CHBA - Alberta richard. goatcher@chbaalberta. ca 778. 269. 4148