Governor s Office of Emergency Services Statewide Exercise Program

Governor’s Office of Emergency Services Statewide Exercise Program Southern Region Catastrophic Earthquake Exercise partnering with: • United States Geological Survey • Golden Guardian 2008 • Dare to Prepare Campaign • Earthquake Country Alliance

Governor’s Office of Emergency Services Statewide Exercise Program • Ms. Curry Mayer, State Exercise Officer • State Exercise Program Update • New Exercise Page • Statewide Exercise Strategy • Training and Exercise Needs Assessment • SEMS/NIMS Integration 07/08

Governor’s Office of Emergency Services Statewide Exercise Program • State Emergency Responder Credentialing Program • New Specialist Certificates • State Emergency Plan/Administrative Orders • COOP/COG and ORP • GG 07 • The NEW FEMA • Federal DHS National Exercise Program

Governor’s Office of Emergency Services Southern Regional Administrator • Mr. Stephen Sellers – 12 Years at OES – Over 45 State and Federal Disasters – Southern Region contains 2/3 of the State’s diverse population – Nuclear Power Plants, 2 major port complexes, fires, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc – Regional Emergency Operations Center

Why we must act now. • 2007 is the 150 th anniversary of the last great San Andreas earthquake in Southern California. • Scientists are nervous about the potential for another great earthquake on the San Andreas fault, especially the southernmost section. • There will be major loss of life and property unless we each take action now to be ready, by securing our buildings and their contents.

Common beliefs about earthquakes • • “California will fall in the ocean someday” “Northridge was a big-one” “It won’t happen here” “Earthquakes happen in the morning, when it’s hot and dry, etc. ” • “The most damage in an earthquake is always at the epicenter” • “Scientists really do know how to predict earthquakes but don’t want to cause a panic”

The San Andreas - our master fault

Let’s talk about our faults SCEC Community Fault Model: 3 -dimensional structures of major faults

Major Southern California faults in 3 D So. Cal. Faults 3 D. mov The Puente Hills fault: • Four large earthquakes in the last 10, 000 years. • A potential 7. 5 magnitude earthquake on this fault will cause great devastation. • These earthquakes occur much less frequently than San Andreas earthquakes.

Southern California is Earthquake Country!

23 large earthquakes since 1933 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. Date 03. 10. 1933 03. 25. 1937 05. 18. 1940 10. 21. 1942 03. 15. 1946 04. 10. 1947 12. 04. 1948 07. 21. 1952 11. 21. 1952 03. 1954 04. 09. 1968 02. 09. 1971 10. 15. 1979 07. 08. 1986 10. 01. 1987 11. 23. 1987 11. 24. 1987 04. 22. 1992 06. 28. 1992 01. 17. 1994 10. 16. 1999 12. 2003 Time (local) Location 5: 54 pm Long Beach 8: 49 am San Jacinto 8: 37 pm Imperial Valley 9: 30 am Fish Creek Mountains 5: 49 am Walker Pass 7: 58 am Manix 3: 43 pm Desert Hot Springs 3: 52 am Kern County 11: 46 pm Bryson 1: 54 am Arroyo Salada 6: 29 pm Borrego Mountain 6: 01 am San Fernando 4: 54 pm Imperial Valley 2: 21 am North Palm Springs 7: 42 am Whittier Narrows 5: 54 pm Elmore Ranch 5: 15 am Superstition Hills 9: 50 pm Joshua Tree 4: 57 am Landers 8: 05 am Big Bear 4: 30 am Northridge 2: 46 am Hector Mine 11: 15 am San Simeon Magnitude 6. 4 6. 0 6. 9 6. 6 6. 0 6. 5 6. 0 7. 5 6. 2 6. 4 6. 5 6. 6 6. 4 5. 9 6. 2 6. 6 6. 1 7. 3 6. 7 7. 1 6. 5

Potential earthquake shaking Regions near major, active faults, will on average experience stronger shaking more frequently. This intense shaking can damage even strong, modern buildings. Regions distant from known, active faults. Will experience lower levels of shaking. In most earthquakes, only weaker masonry buildings would be damaged. However, very infrequent earthquakes could still cause strong shaking here.

Northridge earthquake • Jan. 17, 1994 • Magnitude 6. 7 • 10 x 10 mile section of fault moved, all underground, from Southeast to Northwest • $40 billion • 33+ deaths

“Ft. Tejon” Earthquake: our last “Big One” • Jan. 9, 1857 • Magnitude 7. 9 • 225 mile long rupture, from Northwest to Southeast • As long as 23 Northridge-sized faults • Today: at least $150 billion Northridge

Southern California in 1857

Southern California in 2007 • Over 23 million people • Fastest growing areas are close to the San Andreas

Our most likely next “Big One” • Southernmost San Andreas • Magnitude 7. 8+ • Shaking for 2 -4 minutes! • This will likely happen in our lifetimes, and could actually happen today.

Strong shaking throughout the most populated areas of So. Cal. • A regional disaster • You and your neighbors will need to rely on each other for several days: join or form a Community Emergency Response Team (CERT)

Sediment-filled valleys amplify shaking

Sediment-filled valleys amplify shaking

San. Andreas. Earthquake. mov

Most railroads, highways, aqueducts, power lines into LA cross the San Andreas fault

EQ +00: 00: 00 • 00: 00 Earthquake Nucleates • 00: 10 Electric Circuits Near Epicenter Begin to Trip Off • 00: 10 DWP et al. and ISO Op. Centers Initiate Power Shedding to Balance Grid • 00: 15 Progressive Blackout of Region Initiated to Prevent Cascading Failure • 00: 30 Strong Ground Motions Felt Throughout Southern California

EQ +00: 35 • 00: 35 State Warning Center Receives Calls from Southern Counties on CALWAS – “Expletive! We’re having an Earthquake” • 00: 45 Electrical Power Off in Most of the Southern California • 00: 01: 00 Earthquake Reported on Fox and CNN

EQ +00: 01: 00 • Strong Ground Motions Taper Off • Southern County 911 Centers are Saturated • Phone Systems Saturated • State Warning Center Begins Notification of Key State Agencies, Executive Staff, Governor’s Office

EQ +00: 03: 00 • CISN Posts Location of Earthquake Epicenter • Local Governments Responding to What They Can See • State Warning Center Initiates Activation of State Operations Center • Cal. Trans Initiates Remote Video Inspections of Bridges (If Operational)

EQ +00: 03: 00 • Cal. Trans Maintenance and Traffic Operations Personnel Mobilized to EOCs and Maintenance Facilities • Media Provides Initial Public Information on Emergency Alert System

EQ +00: 05: 00 • CISN Posts Epicenter Location, Magnitude • UC Berkeley Confirms Magnitude, Location to State Warning Center • Caltech Off-line • WCATWC Issues Tsunami Information Bulletin

EQ +00: 08: 00 • CISN Posts First Shake. Map From UC Berkeley • Shake. Map Downloaded to Federal, State and County Agencies • Shake. Map is the First “Image” of the Event – How Big? – How Bad? – Where?

EQ +00: 10: 00 • State OES Completes Notification of Executive Staff, State Agencies and FEMA • Governor and Staff Briefed • State OES Mobilizes Response Team To Sacramento and Southern Region – Statewide Mobilization of Fire and Law Mutual Aid System – California National Guard Mobilized

EQ +00: 20: 00 • USGS Issues Automated Aftershock Forecast (90% Probability of M 5 and Larger Aftershocks in Next 7 days) – 5% to 10% Probability of Larger Event

USGS Aftershock Assessment 7 Day Interval Calculated 20 Minutes After the Quake Magnitude -------5+ 6+ 7+ Probability -------100 50 Number -------46 (33 -59) 6 (1 -10) 1 (0 -2)

EQ +00: 30: 00 • OES GIS Staff are Recalled to Run HAZUS Loss Estimate • Fire Mutual Aid Dispatched to Damaged Areas and Staging Areas • Cal. Trans Imports Shake. Map into Damage Assessment Tools

EQ +00: 35: 00 OES Executive Requests Federal Assistance from FEMA, Based on Shake. Map (National Response Plan) – Urban Search & Rescue Task Forces (USAR) – Disaster Medical Assistance Teams (DMAT) – Disaster Mortuary Teams (DMORT) – Emergency Response Teams (ERT) – Liaisons to Emergency Support Functions (ESF) for National Response Plan

EQ +02: 00 • Initial HAZUS Damage Estimates Available • State Provides Initial Damage Estimates to FEMA and Request Presidential Disaster Declaration • Cal. Trans and Highway Patrol Coordinating Inspections and Traffic Controls • Cal. Trans Assessing Residual Capacity

HAZUS Estimates: Estimated Building Damage by Occupancy None Moderate Extensive Complete Commercial 65, 869 3, 015 1, 030 410 Government 1, 464 65 25 11 Industrial 10, 657 730 226 56 Multi. Residential 409. 108 47, 053 28, 837 17, 942 SF Residential 4, 295, 313 65, 055 2, 453 236 116, 046 32, 617 18, 671 TOTAL

Lifeline Damage Estimated Utility Pipeline Damage Leaks Breaks Potable Water 38, 276 9, 570 Waste Water 30, 274 7, 569 Natural Gas 32, 361 8, 091

Highway & Bridge Damage Estimated Damage to Transportation Moderate Complete >50% Function/Day 1 Highways 0 0 All Bridges 239 21 9, 283/9, 616

Secondary Impacts Estimated Fire Ignitions and Debris Generated Post EQ Fires 123 Ignitions 1. 79 Sq. Mi. Burned Debris Generated 5 Million tons 221, 920 Truck Loads 5, 579 Displaced

Care and Shelter Demand Total Estimated Displaced Households 6, 818, 000 8, 516 Population 20, 637, 512 Estimated Persons Seeking Shelter 2, 517

Electric Power & Potable Water Estimated Households Without Service Day 1 Day 30 Day 90 No Potable Water 1, 593, 365 1, 556, 943 1, 133, 432 184, 250 No Electric Power 88, 287 51, 469 3, 389 129

Estimated Casualties Injured Requiring Hospitalization Critical Care Hospitalization Fatalities 2: 00 AM 5, 232 1, 005 95 170 2: 00 PM 11, 026 1, 993 312 570 5: 00 PM 6, 843 1, 894 755 524

Economic Impact Income Losses $ 1, 761, 530 Building Damage $ 14, 770, 060 Total Building Related $ 16, 531, 590 Loss TOTAL ECONOMIC LOSS $ 18, 526, 350, 000

Common beliefs about earthquake preparedness • • • “It won't happen to me” “We’ll just pick up the pieces” “Just get in the doorway” “Having water and supplies is enough” “I’m prepared for anything” “My house has always done ok in earthquakes, it must be built very well” • “It will be so big, nothing can be done”

The Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety

www. daretoprepare. org