GOP Coalition 1968 -2004 Key Policies

GOP Coalition 1968 -2004 • Key Policies • Key Groups – – Sunbelt Evangelicals Affluent suburbanites White working class – Military spending – “Traditional family values” – Opposition to counter culture – End support for racial equality Silent Majority Speech I know it may not be fashionable to speak of patriotism or national destiny these days. But I feel it is appropriate to do so on this occasion …And so tonight -- to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans -- I ask for your support Nov. 3, 1969

1948 Electoral College Map

1988 Electoral College Map

1984 Mondale-Hart 1992 Clinton v. Tsongas Old vs. New Democrats 2008 Hilary v. Obama 2000 Gore v. Bradley

New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon. 5% or less margin 2004

2008 Election • The Declining White Working Class: Still Central • Election Outcomes in Purple States • White College Graduates: Growing and Trending Democratic, Especially in Purple States • New Minority Voters: Particularly Important in Fast Growing Purple States • It’s the Metros, Stupid • Growing Areas are Mostly Trending Democratic – Source: Ruy Teixeira and William Frey, The Political Geography of America's Purple States: Five Trends That Will Decide the 2008 Election, Brookings Institution Oct 10.

“Real Plumbers of Ohio” • Declining Income – average annual income of “plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters” $47, 930. (BLS 2007) – Income increased 15. 5% 2000 -07, but consumer prices increased 17. 7% • Health Care – 2000 57% of firms with less than 10 employees – 2000 45% of firms (Kaiser Family Foundation ) • Paul Krugman, Real Plumbers of Ohio, Oct 20, 2008

Matt Dowd on Hispanic Vote • "We can't survive as a party without getting more of the Hispanic vote. ” • “Both political parties understand that it's a demographic that is probably one of the most important – you know, who's going to have majority status in this country. " • As a realistic goal, we have to get somewhere between 13 and 15 percent of the black vote and 38 to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote

GOP- anti immigrant rhetoric • GOP Controlled House passes Sensenbrenner Bill- “felonization of all undocumented immigrants” • NRSC Ad links illegal immigrants to terrorists -http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Aj. Vd. ALIgf. BI

Biggest Protests in a Generation

Bye-bye GOP % Hispanic Vote, exit polls

Oportunidad BO: I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message. • Voiceover: The cost of a college education is a real worry for many families. But under the Obama Plan a student can earn the first $4, 000 of tuition through community service. Putting a college education within everyone's reach. And the Obama Plan offers scholarships to recruit more teachers to make sure our children are ready (smart/prepared).

Ataques (Radio Version) • • ANNOUNCER 1: Wow, have you heard the terrible lies that John Mc. Cain and the Republicans are saying about Barack Obama? How horrible. [ANNOUNCER 2: ] Well, it doesn't surprise me. The republicans will say anything to distract the public from the economy. [ANNOUNCER 1: ] My neighbor - who has 2 kids - lost her job and her health insurance last week. And her husband, who works in construction, is about to lose his. I don't want to hear any more attacks. I want to know what the candidates will do for us. [ANNOUNCER 2: ] Well, that's why Barack Obama is my candidate. Instead of continuing George Bush's same failed policies - like John Mc. Cain wants to do - Barack Obama understands what our community needs from a President. He has specific ideas to help us. [ANNOUNCER 1: ] Under Obama, the middle class will receive three times more relief than with Mc. Cain. Obama will cut our taxes! [ANNOUNCER 2: ] And what matters to me is that Obama has a plan to give health insurance to all. My neighbor will be saved! [ANNOUNCER 1: ] Barack Obama and the democrats are the change we need .

Why Not an EDM? • Swing Member of Coalition – College educated voters – White working class • Very Safe – Latinos/African Americans – Women