GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh National Center for Atmospheric Research With acknowledgements to Timothy Schmit (CIMSS) Gary Ellrod (NESDIS) Anthony Schreiner (CIMSS) May 12, 2004
Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow FAA AWRP NASA NOAA NCAR, MIT, FSL, NRL, others. Av. SP, ASAP, CIMSS. NESDIS, NCEP, AWC, others. Funding, Personnel, Data, Techniques, R&D. Automated Aviation Wx Products/Guidance • • Volcanic Ash Turbulence (clear air, convectively-induced, terrain-i) Icing Ceiling and Visibility Winds (flight level and below) Convection (initiation, diagnosis, nowcast, forecast) Space Weather (health/comm hazards)
Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow AWRP Aviation Wx Products • Volcanic Ash • • • Turbulence (CAT, CIT) Icing Ceiling and Visibility Convection Winds (flight level and below) Space Weather (health/comm) Test Products NCAR, MIT websites for structured user trials. Operational Products NOAA AWC Operational home & distribution point. Operational Users • FAA Flight Service Stations • • • Airline met/dispatch depts. Airport operators Air traffic met support (CWSU) Pilot / cockpit Commercial Av. Wx. services Volcanic ash centers (VAAC’s)
Aviation Weather Product Overview AWRP Aviation Wx Products • Volcanic Ash • • • Turbulence (CAT, CIT) Icing Ceiling and Visibility Convection Winds Space Weather (health/comm) Current: Icing fcst product. Current: VA SIGMET display Future: VA analysis & fcst. Current: CAT fcst product.
Aviation Weather Product Overview AWRP Aviation Wx Products Current: C&V test product. • Volcanic Ash • • • Turbulence (CAT, CIT) Icing Ceiling and Visibility Convection Winds Space Weather (health/comm) Current: Convective nowcast. Future: Improved 3 -D winds. Possible Future: Polar route space wx.
Generalized AWRP Product Synthesis NWP INPUT - RUC - Eta - GFS - Other Relevant Obs - METARS PIREPS & AIREPS - RAOBS - Radar - Others Climatology Other Forecasts Nowcasts, or methods. EXPERT SYSTEM-BASED FORECAST BLENDING PROCESS (Weighted Simple Additive Model) GOES & GOES Products POES & POES Products Future methods & sources. FORECAST INTEGRATION WEIGHTS Based on recent forecast performance. Display: Website, ADDS, Cockpit, Other. Analysis and/or Forecast Product DATABASE FORECAST COMPONENT PERFORMANCE. Feedback Loop
GOES-R Enabling Capability HES/ABI Sounding Improvement - 4 -D improvement in stability, winds, moisture. Resolution: mountain waves Impact on Av. Products - Turbulence Likelihood field. - Convective initiation, nowcast, forecast. - Turbulence Likelihood field. GOES-8 Simulated GOES-R Ozone Detection (Schmidt & Li) - New 9. 6 μm ABI channel for obs at high temporal/spatial resolution. - HES ozone accuracy. - Synergistic ABI/HES use. Water Vapor Tracer (Wimmers) - Synergistic ABI/HES use. Turbulence Likelihood field via tropopause folding.
GOES-R Enabling Capability Geo Lightning Mapper Cloud Properties - Cloud masking - Cloud top height/temperature - Cloud top phase (ice/water) Fog & Low Cloud Detection Impact on Av. Products Critical Improvement to: - Convective Nowcasting - Diagnosis of severe oceanic Conv. - Convective storm evolution. - Improved NWP initialization. - Early volc eruption alert? (Electrified eruption cloud) Critical Improvement to: - Ceiling and visibility products - In-flight icing products Critical to: - Airport ops - Overnight flts - AM ops GOES-10 Simulated GOES-R
A Focus on GOES-R Impacts – Volcanic Ash GOES-R Enabling Capabilities • ABI - All spectral channels for ash (8) • Key IR upper-level SO 2 (7. 3, 8. 5 μm) • Spatial & temporal resolution (5 -15 min; 0. 5 -2 km) - Continuity for plume tracking - Resolution for hot spot analysis • HES/ABI Satwinds for plume tracking. • Temp/wind profiles for plume heights. • CO 2 slicing for plume heights. • Others. . Intermediate GOES-R Products
Enabling Intermediate GOES-R Products for VA Ellrod RGB-rendered ash analysis adjusted for day and night. Thermal hot-spot monitoring for eruption alert. AWRP Product Value Added: - Fusion - Automation, animation - User interface - Edit/display tools - History database - etc. Upper-level SO 2 with ABI 15 min frequency. Automated guidance/support to AWC, VAAC’s, others.
. . and many more impacts and opportunities to improve aviation safety and efficiency.
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