Globalisation and national statistics Robin Lynch UK Office for National Statistics
Globalisation and national statistics • Why is globalisation happening? • Transport is easier • Barriers are lower • Information is accessible (Internet) 2
Globalisation and national statistics • Transport is easier • Bigger ships • More flights • Cheaper tickets 3
Globalisation and national statistics • Barriers are lower • Less trade taxes • Shared regulations (WTO) • Information access allows management at a distance 4
Globalisation and national statistics • What effect does it have? • More international transactions • Global business • Vertical as well as horizontal business structures 5
Globalisation and national statistics • International firms take advantage • Organised to make good use of labour markets • Capital markets 6
Globalisation and national accounts • National accounts aim to measure the economic activities of a nation • Multi-national activities are a measurement problem for national accountants 7
Globalisation and national accounts • Once upon a time – People lived in a sovereign country – a country – People worked in the country – All of production was in the country – Output was sold mostly in the country – people bought domestic produce 8
Globalisation and national accounts • People lived in a country But now • People leave their country (migration) • People have second homes (residency) • People live abroad some of the time • People holiday and spend a lot of money abroad 9
Globalisation and national accounts • People worked in the country But now • People work abroad • People send back money 10
Globalisation and national accounts All of production was in the country But now • Multinational companies span the world • • Design centre in UK Production in Eastern Europe Marketing in United States Financial centre in The Netherlands 11
Globalisation and national accounts • Output was sold in the country But now • Output is sold abroad more • Output is sold to foreign tourists • Output is sold on the world wide web 12
Globalisation and national accounts • consumers bought local produce But now • We buy from abroad more • We buy as we travel abroad • We buy on the internet 13
Globalisation and national statistics • Some statistics are affected • • • Population – migration statistics (EU) Income – workers’ remittances Expenditure – Household spending GDP – value added Profits Return on capital 14
Globalisation and national statistics • There is a single market for economic activity • Policy issues • Multinationals use least cost options • Can move production base quickly, according to cost 15
Globalisation and national accounts • Intellectual property – a special challenge • Created on site • Shared amongst many • Can we measure a capital service between countries? 16
Globalisation and national accounts • National business surveys can no longer collect market sales and costs • Transfer pricing to minimise global tax burden undermines traditional methods • How can we retain the status quo? 17
Globalisation and national accounts • Ask firms to estimate an “arms-length” value for non-marketed internationally traded goods and services within the multinational • Use these values to produce a traditional production accounts for the national activity 18
Globalisation and national accounts Are we attempting the impossible? • Do national production functions mean anything? • Can we measure productivity for national economic activity? 19
Globalisation and national accounts • Can we collect the necessary data? • Will multi-nationals cooperate (and so reveal their tax engineering activities)? • Even if they wanted to, how can they estimate the value of non-market transactions? 20
Globalisation and national accounts • What’s the alternative? • Use the income approach • Measure the employment income of the activity • Estimate the operating surplus as the sum of returns to capital assets plus the “entrepreneurial turn” 21
Globalisation and national accounts • GDP through expenditures • Reduce business surveys and use consumer surveys and other demand sources • Make more use of administrative sources (often tax sources) 22
Globalisation and national accounts • The way ahead for business statistics • Use multi-national supply-use frameworks to ensure consistency • Cut this up to get country pictures, rather than building the international picture like a jigsaw of country estimates 23
Globalisation and national accounts • In the mean time, what can be done? • Large business units • International cooperation • Focus on business profit centres • Transfer pricing – standard methods 24
Globalisation and national statistics The message • Globalisation is a challenge for national statistics • We may have to accept lower quality national pictures • National statistics are a part of a global picture 25
Скачать презентацию Globalisation and national statistics Robin Lynch UK Office
449482ea6f84398e481369abd2c1faeb.ppt